The 8 remaining World Cup teams, ranked by how likely they are to win the thing

Who of the quarterfinal teams have the best shot at winning the World Cup Final?

There are eight teams remaining in the 2018 World Cup, whittled down from 32, some we grew to love, some we barely remember were ever there. (Still: I will always love you, Tunisia.)

Who can actually win? Who is just happy to have made it this far? Let’s rank the teams remaining by how likely they are to actually hoist the trophy:

8. Russia

With the wildness of this World Cup, I won’t rule anything out, but this Russia team more than any other side remaining feels like a team that is just absolutely delighted to be here. They beat Spain because A) they ran around a ton — some might say a suspicious amount — for 120 minutes and B) Spain didn’t seem to feel the need to ever go and make anything happen, and just passed around a ton until they lost.

Croatia, who Russia play in the next match, can run that risk, too, but eventually Russia are going to meet an opponent who aren’t afraid to go after them, and they can’t keep this going forever.

7. Sweden

Sweden are good. Sweden are fine. They stay organized defensively, don’t chase stupid stuff, don’t take dumb chances, and have proven extremely good at blocking shots with their big, beefy Swedish bodies. They’re a bit like Uruguay in that they know exactly what they are and don’t try to be anything but that. They have their creative guy — Emil Forsberg — and their big striker — Marcus Berg — and everyone else is there to run their butts off and do all the little stuff well. I’m not sure that can win you a World Cup, though.

6. Belgium

Belgium are totally brilliant and extremely exciting and they look like the perfect candidate to flame out spectacularly in their next match. Granted, it’s against Brazil, and Brazil are the best team in the tournament. (Sorry, spoiler alert.) But this whole run up to the World Cup has been about watching Belgium manager Roberto Martinez try to mold the talent he has to fit some vision of how he wants to play. When it works, it’s beautiful, and he looks like a genius. But when it doesn’t, hoo buddy.

Will Martinez swallow his pride, break up this wild, attacking 3-4-3 formation he loves and pull Carrasco (or Mertens and push Carrasco up to winger)? Brazil’s talent makes it seem kind of obvious that Belgium should play a 4-2-3-1 with Axel Witsel and Moussa Dembele in the defensive CM, then push Kevin De Bruyne higher up the field. Then again, it’s Martinez. It’s entirely possible he will stay committed to this 3-4-3 with De Bruyne in the holding midfield role and run the risk that Brazil hang six on them. Feast or famine with this guy.

5. Uruguay

Uruguay are a better team than England and Croatia, who are both ahead of them on this list. This placement in fifth is purely due to the bracket — for Uruguay to win, they will need to beat France, then probably Brazil, or at the very least, Belgium. That’s just to get to the final. Edinson Cavani is also extremely questionable to play, and he’s an important person. I have loved Uruguay all tournament, as I believe they’re a team perfectly built and perfectly comfortable knowing exactly who they are. They defend like madmen, they counter brilliantly, and they shithouse with the best of them. I love their chances, but, you know, it’s France and Brazil. Who are very good.

4. Croatia

I love this Croatia side, but that plodding performance against Denmark made me nervous. When Luke Modric and Ivan Rakitic have the ball at their feet, anything is possible with this side. When those two don’t have the ball at their feet, they look a bit devoid of ideas. They also seemed too eager to possess at times and not really try anything, something that doomed the Spain team. That being said, they’re extremely talented, and on the right side of the bracket.

3. England

I left England vs. Colombia more excited about the England team than I was going into it. Yes, they gave up the late goal to Yerry Mina, and needed a nervy penalty kick performance to pull it out. I like them more not just because they didn’t crumble when they gave up the late goal, which would have been something they’ve done in the past. I like them more because of how Colombia played them.

Colombia were cautious against England, and Colombia aren’t cautious around anyone. They played three defensive center midfielders and resorted to all sorts of crap to try and slow the game down and prevent England from attacking. They had to get nasty. Granted, they were missing James, but when you make a team like Colombia change the way they play, that means they respect you. And England are so good right now they deserve that respect.

Also it really helps that they don’t have to play France and Brazil like Uruguay does. Again, Uruguay are better than England. Sorry, just needed to say that again.

2. France

France are as talented as anyone, and they have a practical manager in Didier Deschamps who is going to be cautious and not allow them to make any huge mistakes en route to the World Cup Final. That’s probably good to ensure a deep run, but at a certain point Deschamps is going to have to make a decision — does he want to play smart, or does he want to have a go at this thing? France and Brazil will most likely meet in the semifinal, and we’ll find out.

1. Brazil

Brazil have a lot of the criteria I’m looking for in a team that win the final. They are talented. So, so talented. They are deep. So, so deep. (Casemiro will miss the next match due to yellow cards, so Brazil have to turn to ... Fernandinho, who only starts for Manchester City.) They know exactly who they are, with a wide variety of players all committed to roles they understand. They can be nasty and defensive when they need to be, they can go all out and attack when they need to. They can beat you with speed or break you down with creativity. They’re on the wrong side of the bracket, and it doesn’t matter. Brazil are the team to beat.