Is it time to change the starting lineup?

Things aren’t working. Again.

The Golden State Warriors starting lineup has confounded them all year long. For years, the team’s starting lineup has been exceptional, and the biggest issue they’ve faced is whether or not they can survive the minutes when Steph Curry and his fellow starters head to the bench.

But this year everything has changed. The addition of Chris Paul and the emergence of first of third-year players have turned the bench into one of the league’s elite. Had I told you that before the season, you would probably peg the Dubs for contention in the West; instead, they sit in the last play-in tournament spot, courtesy of a starting five that has struggled throughout the year.

After abandoning the same starting five that was thoroughly dominant en route to the 2022 championship — Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney — Kerr finally seemed to have found something special in February. Thompson headed to the bench to be a super-sub, replaced by rookie Brandin Podziemski. The ultra reliable Looney also hit the pine, while Green slid up a position to the five, accommodating a third-year leap from Jonathan Kuminga.

It worked for a while. Golden State was one of the best teams in the NBA in February, despite Paul’s absence. The starting five was the primary reason why.

And now they’ve come tumbling back to earth, as punctuated by Monday’s loss to the New York Knicks, in which the starting five combined for just 52 points in 139 minutes, on 18-for-51 shooting. The five-player bench squad of Paul, Thompson, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Gary Payton II, and Moses Moody on the other hand, erupted for 60 points in just 102 minutes, on 24-for-37 shooting.

It feels like Kerr must be giving some consideration to another starting lineup change, in hopes of finding some modicum of momentum in the final month of the regular season. There’s a question tree for this, though.

The first question is simple: Should the Warriors change their starting lineup?

If the answer is “no,” then the question tree is done. Let’s assume the answer is “yes,” though.

The next question is this: Who should enter the starting lineup?

I see two players that you can make an easy case for: Thompson and Moody. The reasons for and against both is pretty clear. For Klay, a return to the starting five means giving the team a boost of spacing and scoring that they’re desperately lacking. Despite Klay’s relative down year, he’s still second on the team in points per game, and third in three-point percentage (behind Curry and, hilariously, team-leader Green).

On paper, the team’s second-best scorer and second-best shooter is a no-brainer to be in the starting lineup, especially when they have rapport with the rest of the starting five. But Thompson has struggled a bit when starting, and thrived off the bench. Not only is he finding a good rhythm, but he’s anchoring a bench unit that is arguably the best in the league.

Moody’s case is a little less extreme. His strong all-around play and lack of mistakes would do wonders for a starting lineup that struggles with missed defensive assignments, low energy, and poor turnovers. But the fact that he’s been trusted with just eight minutes in the last two games makes it seem like perhaps Kerr doesn’t see him as one of the team’s best players; and is that someone you want starting?

You could also make a case for Jackson-Davis, who has been a revelation, but it complicates the spacing. Paul could be an addition, but the Warriors would have to stagger minutes fairly dramatically to make sure he’s still on the court when Curry rests.

The next question on the question tree: Who should leave the starting lineup?

There are really only two options here: Podziemski and Wiggins. Both have been struggling mightily since returning to the lineup on March 6 against the Milwaukee Bucks. In seven games since then, Podziemski is averaging just 8.1 points per game while shooting 40.8% from the field, and Wiggins 11.1 points while shooting 42.0%.

Keeping Wiggins in the starting five is a higher-risk, higher-reward scenario: he’s shown flashes of being the two-way star that made the 2022 All-Star starting lineup, but at his worst he has single-handedly tanked games for the Warriors. Podziemski, on the other hand, probably has a lower ceiling (for now), but even in his bad games he seems to make good decisions, stay locked in on defense, and gobble up rebounds.

Given the lackadaisical nature that the Warriors have been showing off lately, my inclination would be to replace Wiggins with Moody. The trio of Moody, Kuminga, and Podziemski will provide energy and hustle alongside Curry and Green, while keeping the bench trio of Thompson, Paul, and Jackson-Davis intact (and adding Wiggins to it).

Will it work? Who knows. But the Dubs are desperate for something.