LaMelo Ball really might be the 2020 NBA Draft’s best prospect

LaMelo Ball is going to be a top pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.

Ball’s Australian adventure is making him a top prospect in the NBA Draft.

After a slow start, LaMelo Ball is starting to catch fire in his first season in the Australian National Basketball League. Most recently, at 18 years old, he became the youngest NBL player to notch a triple-double, with 32 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds in an overtime win for the Illawarra Hawks. His career-best night came against a team with mediocre pro talent, but it was impressive nonetheless.

Ball is gaining traction as the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, and he’ll at the very least be a lottery pick. He has too much talent with the ball in his hands to pass up. The NBA’s best teams are growing into unstoppable offensive machines, and Ball’s a relentless shooter with deep range, a crafty passer with accuracy, and he can get to the free throw line. His skillset is a drag at times when his shot is off, but what he does is highly valued in the league Steph Curry and James Harden built.

When Ball is on, he’s really on. His 32-point night came on 20 shots from the field (he made 11), and 4-of-7 shooting from range. Ball loves to take defenders off the dribble and step-back to the three-point line, where he takes the bulk of his shots from deep. And his handles are tight enough to blow by guys closing out to the arc, too. He’s as much of a show on the court as he’s been labeled off it.

There are, of course, concerns about his game, including his disengaged defensive lapses. ESPN’s scouting guru Mike Schmitz even said Ball’s coaches in Australia told him Ball didn’t know how to do defensive shell drills upon arrival. But Ball has so much talent that maybe one day that won’t matter so much. In the NBL, he’s already averaging 16 points, seven assists and seven rebounds.

Ball’s ability to create his own shots is his best attribute

What separates Ball from the rest of the pack is his ability to create good looks for himself. He’s tall, playing the guard spot at 6’7, but doesn’t use his size and strength as much as quickness to set up his own looks.

Ball versatile skillset opens up everything for him. He’s a threat taking the ball to the hoop because of his long arms and ability to see over the defense to kick to shooters, so defenders have to play him tight. Ball’s able to use that to his advantage, using dribble moves to take steps inside the arc, fake a drive the hoop, and instead pull back out and launch.

It’s these types of plays that make Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Buddy Hield, and many more blossoming young players so dangerous, and Ball’s scoring antics feels similar to how they operate.

Ball isn’t an elite shooter right now, though

Ball’s highlights are really, really fun to watch, but they also cut out a good portion of his bad shots. He tends to rely on isolation plays to score, which is fine for some of the NBA’s best scorers, but Ball isn’t shooting on par with them. Through 11 games, Ball has taken 69 three-point shots in the NBL, and only made 19, good for 28 percent.

More concerning is his free throw shooting, where he’s made just 31 of 44 tries (73 percent.) In his eight games in Lithuania last year, his numbers were about the same, hitting 14 of 19 tries. Given there are no defensive variables, free throw shooting is one of the best indicators of how good a shooter a player actually is, and Ball’s been mediocre.

Ball’s shots mechanics are a bit strange, similar to, but not as extreme as his brother Lonzo’s. LaMelo Ball, too, loads his shot from a really low stance on his left side in a bit of a wonky motion, and hardly jumps off the floor. This motion is especially difficult to replicate off the dribble — which was why his brother hardly shot while dribbling to his left side until recently improving his form. Ball might be in need of similar adjustments.

Ball’s vision will keep him on the court when his shot isn’t falling

Ball started next to former NBA point guard Aaron Brooks before he tore his Achilles, meaning he didn’t get to handle the ball as much as he probably should. Still, he’s averaging more than six assists per night to two turnovers, because he’s really savvy delivering the ball off drives.

Ball’s had very little discipline so far in his career playing for his father’s brand league, his father’s AAU teams, and a joke of a Lithuanian team before coming to Australia. While that might’ve hurt his growth in some areas, it’s only helped him develop a special ability to toss rocket passes. Ball is comfortable throwing from all angles of the court, in front of or behind his body because he’s never been afraid to try it.

He’s also really clever off pick-and-rolls, with excellent timing on throws to the paint and to the corners. His isolation shots might make for better highlights, but the p+r’s are where Ball provides the most use on offense.

This unique ability to draw defenders and deliver passes to his teammate’s sweet spots is special, and reminds me a bit of Trae Young, though Ball stands four or five inches taller. He’s able to do ship accurate passes from in the lane, or from the other side of the court, launching one-armed passes over the top of defenders. Ball is a point guard, and he’ll need to play as one in the NBA to be successful.

The bad parts about Ball’s game are concerning

I mentioned before that Ball isn’t shooting the ball so well, and that’s a red flag for his hopes of being picked No. 1 overall. His defense is another flag.

Ball looks like a player whose played on his dad’s AAU teams and spent a season playing fake Lithuanian basketball by the way he plays team defense. On-ball, he’s ok, using long arms and quick feet to stay in front of most of the guards he’s asked to lock down, but his defense as a piece in a unit is brutal.

When the ball moves out Ball’s opponent’s hands, he loses engagement, and often has no idea where to be. In instances where he should help, he stands still and often watches the ball fly by. Sometimes he’s face-guarding so hard he doesn’t even attempt to play help defense. In fairness to him, he’s never been coached before reaching the NBL. Maybe he’ll improve. But the learning curve is going to be steep.

Ball is also going to have to learn how to become useful without the ball in his hands. He’s used to being the center of attention, and that won’t happen right away as a pro. Can he become a spot-up shooter? A screener? What else Ball can provide on offense is a question mark, and especially evident in the NBL where he isn’t the primary ball-handler.

Ball still might be the best prospect in 2020

Ball is far from a perfect prospect, but like his brother, there’s too much talent to ignore. The 2020 draft is noticeably weak with no Zion Williamson-obvious star. Maybe UNC’s Cole Anthony will improve, maybe Memphis’ James Wiseman is a more versatile scorer than we think. But nobody’s ceiling is as high as a Ball who can shoot more accurately and learn the fundamentals of team defense.

Don’t be surprised if his name is called first.