Why Michigan basketball’s rough 24 hours of recruiting could be a win-win for the program
Juwan Howard will still have a formidable team in the Big Ten next season depending on a few variables.
Juwan Howard’s first season as head coach of Michigan basketball appeared to set the table for a loaded future. The Wolverines were poised to enter the NCAA tournament as a projected No. 5 seed, and had four top-100 recruits committed for next season, with the possibility of adding another five-star prospect in California-bred shooting guard Josh Christopher.
But since the season was prematurely canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, it feels like Michigan basketball has taken hit after hit.
Promising sophomores David DeJulius and Colin Castleton each announced they intended to transfer. Christopher ultimately picked Arizona State. And now five-star big man Isaiah Todd, ranked as the No. 13 overall player in the senior class, has announced he’ll pursue a professional career rather than honor his commitment to the Wolverines.
Todd was already considered one of the top recruits in his class by the time he was in eighth grade, attending USA Basketball junior minicamps early in his freshman year of high school. He had been ranked as the best recruit in Michigan basketball history by 247 Sports since the site started tracking these matters in the early ‘00s. While Todd’s star diminished slightly as his high school career went on, he was still a major piece for Michigan, projecting as a freshman starter replacing four-year stalwart Jon Teske in the middle for the Wolverines.
Todd’s intention to turn pro rather than show up in Ann Arbor had been rumored for months, but it still stung for a Michigan program that was reeling from Christopher’s decision hours earlier. While this has been a tough offseason for Howard and the Wolverines, there’s the chance Todd’s decision turns out to be a win-win both for both the player and the program. Here’s how.
Todd could benefit from his decision to to turn
While Todd hasn’t announced whether he will play internationally yet, his decision to bypass college for the allures of pro ball could be similar to the one made by R.J. Hampton a year ago. Like Todd, Hampton was considered a five-star recruit and a likely one-and-done. Like Todd, he decided bypassing college to turn pro was the best option for his future. It looks like he’s going to be proven correct.
Hampton spent this past season playing for the New Zealand Breakers of the NBL. He had a solid all-around season, showing off his strong driving ability and his projectable supplemental scoring and playmaking. We had him projected as the No. 14 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft in our latest mock.
While it’s impossible to say if Hampton would be projected higher in the draft if he played college basketball, there’s no doubt turning pro early has its benefits. For one, Hampton spent a season playing against fellow professionals who are grown men, which should give him leg up in transitioning to the physicality of the NBA. There’s also the fact that often times prospects who play overseas stay away from the harsh critical light on their shortcomings that many college players face with greater access to the their games.
For as talented as Todd is, there is a reason he isn’t projected as a first-round pick in ESPN’s latest 2021 NBA mock draft. Todd hasn’t proven he has the strength or instincts to captain a defense as a rim protecting center, has struggled to efficiently finish inside, and doesn’t yet have consistent shooting range out to the three-point arc. Perhaps those weaknesses won’t be as exposed should he chose to play internationally, and he can get a team to draft him in the first round off the potential he showed in high school.
Struggling at Michigan would have been the worst case scenario for Todd’s draft stock. If it happens overseas, at least he has some built in protections of playing against adults. He has more margin for error by turning pro, both in terms of the immediate financial incentive, and how he’ll be evaluated by NBA scouts.
Michigan should still be competitive in the Big Ten without Todd and Christopher
Adding a pair of five-star prospects in Todd and Christopher would have been great for Michigan’s overall talent level next year and the perception of Howard as a recruiter to future classes. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen. That’s okay: there’s a chance the Wolverines are still highly formidable in the Big Ten next season, depending on how a few different variables play out.
The biggest piece of the equation for Michigan next year is getting back Isaiah Livers, the junior forward who has tested the NBA Draft waters. Livers had a solid junior year despite battling a groin injury, averaging 13 points per game while shooting 40 percent from three-point range and providing some essential floor spacing. While Livers is considered one of college basketball’s most underrated players to sharp observers, he still isn’t considered a major NBA prospect just yet. ESPN has him ranked as only the No. 99 prospect in the 2020 NBA Draft. In a draft with 60 picks, there’s a chance he still decides to return to school.
Could Todd’s decision to turn pro influence Livers’ call on his own future? Todd will be one less person to compete with for minutes at Michigan. Livers is also a much safer bet to be productive for the Wolverines than Todd would have been should he return to school.
Michigan also has a potential breakout candidate in Franz Wagner as he enters his sophomore season. Wagner returned from a wrist injury that kept him out at the start of the season to have a productive freshman year, averaging 11.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. The 6’8 wing could be poised for massive leap in production with increased usage which should come now that he won’t be sharing the ball with Todd and Christopher as they try to boost their NBA stock as freshmen.
Howard still has a strong freshman class arriving. Center Hunter Dickinson, ranked No. 32 overall by 247 Sports, should be an instant-impact recruit as a 7’2 big man filling in for Teske. Terrance Williams is a 6’6 forward out of D.C. ranked No. 85 overall in his class who provides length, a burgeoning face-up game, and plenty of untapped upside at the college level. Zeb Jackson is a tough point guard who should be looking to prove himself after getting largely overshadowed at Montverde Academy this past season.
Howard laid the groundwork for a strong future at Michigan even without Todd and Christopher. If Livers returns, he could have one of the best one-two punches in the Big Ten with him and Wagner. Point guard play will likely be an issue for the Wolverines, but Todd and Christopher weren’t going to solve that.
Michigan didn’t hit a grand slam they appeared poised for in Howard’s first full recruiting class, but the program still has talent both next year and into the future.