Kentucky now has a clear road to the Final Four

The bracket is trending in UK’s favor.

No. 5 Kentucky thrashed No. 13 Buffalo in the second round of the NCAA tournament on Saturday in Boise, 95-75. The Wildcats move to the Sweet 16 in the tournament’s South Region. They’ll play No. 16 UMBC or No. 9 Kansas State in Atlanta next weekend.

Buffalo had shocked Arizona in the round of 64, sending the Wildcats into what could be a nightmare of an offseason. Kentucky handled a challenge from sharpshooting Davidson in that round, despite not making a three-pointer for the first time since 1988. (The Wildcats had made at least one three in 1,047 straight games, something fans took great pride in.)

The Bulls were a difficult opponent, because they play with pace and score efficiently. They entered the day with an average offensive possession length of 14.8 seconds, the fifth-shortest in the country. Their offense was roughly the same caliber as Kentucky’s, based on opponent-adjusted scoring numbers. They had some wind at their backs from the pounding they put on Arizona, but they couldn’t sink enough threes to stay close to UK.

Now that Kentucky is past Buffalo, the Wildcats’ road looks as clear as they could’ve hoped.

The South is developing exactly in Kentucky’s favor.

• No. 1 Virginia is already out of the tournament, the victim of the most shocking upset in the history of the NCAA tournament. So that’s helpful.
• No. 2 Cincinnati is a great team and still in the tournament. More on the Bearcats shortly.
• No. 3 Tennessee was locked in a tough battle with No. 11 Loyola Chicago when the Kentucky-Buffalo score went final. The Vols had a long way to go before getting to a point where they’d pose any threat to the Wildcats.
• No. 4 Arizona is already out, thanks to the same Buffalo team UK just beat.

Both UMBC and K-State are good teams, and UMBC proved in beating Virginia that it can beat literally anyone. That’s true for everyone left in the field.

But Kentucky’s road is clearing up rapidly, and the Wildcats — loaded with former five-star recruits — are still going to have a natural talent advantage against any team they face. You’d rather be the Wildcats right now than anyone else in this region.

Looking a bit ahead, a Kentucky-Cincinnati Elite Eight game would be fun.

Cincinnati is just across the Ohio River from Kentucky. Wildcats-Bearcats would thus be as close as any game could possibly come to being an in-state game without actually featuring two teams from the same state. The atmosphere in Atlanta, where the South Region’s last games will take place next weekend, would be excellent for a neutral site.

The game itself would probably be a brick fight. Kentucky is notoriously mediocre at shooting, and Cincinnati plays some of the stingiest defense in the country. Cincinnati’s also not much good from the field, and Kentucky could probably force a lot of misses. If you like 62-59 games with raucous crowds on hand, you’d love that hypothetical meeting.

Cincinnati would have a real shot to win the game and might even be favored, given its higher seed. The Bearcats have been a better team than Kentucky this year, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings. But Kentucky’s talent is Kentucky’s talent, and the Wildcats would enter that matchup having won 10 of 11 games. It’d be hard not to like their chances.