Next Up - Houston In The Sweet Sixteen

This one is going to be intense and possibly great.

It was pretty clear some time ago that Kelvin Sampson has built a powerhouse at Houston. Arriving in 2014 after his five year show-cause expired (there was some trouble during his time at Indiana), Sampson quickly got the Cougar’s house in order. After a difficult first year, Samson took Houston to two NITs and since then, the Cougars have been an NCAA regular.

He’s built a culture that’s pretty amazing really. Houston’s defense is best-in-class. Sampson places a priority on tough-minded, team-oriented players. And you might as well add resilient to that list too.

Houston has had insane injuries this season. Most programs would crumble losing player like this: Terrance Arceneaux went down in December with an Achilles injury. JoJo Tugler departed the scene in early March with a foot injury. Ramon Walker suffered a severe bone bruise in his knee that saw it swell up to twice its normal size. He just returned to action this weekend.

And J’Wan Roberts is dealing with a shin injury that he apparently reaggravated Sunday against Texas A&M.

In spite of all this, Houston keeps winning. They lost back-to-back games to Iowa State and TCU in January and Kansas in early February. No sin there - winning at KU is extremely difficult.

Their last loss came when Iowa State blew them out in the Big 12 Finals, 69-41. However, that was in the championship, meaning that a very thin Houston had to go three straight days. It was eye-popping to see Houston down by 30 in this game but not entirely surprising, given the injuries, and also not particularly relevant.

For some context, the Cyclones have gone on to beat South Dakota State by 17 and Washington State by 11. The big win over Houston looked great but didn’t really mean that much more than the next two. Houston, as far as we can tell, just ran out of gas.

Notably, that almost happened against Texas A&M Sunday - but it didn’t. Starters Ja’Vier Francis, Emanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer and point guard Jamal Shead all fouled out. Roberts, the fifth starter, finished with four.

But Anderson Garcia, who has only hit nine threes all season, hit a clutch trey to force overtime and in OT, walk-on Ryan Elvin hit a clutch free throw. These guys have tremendous team unity.

From Duke’s point of view though, you have to consider this: in the last three games, Houston lost by 30, clobbered #16 Longwood by 40, which was no surprise, and then barely held on to beat A&M in overtime, 100-95, which was a surprise, if only because A&M ran up 95 points on America’s best defense.

We have a world of respect for Houston and their unbelievable unity and resilience. People talk a lot about the importance of culture but Houston shows it every game.

Their depth will most likely limit their run in this tournament, if not in this game, then probably in the Elite Eight matchup, particularly if it is against high-pressure Marquette. But the Cougars are playing in Dallas, just 3 ¹⁄₂ hours up the road from Houston.

Duke has issues of its own of course. This would be a great game to have Caleb Foster, who was a very reliable presence prior to his injury. And of course Jeremy Roach dislocated his pinky against James Madison while Jaylen Blakes took a nasty fall. Both are probably fine for the Sweet Sixteen matchup with Houston, but things can add up.

And even with injury problems, Houston is a very tough out.

One of the things we noticed against the Aggies was how great Houston is at something very simple: just putting your hands up when someone is driving. They never reach; their hands just stay up. And they do it well enough to not only make the shot harder, but to actually occasionally touch it.

It’s a small thing but telling thing. Houston is very well coached.

But depth is a real concern. At one point against A&M, due to foul trouble, Sampson had no choice but to go to a five-guard lineup, and late in overtime, had to turn to Elvin.

Houston won’t be as tired against Duke - they’ll have several days of rest - but like we said about Kansas, they’re missing a lot of guys and it’s likely to catch up to them at some point.

Duke played very well in Brooklyn this past weekend. Vermont was tough but ultimately not in Duke’s class. James Madison appeared to be though before Duke annihilated them behind a brilliant game from Jared McCain.

A couple of things were lost in the excitement of that victory: Kyle Filipowski picked up a couple of cheap fouls and finished with four and Mark Mitchell finished with just two points, shooting 1-6.

Houston will counter Duke’s bigs with Ja’Vier Francis, (6-8/240) and Roberts, (6-7/235)

They both got in foul trouble against Texas A&M Sunday, with Francis fouling out in 19 minutes and Roberts picking up four in 33. In his case, he also has his shin injury to deal with.

We wouldn’t count on both of them getting into foul trouble again. However, given the physical way that Houston plays, we can easily imagine Filipowski or Mitchell - or both - getting into some foul trouble themselves.

For one, Filipowski is not nearly as good about not reaching when he puts his hands up for a shooter. He’s drawn a lot of fouls reaching.

And for another, while Houston has serious depth concerns, as previously noted, they have something Duke does not have and can not get: vast experience.

Roberts is a grad student. Malik Wilson is in his fifth year.

Elvin is a senior. Damian Dunn - a native of Kinston, by the way - is a 6-5 senior. LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead are both seniors. Francis is a junior. Ramon Walker is a junior. Emanuel Sharp is a redshirt sophomore.

These guys have been through a lot, have learned a lot of lessons, and they’re tough as nails.

That's particularly true for Shead.

A 6-1 point guard, he’s powerfully built. He’s not a great shooter, but he’s really smart and he’s a pass-first point guard. He’s not really a conventional player in some ways, but he’s a problem for Duke. As good as they are, Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain and Tyrese Proctor are not great match-ups for Shead, who might be able to get any of them into foul trouble.

This might be a game where you see a good bit of Blakes, who is built somewhat like Shead. Come to think of it, he’s a pretty good Duke answer to Houston’s approach anyway.

The truth is, this game is going to be physical and require mental toughness, That’s what Duke expected from JMU and didn’t really get (in fairness, it didn’t help when star Terrence Edwards picked up two early fouls, but on the other hand, he played 29 minutes and never got another).

Guard play is also likely to be a big deal. Houston has seen the Duke-JMU video of course and one of their very tough defenders is going to attach himself to McCain like Gorilla Glue. Roach shot 5-8 against JMU and several of those were on crafty drives. That won’t be as easy against Houston. And the willowy Proctor has been an erratic shooter at Duke. That’s not to say that he can’t heat up in a hurry - clearly he can - but Houston will come after Duke’s guards. Don’t be surprised if they work Proctor over pretty well.

They’ll also come after Duke’s bigs and anyone in between.

It’s just the nature of what Sampson has built there. People expected them to struggle a bit in the Big 12 in their debut season this year, but that didn’t happen.

The only thing that hurt Houston this year were injuries. Houston is 34-4 in spite of those injuries and showed immense character.

But Duke has shown a lot of character too. If they can deal with Houston’s tough defense - while playing some of their own - the Blue Devils certainly have a chance to play in the Elite Eight Sunday.

By the way, no one has a more dramatic or cooler family story than Sampson.

A native of Robeson County, Sampson’s father participated in the legendary Battle of Hayes Pond. If you don’t know this story, you really should. It’s pretty great. Check out the picture at the bottom of the two Lumbees. It’s beautiful.