A Way Too Early Look At The Summer Of 2020 PART 3 Of 3: Free Agency

A Way Too Early Look At The Summer Of 2020 PART 3 Of 3: Free Agency

As we wait for the hiatus to end, I decided to jump into some posts I was working on for the off season and get them out early. I apologize if they are a little rough.

In Part 1 of this three part series I summarized the assets Rob Pelinka will have at his disposal when the team does finally commence off season business, while Part 2 offered up a handful of trades I could see being either proposed to or proposed by LA. This third and final part looks at how the team may approach free agency, both their own free agents as well as some around the league they may target.

It is important to note that I am assuming two things: One, that Anthony Davis re-signs, and two, that LA operates as an over-the-cap team as a consequence. If AD leaves in free agency this is all moot...as would be LA's immediate future.

So baring a major shake-up, here is how I think Rob and his team may approach free agency.

Lakers Own Free Agents:

Options:

Rajon Rondo, player option
JaVale McGee, player option
Quinn Cook, team option
Avery Bradley, player option
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, player option

As I discussed in part 1, I am guessing that Rondo and McGee will opt-in. Both are elder statesmen with checkered reputations, and even a stellar playoffs likely wouldn't net either man a better deal that their player options.

In part 1 I also indicated that Rob may use Cook's $3 million team option in a trade, but given the point guard's limited role under Coach Frank Vogel I'd be surprised if the team brought him back, especially at this number.

KCP could still benefit from a strong final 19 games and/or playoffs even after a solid regular season so far, but even if there were no resumption of the season I still think he will opt out. Fortunately LA now has his full Bird Rights, so even if he does opt out and they decide to keep him long term, they can go over the cap without using any of their Mid-Level Exception money.

Bradley's player option is a closer call. He may not see a starter's gig or any more money elsewhere, but if LA looks primed to make a move for a starting point guard (or trades for one around the draft) he may opt out anyway.

Unrestricted:

Markieff Morris
Dwight Howard
Dion Waiters
Jared Dudley

Among the UFAs all are candidates to possibly come back (except for maybe Dudley, who looks old), especially if one of the new guys turn out to be an excellent fit into the playoffs. Morris is my guess, but since they have no Bird Rights he would have to be signed using an exception. (More on that below)

Dwight Howard looked like a strong possibility to return a few months ago, but unless he takes another minimum deal, his flagging production and the serviceable (so far) fit of Morris at backup center probably makes another ‘Return Of Superman' a 50/50 shot at best. Feels like Waiters would have to blow up in the playoffs if he hoped to return next season on anything more than a minimum as well. Dudley looks ready to join a network broadcast team and talk loud for money.

League Free Agents:

Assuming LeBron James and Davis are both under contract, LA will be operating as an over-the-cap team (which looks highly likely).

This means Pelinka will have use of both the MLE mentioned above, which for simplicity sake will probably be somewhere around $10 million a year (and can be used on one player or split among multiple players), and the Bi-Annual Exception, which last season was about $3.6 million. As always over the cap teams can sign as many minimum players as they have room/need for.

So, while knowing that a big trade at or around the draft would dramatically change any approach LA would have toward free agency, I still think enough of the general structure of the team will stay consistent that it will be fun to make some guesses as to who they may sign. Here are a few of mine, by position.

Point Guard:

Goran Dragic, Jeff Teague, DJ Augustin, Reggie Jackson, Bryn Forbes.

If LA doesn't land a starting point guard in a trade, and feel they should use some or all of their limited exemption money to try to upgrade from Bradley, then these are the only names of potentially starter-quality point guards I see in the slim free agent pool. All have serious limitations, which is why LA could probably get one in their price range. My guess is that LBJ and Vogel would prefer Dragic. He may be a tad bit more than the MLE even at age 34, but I also outlined the type of sign and trade in part 2 that could get him here as well. And no, they are not getting Fred VanVleet with the MLE. (sigh)

Shooting Guard:

Jordan Clarkson, Langston Galloway, E'Twaun Moore, Wesley Matthews (player option)

First of all Evan Fournier is not opting out of $17 Million for the MLE, so that's a no-go. Bogdan Bogdanovic would be a nice long term fit/replacement for Danny Green, but as a restricted free agent he would also be hard to pry away. Like with Dragic, I also laid out a way LA could trade for him in part 2, especially if he becomes too pricey for the thrifty Kings. Pat Connaughton may be an interesting fit and prove affordable, but he is restricted as well, making chasing him dicey at best.

Other than those three likely out-of-reach options, Clarkson is the star of the class. Surprisingly he may fit some of LA's needs just right. He is instant offense off of the bench, and is enjoying his best year ever from behind the arc. It would also be fun to bring back the first Lakers draft shocker that launched the full rebuild back in 2014. Unfortunately he would probably take all of the MLE, and Pelinka and company may decide that veteran playmaking or reliable shooting from 3 are higher priorities. If so, they may look at one of the point guards listed above, or a backup small forward. Speaking of which...

Small Forward:

Maurice Harkless, Trevor Ariza, Marcus Morris, Justin Holiday, Kent Bazemore, Reggie Bullock (t/o), Glenn Robinson III, Kyle Korver

Although running point on offense, LeBron is undeniably LA's starting small forward on D. As such anyone the team might pursue would most likely be as a backup, preferably with a 3 and D profile. If New Orleans moves on from the currently injured Darius Miller and makes him an unrestricted free agent then he might also make an interesting choice. Joe Harris isn't leaving a semi-starting situation in Brooklyn for an LA bench role unless the market for him dries up. The team might chase Harkless or Markieff's brother Marcus Morris, but I also wouldn't be surprised if LeBron and Vogel leaned toward someone like Ariza.

Power Forward:

Markieff Morris, Jae Crowder, Ersan Ilyasova (t/o), Marvin Williams, Mike Muscala (p/o), Dario Saric, Anthony Tolliver

There is a pretty deep field of bench-type contributors here, but at a position LA may not need much help. Markieff Morris may be the right fit, but because of the way he came to LA they have no Bird Rights of any kind. Maybe he would be a fair deal at the BAE, but I can't see the team spending much more than that for a backup at their deepest position (both LBJ and Davis spend time there). If Milwaukee can't afford Ilyasova he'd fit nicely as well.

Like I said it's a deep field at the backup 4, and there are a number of serviceable minimum or near-minimum type players available I didn't mention as well.

Center:

Tristan Thompson, Serge Ibaka, DeMarcus Cousins, John Henson, Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo, Nerlens Noel, Meyers Leonard, Kyle O'Quinn, Frank Kaminsky (t/o), Alex Len

Ugh. Listing guys from this section made my head hurt. Fortunately LA's best lineups still feature AD at center, so spending anything more than a vet minimum one someone from this list could be poor asset management.

All of the decent UFAs at this position like Andre Drummond, Montrezl Harrell, Marc Gasol, Aron Baynes and even Christian Wood would likely cost too much to make it worth it. Maybe they look at DeMarcus Cousins again, but I'd guess we see another year of opted-in McGee, with Markieff as his main backup.

That's pretty much it for free agency.

Is there a single player on this list that would be worth the full MLE if LA can get them, or should they try to stretch it across a few role players and hope the big additions come from either a trade or in the summer of 2021?

It may be a while (if ever) that the 2019-2020 season resumes, but at some point it will be over and the 2020 off season will begin. Until then I hope this three part series gave you something to stare at.

If you're still bored and need something longer and more involving to read, always feel free to try one of my epic fantasy novels at www.plainfiction.com. I currently have all ebooks on ‘NBA hiatus sale' for 99 cents!