The Houston Rockets’ rock-bottom was always predictable

Pairing Chris Paul and James Harden was always a “championship or bust” move. This is what “bust” looks like.

When the Rockets traded for Chris Paul two summers ago, then signed him to a four-year, $159.7 million extension despite him being 33 years old, it was supposed to usher in an era of Houston basketball that legitimately challenged the Golden State Warriors as title contenders. And in Years 1 and 2 of the wild experiment that paired Paul with eventual MVP James Harden, it did.

But entering Year 3, we have conflicting information about both Paul’s future in Houston and his relationship with Harden. Yahoo!’s Vincent Goodwill reported both Paul and Harden want to part ways with each other and cited a source who called their relationship “unsalvageable:”

“Paul went to Rockets management and demanded a trade, and Harden issued a “him or me” edict following the Rockets’ second-round loss to the Golden State Warriors, sources said.”

Meanwhile Rockets GM Daryl Morey appeared on Sports Talk 790 the day before. Not only did Morey say Paul doesn’t want to be traded, but he insisted that instead of fielding trade offers for the aging point guard, he’s seeking a third star to add to the dynamic duo.

Regardless of which story is true, one thing is for sure: Houston’s trade for Paul was a championship or bust move. It was never a sure fire bet to work, and it could only have ended in one of two ways. That was the point.

Now, this is what bust always would look like: possible friction between the two and an immovable contract for an aging star on a team that never made it to the NBA Finals.

It’s also a situation Tilman Fertitta inherited when he bought the Rockets from former owner Leslie Alexander for a record $2.2 billion in 2017. Houston, after the Paul trade, was viewed as a team with an open title window.

Two losses to the Warriors later, that title window appears shut. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon details a Houston front office riddled with turmoil, led by Fertitta, who has “grumbled about Paul’s contract, expressing regret to Rockets staffers and even in front of rival executives.” Morey’s big gamble fell short of its ultimate goal: an NBA championship. Now, it’s hard to see a viable exit strategy.

How did we get here?

Paul’s first season in Houston inspired hope the Rockets could actually dethrone the overloaded Warriors. He was a big shot taker and big shot maker, a pressure release for Harden, who carried one of the league’s two heaviest workloads and jockeyed with Russell Westbrook in a two-man MVP race the season prior.

Last season, Paul carried the Rockets and made plays down the stretch when Harden couldn’t. The Harden and Paul-led Rockets recorded the best record in basketball, and they were potentially on their way to the NBA Finals, too.

But then Paul suffered a hamstring injury in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals that kept him out for the series. Houston went on to win the game and take a 3-2 series lead, but they weren’t the same team without him. Golden State came back and won the series, then swept LeBron James’ ragtag Cleveland Cavaliers for their second straight NBA championship.

Rather that build on that success, the Rockets botched last summer’s free agency. Instead of doubling down on the improved defense that powered their 65-win season, Houston allowed Trevor Ariza to walk to Phoenix and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to go to the Clippers. The Carmelo Anthony experiment was a wild failure, and injuries to Paul and Clint Capela sapped the team of its depth.

All the while, Harden endured another season carrying the city of Houston on his back. He may very well be the MVP front-runner, especially after a superhuman month of January, where he averaged 43.6 points and scored 61 points at Madison Square Garden. But at what cost? Without Paul, the Rockets couldn’t manage Harden’s load if they wanted to make the playoffs. His minutes ran up to astronomical levels.

Meanwhile, Paul played in his third straight season of 61 or fewer games, and didn’t seem happy about the team’s growing dependence on Harden. As a source told Goodwill: “There’s no respect at all, on either side.”

Ready for the kicker? That was only the first season of Paul’s monster four-year contract extension.

He is owed another $124 million over the next three years, while Harden will begin his own super max extension that pays $170.9 million through the 2022-23 season. Making a title run with a Paul-Harden partnership meant sacrificing the long-term for the short term, but the bill is now due earlier than expected.

If the Rockets do want to trade Paul, they will have a difficult time finding a team willing to take his contract. As popular an option as it has been, the Lakers are not a viable trade destination for Paul. They do not have enough cap space to fit his salary, and frankly, it wouldn’t be the best move for them, regardless of his relationship with LeBron James.

There are teams that could use a player with Paul’s skill set.

• The Orlando Magic made the playoffs with D.J. Augustin as their starting point guard.
• Are the Wolves actually shopping Andrew Wiggins? A guard of Paul’s caliber would do wonders for Karl-Anthony Towns.
• If Kemba Walker leaves, the Hornets have several contracts they could use to match Paul’s salary, and they could include Nic Batum, a versatile two-way wing who has struggled since leaving Portland.
• And how about the Miami Heat, who have one of the ugliest cap sheets in the NBA and could unload several contracts to bring Paul to South Beach?
• The Suns, Pacers and Jazz are also teams in dire need of a talented point guard, but the youth of these teams suggests they’d be interested in players earlier into their career.

Problem is, all of those teams would send back toxic long-term contracts of their own to make up for swallowing Paul’s deal. It will be nearly impossible to trade Paul for any positive value.

There’s one more option for Houston: ride this storm out

It may seem like the Paul-Harden partnership has run its course, but if the Rockets can’t find a deal, their only hope may be to keep Harden and Paul together one more year and try to smooth over any tension while making one last title run.

The Warriors won’t be contenders without Kevin Durant (ruptured Achilles) and Klay Thompson (torn ACL). That leaves the conference wide open for everyone, Houston included, to make a run for it all. The Lakers will be stronger than ever after pairing LeBron James with Anthony Davis, but they’ll need a third star to be championship favorites, and it’s unclear if they’ll be able to create the cap space to land one. The Nuggets will be better next season, but they’re still a young team with much to learn. The Trail Blazers will lose several key free agents without adequate means of replacing them. The Clippers could get Kawhi Leonard in free agency, or they might not.

Then there are the Rockets, armed with two of the best guards in the NBA and their $5.7 million taxpayer’s mid-level exception. They will also find it difficult to retain key free agents, including Iman Shumpert, Austin Rivers, Gerald Green, and restricted free agent Danuel House.

But the Rockets’ offense was successful despite Harden and Paul rarely, if ever, assisting each other on the court. Can they put their gripes aside to make one more run at a championship? They might have no choice.

If so, Houston needs to get more out of Clint Capela, who underperformed expectations in the first season of a five-year, $90 million extension. The Athletic’s Shams Charania notes the Rockets have had “conversations around Capela.” SB Nation’s Houston Rockets blog, The Dream Shake, suggests a trade package that sends Capela to the New Orleans Pelicans — a team without a starting center on its roster — for the No. 4-overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft.

If the Rockets want to add one more star, as Morey said on the radio, they could deal Capela and picks to do it. But is that enough to yield a difference maker, or did the Rockets miss their chance when they declined to include Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker in a potential deal for Jimmy Butler back in November?

The Rockets made a championship or bust move when they traded for Paul and then agreed to give him an extension. But after a first year with legit championship hopes, Houston is in the middle of the “bust” scenario playing out. This was always on the table given the long-term salary committed to their back court.

Now, it’s hard to see an attractive exit strategy. If the Rockets championship window is closed, their bust window is only beginning to open.