Tracking the College Football Playoff rankings picture entering Week 10
Let’s keep track of Week 10’s biggest games as final scores roll in, Playoff committee-style.
Below, let’s keep track of Week 10’s ranked games in a way similar to the Playoff committee’s perspective.
For the committee, it’s not about what you did this week. It’s about what your entire schedule did all year long. Beating a team in Week 10 that finishes .500-plus is better than beating a team that doesn’t, no matter where either team is ranked at kickoff. The same goes for a team that finishes in the Playoff’s Top 25.
We’ll have fun stuff and gameplay analysis elsewhere and later on. This post is only about how these results are likely to impact the Playoff picture.
Win projections are via S&P+. Final scores are in bold.
Important!
Games between teams likely to finish in the committee’s final top 25, regardless of Week 10 result, meaning the winner gains a major quality W. Also, games in which the result can really swing a contender’s resume elsewhere.
- No. 19 LSU (6-2) at No. 2 Alabama (8-0): Even with a loss at Bama, LSU would have a good shot at 9-3. For now, this would be the Tide’s best win of the year.
- No. 5 Oklahoma (7-1) at No. 11 Oklahoma State (7-1): The first of OU’s back-to-back elimination games, assuming we’re all thinking of two-loss teams as doomed (we are, for now). The numbers favor OSU.
- No. 4 Clemson (7-1) at No. 20 NC State (6-2): One of Notre Dame’s advantages over Clemson entering Week 10 was its three ranked wins, compared to Clemson’s two. Well, Clemson can just knock one of ND’s ranked wins out of the top 25 here, and do it on the road. NC State projects around 8-4.
- No. 7 Penn State (7-1) at No. 24 Michigan State (6-2): A big win here would not only add a potential 8-4 road win for Penn State, it’d hurt Notre Dame’s resume. Or MSU could win.
- No. 13 Virginia Tech (7-1) at No. 10 Miami (7-0): Winning here would put some meat on the Canes’ bones, after four straight close wins over lesser teams. The Hokies are road favorites for a reason. The winner has the ACC Coastal inside track.
- No. 22 Arizona (6-2) at No. 17 USC (7-2): Winner controls the Pac-12 South. Both teams are projected to win out after this. This is likely your division title game. Khalil Tate is a god.
Should have some impact
Games between teams likely to finish .500-plus, regardless of Week 10 result, meaning the winner gains a solid W.
- South Carolina (6-2) at No. 1 Georgia (8-0): It’s barely November, and it’s already assured that beating the Gamecocks would count as a quality W, maybe even over an 8-4 team. Who saw that coming?
- Wake Forest (5-3) at No. 3 Notre Dame (7-1): Likely an Irish win over a 7-5 team. Notre Dame’s attention should be elsewhere this weekend.
- No. 6 Ohio State (7-1) at Iowa (5-3): A decent road W is available. Winning at Iowa more comfortably than Penn State did would add to Ohio State’s advantage there.
- Texas (4-4) at No. 8 TCU (7-1): Texas is probably still a bowl team.
- No. 9 Wisconsin (8-0) at Indiana (3-5): UW’s lean resume ain’t getting any better this week, though I still have Indiana sneaking into 6-6.
- Oregon (5-4) at No. 12 Washington (7-1): Oregon is probably still a bowl team.
- No. 14 Auburn (6-2) at Texas A&M (5-3): If any two-loss team has a Playoff chance, it’s Auburn, with a nice early ranking and chances to host Georgia and Alabama. Winning at Texas A&M wouldn’t add a lot, though the Aggies will still reach six wins.
- No. 15 Iowa State (6-2) at West Virginia (5-3): A road win would put ISU on course for 9-3, though they’d still control their Big 12 destiny.
- No. 21 Stanford (6-2) at No. 25 Washington State (7-2): Coin toss? The winner still gets a crack at Washington for the division title.
The non-power New Year’s Six race
Let’s track undefeated and one-loss teams, though several two-loss teams linger. The top mid-major champ earns an automatic NY6 bowl bid. A Playoff trip from this group seems impossible.
- No. 18 UCF (7-0) at SMU (6-2): UCF starts a little lower in the rankings than I’d like, but it doesn’t matter. The Knights’ New Year’s chances are win-and-in. Could probably even drop a game. This might be the hardest one left, even counting USF (at home) and the AAC title game (likely at home).
- No. 23 Memphis (7-1) at Tulsa (2-7): Nothing to gain.
- Toledo (8-1) 27, NIU (6-3) 17: Decent W. The MAC isn’t out of the NY6 race yet. Say somebody besides Memphis or UCF wins the AAC (stranger things ...), and the Rockets win out. OK, the MAC is almost out of the NY6 race.
- USF (7-1) at UConn (3-5): Likely nothing to gain.
Probably unimportant
- UMass (2-6) at No. 16 Mississippi State (6-2): Nothing to gain.

