The best college football picks for week 10, including Penn State

The early betting lines often allow for the most value.

All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record ATS: 115-86 (57.2%)

Last week I went 16-6. If I can do that every week I’ll quit sports writing and move to Vegas.

I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.

Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.

Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.

Picks made Sunday, October 28

I fire away on Sundays, and then wait for the lines to come back to me.

• FAU at Florida International pk -115: FIU has been the better football team this year, and though home-field advantage is basically nothing here due to the proximity and small fanbases, I’ll still take the Golden Panthers.
• Penn State +11.5 (-105) at Michigan: I have successfully bet Michigan a lot recently, but this is a ton of points.
• Louisiana Tech +21.5 at Mississippi State: Mississippi State has a great defense, but struggles to score. This is a weird motivational, right in the middle of an SEC schedule. I would not take less than 20 here.
• Liberty at Massachusetts -2: The Minutemen are somewhat improved this season, and I’ll look to play them at anything under a field goal.
• Charlotte +22 at Tennessee: Charlotte is an improving football team and I would look to play any number 20 or greater.
• San Diego State at New Mexico +10.5: I like New Mexico in underdog spots, and San Diego State in underdog spots as well. Here’s to a low scoring, ball-control fest.
• Air Force at Army -6: Army is a quality football team. Air Force is off a tough contest against Boise. I’d take anything a TD or less.
• Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan -12.5: EMU has a stellar defense. I think it will give its offense enough short fields for the blowout.
• Oklahoma at Texas Tech +13: Texas Tech has an improved defense, and it got back to scoring well on Saturday against Iowa State.
• Memphis at East Carolina +17.5: I expected to see a number between 12 and 16, so when I saw 17.5, I grabbed it. Memphis can really score, but ECU has been feisty.
• Nebraska +24 at Ohio State: Maybe Ohio State has fixed its defense over the bye week. Here’s betting it won’t get enough stops to cover this.
• Navy at Cincinnati -11: I just don’t get the Navy love. Or maybe it’s the underestimating of Cincinnati. Either way, I’d play anything under two touchdowns.
• Houston at SMU +16: Houston was a great play last weekend for those who took it, but this is a big number.
• Miami Ohio +8.5 at Buffalo (Tuesday game): Buffalo has been a strong bet-on team, but I’d look to take Miami Ohio at anything over a touchdown.