7 Lakers Off Season Predictions

Seven Lakers Off-Season Predictions

As the NBA prepares to enter its silly season, (the 2021 NBA Draft is July 29th and the beginning of Free Agency is August 2nd), there are only a few more days of relative silence before mayhem ensues.

Accordingly, a number of writers and commentators have tried to analyze the Lakers cap situation, free agent priorities, and willingness to entertain things like sign and trades, all in an attempt to visualize who besides LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be on the roster after those draft and free agency bonanzas.

With that in mind, I tried to peer into my own, admittedly faulty crystal ball in hopes of predicting a number of moves I think the team just may consider making in the next couple of weeks. Of course, if history has taught us anything it’s that most trades come out of nowhere, and free agency rarely plays out the way we think it will. Nonetheless, I’m taking my shot, so to speak, and laying out seven moves I think Lakers GM Rob Pelinka and company may indeed make to reshape the roster for the upcoming season.

1) LA trades its 1st round pick on draft day for a future, lottery protected pick: I’m guessing that the front office would like to use this asset to improve the team now rather than draft and develop someone in this range, regardless of the team’s recent success at doing precisely that. Sure, if someone that the scouting department rated highly drops to them, Sponge Rob may decide to go ahead and keep the pick. But I still think it is more likely LA will want to use this asset to go after a veteran.

Unfortunately, it is also likely that any decent trade using that asset may not present itself until free agency gets going, and by then the team will have had to make the pick, almost surely reducing its value. Therefore, I think Pelinka will trade the pick asap (on draft day) so the team acquiring it can tell LA who to draft, then use this acquired future 1st in a larger trade around free agency.

2) Kyle Kuzma is Gone: Gordon Sumner, aka Sting from the 80s rock band Police once said ‘if you love somebody, set them free’. In Kyle’s case, this means it’s time Pelinka moves him to a team where he won’t be permanently stuck behind two all league forwards. Plus, dude’s time is running out. He’s turning 26 this weekend, and would almost surely love a chance to fill up the stat sheet as starter over the next two years, allowing him to opt out and test free agency before his age 28 season.

Oddly, given his mostly average production as a bench player, this may be the rare case where a guy with starter skills, a high media profile and inherent marketability may actually offer more value as a high octane scorer to a small market team looking for some social media magic than he does to his current team coming off the bench. I mean, I love Kyle and his sweet ‘do, but it feels like it’s time to set him free.

3) Montrezl Harrell opts in, and gets traded into cap space: At this point, it feels like LA has seen the best (regular season) and the worst (playoffs) of Harrell’s game, and would probably prefer he opt out. However, his value has taken enough of a hit in the last two postseasons that he may decide another year at the league average may be as good as it gets, and just like the season before when he left the Clippers following a similarly underwhelming playoff run, opt-in with hopes of resuscitating his value and re-entering the fray a summer later.

Unfortunately for Harrell, his game most likely is what it is, which is something LA doesn’t really need. I’d guess that after he opts in, Pelinka finds a team with cap space who likes Harrell’s regular season energy and doesn’t mind eating that salary (and giving up a 2nd rounder?) to get him.

4) JaVale McGee is back: Another 80s rock band, Cinderella (have I dated myself yet?) once sang that ‘you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone’. Well, just like the unheralded yet shockingly pleasing return of Anthony Irwin to the Silver Screen and Roll family reminded many of us how much the eurostumbler’s daily snark and nihilistic takes were sorely missed, the collection of slow feet and vertical challenges featured by every Lakers center over 6’8'' reminded fans how much value McGee and Dwight Howard brought in the previous year.

JaVale’s nicely-aging, veteran leader profile, still-solid athleticism and multiple championships may mean he gets an offer slightly above the minimum this upcoming season, but if he is down for the vet’s minimum and a return to LA, I think fans who missed his brand of energy and activity will welcome him back to Staples with open arms. Plus, we get Pam in the deal.

5) Talen Horton Tucker is part of a sign and trade: Simply predicting that LA will participate in a sign and trade is risky enough given the limitations such a move puts on future flexibility. Unfortunately, the majority of trades take place during the summer, so if Pelinka wants to take advantage of the young guard’s unexpectedly elevated value this season, it would have to be part of a sign and trade.

Of course, such a move will make juggling the cap incredibly difficult, but in my opinion Pelinka isn’t paid to play it safe. If the right deal presents itself, I think he will include the pick (or two) he acquired in the above moves, along with his most enticing young player, in an attempt to pry away a veteran who will move the needle immediately. If I knew who that was I’d already be in Vegas, but my out-on-a-limb guess is that THT is part of a sign and trade that nets LA a talented, Spencer Dinwiddie/Kyle Lowry type. Which would also mean...

6) Dennis Schroder is gone: Much has been made about the limitations LA will face in replacing the talented yet mercurial German point guard if he leaves outright, but I think Pelinka is equally wary of signing him to a negative trade value deal like the 100+ million dollar one Dennis is rumored to be pursuing. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say I think my hypothetical THT trade will have a point guard as its primary target, and will likely result in the starting job no longer being available for Schroder anyway.

For all of his strengths, LA needs a shooter/playmaker/defender at the point, and on most nights Dennis brings about one and a half of those three skills. Furthermore, his game’s efficiency is directly connected to his ability to attack the paint, and like Kuzma hunting for minutes, Schroder will always be third in line for paint privileges behind LeBron and AD.

Also, the Knicks have cap space this summer, and Schroder is a classic example of a New York overpay waiting to happen. My guess is, he’s gone.

7) Alex Caruso is back: Whew. That was close. There are definitely scenarios where both THT and Schroder are back, meaning that LA would have a hard time justifying paying four guards (including KCP) above mid-level money. When it comes to playing alongside LeBron, Caruso is as critical if not more so than either guy, and given THT’s restricted status and LAs aforementioned inability to replace a departing Schroder with anyone even close via free agency, a trade for a guy like Dinwiddie or Lowry (or Lonzo Ball?) along with letting Schroder walk would at least make resigning Caruso a viable option.

It is not impossible he gets a starting offer somewhere else, and as he enters his age 27/28 season it would be a tough offer to pass up. However, I’d also bet that if we all know how critical Caruso is to this team’s success, (did you see them play defense when he was out? Yuck) then LeBron James, NBA super genius, surely knows. In fact, even if a trade scenario doesn’t pan out to replace Schroder, I’d prefer Caruso as a starter on this particular team.

Either way, the backcourt situation between Schroder, Caruso and THT (KCP aint going nowhere unless Bradley Beal is coming in to take his spot) is undoubtedly the biggest LA story entering the draft and free agency. But somehow, some way, it just feels like the team will find a way to keep the Bald Mamba right where ALL Mamba’s belong, in Purple and Gold.