The early betting lines often allow for the most value.

All wagers at -110 odds and for 1 unit unless otherwise noted. My picks are in bold, with that team’s spread attached. Visit Odds Shark for updated lines throughout each game week.

Season record: 66-55 (+$560)

Last week I went 15-10-2. If I can do that every week I’ll quit sports writing and move to Vegas.

I often tell readers that the best bets can be found in the opening lines on Sunday afternoons. Lines tend to be sharper after they’ve been bet all week. Most of my plays are made early in the week. Note that some of the lines below have since changed.

Of course, if you’re trying to bet thousands of dollars on each game, the low limits (typically $250-500 max bets per game) early in the week can be a hindrance, but I’m figuring most of my readership is playing $100 per game or less.

Because I make these wagers throughout the week, I order them by when they were made.

Picks made Monday, October 8

Totals come out on Monday afternoons, so you have to be ready to fire.

• Miami -6 at Virginia: I did not want to play Miami in this spot, but with my number in the double digits, getting under a touchdown is too much value to pass up.
• Louisiana Monroe at Coastal Carolina -4: Louisiana Monroe just allowed 11.5 yards/play to Ole Miss before garbage time. CC does not have the athletes that the Rebels do, but that is some horrendous defense. With the Chanticleers off a bye, I’ll lay the four.
• Kent State at Miami Ohio Over 55.5 (-120): I thought this line should be in the mid-60s. Kent State wants to push tempo, neither team is great on defense, and Miami Ohio’s offense is coming together.
• UCLA at Cal Over 53.5: Both teams operate at a decent tempo, and I think Cal’s offense gets right against an undermanned Bruins defense.
• Duke at Georgia Tech Under 58.5: Duke’s defense has the discipline to play well against Georgia Tech, and I don’t trust Duke’s offense to put up 20+.
• Boise State at Nevada Under 58: Neither team has been doing anything explosive on offense, while maintaining somewhat decent success rates. That is a recipe for many drives with a first down or two ending in a punt.
• Ole Miss at Arkansas Over 72 (-115): Both teams want to push tempo. Neither team plays a lick of defense. I expect this to shoot out.
• West Virginia at Iowa State Over 60.5 (-120): Iowa State can really score, and West Virginia should have scored more than it did last week if not for some interceptions that killed red zone drives.

Picks made Sunday, October 7

• Texas Tech +10.5 at TCU: TCU’s offense is not good enough to lay double digits against a team which can really score.
• Purdue at Illinois +10.5: Illinois’ offense is bad, but not terrible. And Purdue doesn’t play much defense.
• Michigan State at Penn State -13.5: I made my number for this game 18. MSU has been a major disappointment, while the Nittany Lions are off a bye week. Betting against Mark Dantonio when MSU is a double-digit favorite is scary, but this is not your typical Sparty.
• WKU at Charlotte +7.5: I thought this line would be a field goal, so taking slightly over a touchdown is an easy call.
• Akron +11 at Buffalo: Last week I successfully bet against Akron, and have made a lot this year on Buffalo. So when I saw this line in the double digits, and my own line was seven, I have to take the value.
• UNLV at Utah State -17: Utah State is a good football team. UNLV, even with its starting QB, cannot throw. I expect the Aggies to score way too much for the Rebels.
• Pitt at Notre Dame -21: This is a letdown spot for the Irish, but Notre Dame did just manage to beat Virginia Tech on the road despite not playing well for the first 30 minutes.
• Colorado at USC -6.5: This is a perfect spot to bet the Trojans. Colorado is incredibly overrated due to the zero in its loss column. USC is off a bye and improving with its young skill talent.
• Louisiana Tech at UTSA +14: I successfully bet against La Tech last weekend and will look to make it a second week. UTSA is not that good, but I don’t understand how LT has any business laying two touchdowns on the road.
• Ohio at NIU -2.5: NIU has been playing better football the last two weeks. Its defense should be solid against the Bobcats.
• Minnesota +32 at Ohio State: This is a good example of being flexible. I thought that I would be on the Buckeyes, but the line came out so high that I had to play the Gophers.
• Temple -1 at Navy: I’ve consistently gone against Navy this year, and will look to do so again. Navy is off a huge letdown loss in a rivalry game against Air Force.
• Southern Miss at North Texas -8: Perhaps I’ll be wrong about North Texas yet again, but I am going back to the well. I really like QB Mason Fine.
• Nebraska at Northwestern -9.5: Nebraska is just not a good football team. Northwestern might be turning a corner.
• Tennessee +20 at Auburn: Why in the world is Auburn laying 20 points against any SEC team with its current offensive woes? The Volunteers are off a bye.
• Florida -8 at Vanderbilt: I really did not expect to be on Florida here. It is an obvious letdown spot following two big wins against Mississippi State and LSU. But at a number in the single digits, I have a hard time resisting.
• Missouri +29.5 at Alabama: The Tide are an incredible team. But four touchdowns against a solid Missouri team feels like a ton.
• Wyoming at Fresno State -18: I’m back on the Fresno State train yet again. I do not have any faith that Wyoming’s offense can score with Fresno.

Pick made August 21

• Wisconsin at Michigan -3: I obviously feel great about this GOY futures line because the spread opened at seven. My number for this game is Michigan by nine, so I would still likely play the Wolverines.