The Penguins’ stars beat the Flyers, and this is a barnburner

Pittsburgh won Game 3 with a familiar formula: Let Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin make lots of magic.

The Penguins countered the Flyers’ blowout win in Game 2 (which itself countered the Penguins’ blowout win in Game 1) of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal with a 5-1 win in Sunday’s Game 3 in Philadelphia. But this series that’s only consisted of landslide victories still looks like it could be one of the most dramatic in hockey this month.

The teams traded stretches of dominance, but the Flyers weren’t beaten as soundly as the final score suggests.

The Flyers were the best team on the ice in the first period.

They had 29 shot attempts to the Penguins’ 12, and while raw shot attempts can be misleading, those totals were reflective of the reality on the ground. The Flyers got more and better chances, and they dictated both the pace and direction of the play. But when the first period ended, they trailed 1-0.

The play turned in the second period, when the Penguins basically flipped that shot total margin, taking 28 to the Flyers’ 12. The Penguins were buzzing that period, and they got the benefit of two power-play goals. The third period was just about even, and the teams each finished with 55 total shot attempts. But the Flyers finished with 16 scoring chances to the Penguins’ 12, and they took higher-percentage shots at even strength:

Natural Stat Trick

The difference in the game was Pittsburgh’s high-end skill, which is still well ahead of Philadelphia’s (and anyone else’s, really).

The Penguins have Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on their payroll. When you have Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on your payroll, you get goals like this:

And this:

And this:

The two Crosby efforts there — a goal where he possessed the puck with his foot and stuffed in a wrap-around, an assist where he won a faceoff to himself and flicked a brilliant saucer pass to set up another in five seconds — are rarified hockey air. Malkin’s cannon of a one-timer is among the best in the sport. The Penguins piled up goals because of their finishing ability. They got another snipe from Derick Brassard on a pass from Phil Kessel.

Goaltending and special teams turned in Pittsburgh’s favor on Sunday.

Any discussion of the Penguins’ elite skill guys should also include the goalie. Matt Murray’s regular-season stats are what they are (and they’re just fine), but he’s a 23-year-old goalie with two Stanley Cups and a career playoff goals-against average of less than 2. He’s as big-time as big-time gets, and he looked it in Game 3. He stopped 26 of 27 shots on net, including a flurry of high-quality looks while the score was 0-0.

Murray changed the trajectory of the game with key early saves. Flyers goalie Brian Elliott struggled for the second time in three outings, letting in five of 26 shots. Elliott was a slightly above-league-average net-minder this year, but he’s been lousy twice in this series. The Flyers need to get more from him (or net-mate Petr Mrazek) to advance.

The biggest problem facing the Flyers entering the series was that they had one of the league’s worst penalty-killing units this season, while the Penguins had its best power play. The Flyers held that group to one goal on eight power plays in the first two games, but the floodgates opened in Game 3, when Pittsburgh was a prolific 3-of-7. The Flyers were 0-for-6.

Murray moved to 9-1 after a loss in his three-year playoff career.

The final scores so far have suggested a series full of blowouts. But Sunday fit with a trend of games that were closer than they looked.

How things have gone so far:

• Game 1: A 7-0 Penguins win, where the Penguins got way more high-quality chances but still didn’t possess the puck all that much. Murray sparkled, and Elliott was bad.
• Game 2: A 5-1 Flyers win, where the Penguins dominated possession and had a ton of great chances, while Murray played poorly and Elliott dominated in the crease.
• Game 3: This 5-1 Penguins win that hinged largely on goaltending and power plays. That’s not to minimize an annihilation, but it could’ve easily looked different.

The better team has won every game. Goalies are part of the team, after all, and so are special-teams units, and it’s hard to be the worse team and win in a rout. But in all three games, the losing team has carried the play for long stretches at even strength. Even the seven-goal drubbing the Flyers received in the first game could’ve been a lot uglier.

If this series ends in fewer than six games, it will be a surprise.

The Penguins have been consensus favorites all along, owing to their status as two-time defending champions and their 4-0 record against their cross-state rivals this season. But only two points separated the teams in the regular-season standings, and the Penguins needed overtime in two of their four wins. Both teams’ core players are comfortable winning in the other’s building, and both have game-turning talents at forward.

If there’s one lesson to take from the series’ first three games, it’s that either team is capable of dusting the other, even without controlling the run of play. Maybe the Penguins will sail to two quick wins and be done here by Friday night, but it’s just as likely that the Flyers win a couple more games with authority and back them up to the wall. Buckle up.