The Aces’ forfeit could cost them a spot in the WNBA playoffs, but there’s a silver lining

Las Vegas gave itself a loss, which might take the team out of the playoff hunt. But it could also position the Aces to get a better lottery pick and land another star.

The Las Vegas Aces forfeited a road game against the Washington Mystics Friday, just two weeks before the end of the regular season with a tight playoff race unfolding. The Aces were stuck in more than 24 hours worth of plane delays and layovers ahead of the game, and ultimately decided to not show up despite eventually arriving in D.C. The team’s forfeit was the first in the league’s 23-year history.

The Aces, the league’s worst team for two years running, broke out this season and entered the night 1.5 games from the final playoff spot. Now they’ve given up a crucial game that could’ve helped end a four-year playoff drought and helped an opponent inch closer to clinching a postseason berth.

What happened?

Flying commercial like all WNBA teams do, the Aces were stuck in more than 24 hours of travel woes for their trip from Las Vegas to D.C. The team arrived at the airport at 11 a.m. for a 1:13 p.m. Vegas flight that was delayed three times before it was canceled after 10 p.m. The team had to split multiple times to fly into Dallas through the middle of the night, then split again to arrive in the nation’s capital in the afternoon on Friday.

The team arrived at approximately 3 p.m. for an 8 p.m. tip-off, but never showed at Capital One Arena. The game was cancelled 46 minutes before it was about to begin with fans still in attendance.

The team cited health reasons for no-showing:

Given the travel issues we faced over the past two days — 25+ hours spent in airports and airplanes, in cramped quarters and having not slept in a bed since Wednesday night — and after consulting with Players Association leadership and medical professionals, we concluded that playing tonight’s game would put us at too great a risk for injury.

Naturally, the issue of player safety is of paramount concern for all involved in the WNBA. This issue is bigger than our team and this one unfortunate set of circumstances, and we look forward to being a part of future discourse in the hope of preventing such incidents in the future.

Mystics coach Mike Thibault sounded off about his opponent’s forfeits to SB Nation:

Thibault: I empathize but I don’t sympathize.

I talked to [Vegas Aces head coach] Bill [Laimbeer] earlier in the day and they were [in D.C.] They should’ve showed up. It’s that simple to me. Every team in every sport goes through a day like this or two days like this somewhere in a one- or two-year period. It happens. It’s happened to me in this league several times, the NBA, the CBA. There wasn’t a snowstorm, they got here.

So your obligation is to play. Everybody gets tired. For them to say they were tired ... shoot ... we played this year in Seattle on a back-to-back after we played in L.A. It was a 4 o’clock in the afternoon game in L.A., it was a 4 o’clock game in Seattle, we took a red-eye and got to the hotel at 4 o’clock in the morning. We were tired. But you play, that’s part of what you get paid for.

On Tuesday afternoon, WNBA president Lisa Borders clarified that the league tried to reschedule the game but couldn’t:

Borders: We worked extensively with both the Aces and Mystics to come up with a workable solution. In the end, given the limited number of days remaining in the season and arena availability, we decided to delay the start of the game until 8 p.m. to give the Aces as much time as possible between their arrival in Washington, D.C. and tipoff. While not ideal, it was the best available solution to accommodate both our fans and the scheduling challenges. Since the Aces chose not to play, the result is a forfeit.

So what’s the outcome?

The Mystics got a free win that helps their playoff stance

Washington’s held steady and surprisingly launched themselves into playoff double-bye position despite losing an All-Star in Emma Meesseman, who isn’t playing in the WNBA this season, and replacing her scoring talent with role players and a solid rookie.

The WNBA greatly rewards the top-4 teams with the best records, giving the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds two byes into the semifinals, and seeds No. 3 and No. 4 a first-round bye in the playoffs. That’s crucial as the WNBA’s opening two rounds are single-elimination with home-court advantage given to the higher seeds. The top two seeds avoid playing single-elimination games entirely, and Washington is right in that mix.

Currently, with the free win, the Mystics are tied with the third-best record with the Los Angeles Sparks at 17-11. They’re one game behind the Atlanta Dream for the No. 2 spot with six games left to play.

The WNBA playoff race is truly tight, though. The No. 2 seed and No. 8 seeds are separated by four games. This forfeit really meant A LOT.

The Aces hurt their playoff chances, but the forfeit may have a silver lining

The loss sets the Aces back to 12-16, two games behind the ailing Dallas Wings, whose star Skylar Diggins-Smith has missed two games with a chin injury. The slumping reigning champion Minnesota Lynx are just one game ahead of Dallas, too.

Las Vegas does still have a chance at making the postseason, though.

The Aces have a tough schedule ahead, but it comes with opportunities to pull ahead. They play the No. 2 team in the league, the Atlanta Dream twice, but also play the Lynx and Wings, who sit right ahead of them in the standings, once each. They’ll also play two already-eliminated teams in the Liberty and Fever, both at home.

There are chances for the team to see playoff action still, but a win against the Mystics could’ve made things simpler.

There’s a silver lining though.

The WNBA’s draft lottery system doesn’t run like the NBA’s, and the Aces’ forfeit might’ve helped land a star for the future.

In an effort to avoid tanking, the league takes the combined record of the team’s past two seasons in consideration for which team has the best odds of landing the top picks. The Aces could very well land a No. 1 pick next season for the third year in a row.

The lottery consists of the four teams that don’t make the playoffs, and it’s ordered by worst cumulative record. Ping pong ball are drawn for the top two picks, while the last two lottery picks will go in inverse order of record.

The Fever almost have the top odds on lock, as they have the worst record this season and the second-worst last season, but Vegas is in the lead for the No. 2 odds.

Here are those odds:

Currently, with the forfeit, the Aces have a 1.5 game worse cumulative record than the Chicago Sky. That would slate the Aces to draw with the second-best percentage chance to win the lottery and earn a talent like Mississippi State’s 6’7 big Teaira McCowan to pair with A’ja Wilson down, Louisville’s elite guard Asia Durr to run with Kelsey Plum and Kayla McBride or UConn’s sharpshooting forward Katie Lou Samuelson.

The team with the worst cumulative record has a 44.2 percent chance to win, followed by the second-worst team with 27.6 percent, third-worst with 17.8 percent, and fourth-worst with 10.4 percent.

This only matters, however, if the Aces miss the postseason. Friday’s forfeit pushed them in that direction.

Change could also come from the Aces forfeit.

The Aces made a stand by not playing in Friday night’s game, citing health reasons and lack of sleep in a real bed. This could persuade the league to look into changes on how it books flights for the following season, and at the very least, this will be a larger topic of issue for the league’s next collective bargaining agreement.

Currently the league only allows players to fly commercial, and though that’s unlikely to change for financial reasons, the league may rethink how and when it allows teams to fly from other time zones.

It’s clear Las Vegas wants something to change after no-showing for a game it was in town to play.