Why Andrew Luck’s retirement will not prevent the Colts from hitting their 2019 win total
Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement shocked the NFL, and resulted in sportsbooks making big changes to the Indianapolis Colts’ various betting odds. Here’s why they’re now an underrated wager.
We’ve covered the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck extensively here at SB Nation. Lots of the focus has been around the why and where do the Colts go from here. More specifically, how will the Colts play with a new quarterback under center. That “new” quarterback is Jacoby Brissett, who’s been handling the duties as the starter while Andrew Luck rehabbed from his ankle injury. How’s he going to handle running this team? I think better than expected.
There’s a big misconception when it comes to gambling line movement in the NFL around player injuries. Almost no one outside of a quarterback moves the line when injured and if they do, it’s often half a point. Now, when a quarterback gets hurt, a line will move quickly in the opposite direction. When Andrew Luck retired, the line for their Week 1 game against the Los Angeles Chargers moved significantly. Prior to Luck’s retirement, it sat at Chargers -3 — a standard for the home team to lay three points against a fairly evenly matched team. The line jumped to Chargers -7 — a four point difference with the announcement of the Luck retiring. As you can see, things will change quickly with a quarterback change.
Along those lines, the Indianapolis Colts win total before the Andrew Luck injury announcement was set at 9.5. Most us envisioned an 11 or 12 win season, an AFC North division win, and at least a home playoff game — with an outside chance to win the AFC conference. Now, with Luck’s sudden retirement, the Colts win total dropped down two games to 7.5 The two-game drop isn’t as harsh as expected, but it’s a drop nonetheless.
Even without Luck, I believe the Colts can get to eight wins.
Before we get to Jacoby Brissett, let’s discuss the rest of the squad. The Colts defense last season vastly improved from 2017 to 2018. They went from 27th in overall defensive DVOA to 10th, with a high mark in rushing defense, and only 20th against the pass. So, what did the Colts do? They spent their first draft pick, a second round pick on Rock Ya-Sin, a tall corner who matches their defensive style. They spent their next two picks on a linebacker and safety, both of whom will see time this season. They also added Justin Houston to beef up the pass rush.
On the offensive side of the ball, they’ve got the makings of an outstanding offensive line, if the right side will continue to improve. Marlon Mack can run the ball, Eric Ebron had a break out season in 2018, and TY Hilton is always dangerous. They also have the advantage of Frank Reich, who’s shown he’s an excellent offensive mind/play caller. Now we get to Brissett, who’s got to guide the ship.
he had an opportunity to start in 2017 and it didn’t go well. The team was 4-11, and his play was blah. Well, that team was blah and Brissett played with a lame duck staff. I think we need to throw that season out. He’s now playing with a play caller/design who helped turn Nick Foles into freaking Tom Brady for multiple weeks in 2017.
Reich runs an offense that prides itself on quick timing routes and play action opportunities. Andrew Luck had the best completion percentage of his career, near 68%, four percent higher than his previous best NFL season. This is how the offense is supposed to operate. Brissett has been a below average QB at times with his accuracy, but I’m willing to bet this season that improves under Reich. And remember, with the rest of the team being so talented, they just need Brissett to be average, or slightly above. They do not need Andrew Luck. Now, they aren’t winning the Super Bowl, but they can win eight games with Jacoby.
There’s never gimmes in the NFL, but the Colts have four extremely winnable games outside of the division: the Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their division isn’t the toughest in the NFL and 4-2 is something attainable. Plus, they could win a game they shouldn’t, if one of these games doesn’t go their way.
I think the Colts win eight games or more this season.