Lonzo Ball Analytics - Comparing Lonzo to Jason Kidd and Steve Nash

The season is very early but we can take an early peek at the progress of Lonzo Ball through box score statistics. At the same time, we can use give some insight into player comparisons and box score analysis.

In this exercise, we will look at Lonzo's individual growth from a year-over-year perspective and compare Lonzo to the 2 HOF "pass first" players to see how he is progressing; We will compare Lonzo Ball with Steve Nash and Jason Kidd at comparable stages of their career.

Interestingly enough, Lonzo best aligns with the rookie years of these two at the beginning of his second year. The 2 HOF’ers were 21 to start their NBA career and had an extra year of college. At the beginning of this season Lonzo is 21, and so far, his numbers align with their's nearly perfect. In a sense, Lonzo’s first year of NBA is the same as their extra year of college from a comparison standpoint. (Lonzo Year 2 = Nash and Kidd Year 1.)

Face value Per Game Stats (Lonzo Ball):

First off, let’s take a look at Lonzo’s year-over-year growth. At face value, we see that he’s seeing an expected uptick in shooting percentages. This is basic proof of growth and is a good thing. Free Throw (FT) rates are still low but we can see he is improving. Overall he looks to be better this year than last year.

Per-36 Game Stats:

If we use the Per-36 stats we get a 36-minute average for an apples-to-apples comparison. This helps analysis as it normalizes all players and data to a 36-minute standard. This solves the issue of comparing a 24minute average to a 36 minute average. And, as the NBA tends to give starters and All Stars close to 36 minutes, it’s also a quick way to see how close a player is doing in compared with a starter and/or All Star. With the scoring uptick this season, 15-17 points is probably an expected contribution from a starter if given 36 minutes.

In this case, Lonzo's 13.0 points would be on the low end of average. But as a second year player with many years of growth, this isn't bad as it says that he's already close to being a starter from a scoring perspective. It should also be noted that if given 36 minutes, his current stats suggests a 3 point increase over last year.

If we look at the per-36 stats we see a tiny drop in shot attempts, free throws, and rebounds. After 10 games all of these drops can be explained by a small sample and a nominal variance due to a change in scheme, players and Lebron James. Ultimately, we see that he’s relatively close to the prior year numbers and staying the same in how he plays (and contributes). If there were major variances it would suggest he changed something drastically.

Assists, however, is a small red flag - A drop of almost 2 points isn’t the end of the world and can be explained by a new scheme and Lebron James dynamic but it is worth watching as a drop in assists to a point guard is a big thing. As we're only 10 games into the season, we won't suddenly proclaim him a bust.

It’s also good that his turnover (TOV) rate is decreasing.

So overall, after 10 games we can say he has already shown shooting improvement and continues to add the same impact as last year with rebounds and steals.

Advanced Stats:

If we peek at the "Advanced" stats we can see a few useful items that will give insight. We will work across the box from left to right making observations as we go.

Again, overall the shooting rates show growth. The decline in free throws is a bit troubling, but still not a major issue as we can say that it's a normal "small sample" fluctuation. It is troubling that this rate is low however as it should be closer to .25; It shows that he's not generating enough free throws but the decline, itself isn't an issue.

If we look at the asst% this is a bit troubling. He went down and is far below league average at 19% -- league average is close to 40% for a PG. But rather than panic let’s dismiss this as Luke got yelled at by Magic for not implementing a structured offense and Luke admitted they hadn’t practiced any plays. So it’s not unrealistic to think that a 2nd year point guard struggles in a sandlot environment without designed plays. Let’s wait until game 20 or so after an offense has been installed and check back. If it’s still low we have to take a deep breath and contemplate.

Defensive win shares went down, but we’re comparing a 36 win team to a playoff team so this is reasonably accounted in that a good player makes a bigger impact on a bad team than he does a good one.

His offensive box (+/-) OBPM is positive as it suggests he has a favorable impact on the offense, whereas the DPBM says his defensive impact isn’t as strong as we’d hoped or were promised. But again, this can be explained by adding some influence of new team and Lebron. His value over an average league starter (VORP) is relatively neutral and say that being replaced by an average starting NBA PG makes no difference. Relatively speaking a 13 point, 6 assist and 6 rebound PG is nothing more than run-of-the-mill average. Which is good as a 2nd year player as he’s already as good as an "average" starting PG.

We see growth, the impact of a scheme change, and a few anomalies. But nothing worrysome outside of the assist issue and reaffirmation of the low generation of free throws that we already knew.

But wait, you said we were gonna compare…… (See Comparison Setup at end of article)

Per-36 Game Stats (Ball, Kidd, Nash):

If we look at the per-36 stats of Lonzo, Nash, and Kidd we can make some interesting insights. As I mentioned before, if we use the stats when all 3 players were 21, the comparison is a stat junkie’s dream in the overall match.

Check out points…. Check out field goal "makes" (FG); field goal attempts (FGA), steals, blocks and turnovers (TOV).

In terms of shooting his overall scoring is the relatively the same as the two HOF players. There is a wrinkle however as he shoots a lot less 2pt shots and is benefitting from playing in a 3pt era and a much higher reliance on the 3pt shot. This aligns with the eyeball test that says the kid really needs to work on his mid-range and attacking --- statistical proof of what we already knew.

We can see he’s already a better rebounder, but we already knew this.

The assists are troubling however if he’s "The next Kidd or Nash." But otherwise, we can see that he’s in the same grouping and his stats are comparable to these 2 HOF point guards at year 21.

Advanced Stats:

The advanced tab offers a more insight as we see the percentage of plays. We see Lonzo rebound 9.5% of the total rebounds and a much higher rate than Kidd and Nash. Again we circle back to assist rate as a troubling sign, but after 10 games, it’s a bit early to knee jerk.

If we look at "contribution" defining stats like win shares (WS, OWS, DWS) , we see that Lonzo is basically neutral and close to 0.0. Obviously, Kidd is higher but he played on the worst team in the league and akin to the Phoenix Suns or Hawks of this year; As a result, his personal contributions will have a much greater impact on win shares. If we look at the plus-minus metrics (BPM) we see that Kidd’s impact wasn’t as great as it seems and that Nash was a negative impact player. Kidd’s defense was a near-elite from a young age and it is reflected here in his DBPM and BPM aggregate. (BMP is calculated by combining OBMP + DBPM).

Again, we see that Lonzo is within the same range or better than Nash and/or Kidd at the same age. We see that he is pacing these two HOF players and we have established that Lonzo is the same player type. As such we can use the two aforementioned guys as a growth model and see how long it will take for him to match them.

Jason Kidd: 5 Years.

Kidd reached the beginning of his player plateau at 25 and 5 veteran seasons. This was the beginning of the Phoenix D'antoni uptempo "7 seconds or less' era.

Steve Nash: 6 Years

Above all, it must be noted that Nash is considered one of the best shooters in history. If he had played in today's era he might have rivaled Curry, as such his shooting percentages probably won't be matched. Regardless, we ans ee that it took 6 seasons for him to reach his plateau. It's worth mentioning that after Dallas and Kidd separated, Nash took the helm of Kidd's team and Kidd got banished to the Nets where Byron Scott helped him lead the team to 2 consecutive (losing) finals appearances.

Recap - Lonzo Ball:

The two things we need to keep an eye on for Lonzo are shot attempts and assists. He’s falling behind on shot attempts and in recent games, he seemed a bit afraid to take a shot. This analysis isn’t about arguing his offensive skills or if he needs to retool his shooting, but it’s worth keeping these thoughts in your mind as you watch him play.

And obviously, a pass-first PG with low assists and assist percentages is a major issue. It means he’s an over glorified shooting guard, and if we compare him to shooting guard metrics we would cry. But after 10 games we can take a deep breath and expect these issues will settle by year’s end.

Ultimately, Lonzo’s right on schedule to be the "pass first guy" we were promised. He needs to add some skills, and refined his techiniques, but as of today, he's walking perfectly in the footsteps of 2 HOF players.

* All stats and data as per Basketball-Reference.

~

How to set up Player Comparison and follow along at home:

First, google: Basketball Reference compare.

Add: "Singe Season Comparison"; Lonzo Ball (year 2); Jason Kidd (Year 1); Nash (Year 1)