The Twins are reportedly serious about landing Yu Darvish in free agency

But what are their actual chances?

Yu Darvish, like many in the starting

The rumor

The Twins are reportedly very in on the opportunity to sign Yu Darvish. Reports of their interest in the free agent originally stemmed from a Japanese newspaper but the Star Tribune has further reported that the team thinks it will still be a few weeks before he signs anywhere but that they are “speaking optimistically” about landing him.

Why it makes sense for the Twins

For one it would more than shore up their current rotation. While the current pitchers on their roster — Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios, but also Trevor May, Adalberto Mejía, and Kyle Gibson — are a mixture of those you would trust in the playoffs and those you wouldn’t (there are a lot more ERAs above 4.30 than you’d like in that mix), Darvish would be one more weight on the good side of that scale.

On a more psychological level, it would signal that they consider themselves contenders (more than they were in 2017 when they backed into the playoffs with Bartolo Colon in their rotation) and willing to spend for the wins they need to push themselves over the top in the division and in the playoffs.

While they’ll have Michael Pineda (they hope) back for 2019, that signing isn’t a show of confidence in their chances to succeed as much as having Darvish around to join him in the rotation would be. In short, they need another major pitching piece and Darvish would be it.

Why it makes sense for Yu Darvish

This is a case of the Twins needing Darvish way more than he needs them, but also a case of how his asking price is going to impact their desire to sign him. This is not a Shohei Ohtani situation where he’s going to take a huge discount to play somewhere (at least, probably).

He’s going for at least an $150 million contract as his last major MLB payday, which is a number the Twins have yet to approach for a free agent candidate. But what intangibles Darvish is factoring in are hard to know for sure at this point. Twins GM Thad Levine already has a relationship with Darvish, but does that matter? Does a small market after he had an unfortunate end to his campaign with the Dodgers matter? Does he want to be on a contender right away or is he fine waiting a year or two for things to pan out for whichever team he picks?

If it’s only about the money, the Twins could be the last choice on his shortlist. But if not, they could be more in it than it looks right now.

Rumor Grade

B. The Twins aren’t the most convincing landing spot for Darvish, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. It’s hard to tell exactly what Darvish is looking for at this point since the market has been so focused on hitters, and therefore the free agency conversation has too.

With other contenders like the Astros and the Cubs in the mix, the Twins might be third on the depth chart when it comes to a place Darvish wants to sign. But that doesn’t mean they’re way out of it at this point. There’s always a chance.