The Cavaliers CANNOT Max Isaiah Thomas in 2018
Pretty startling title, isn't it? You may think I'm being irrational/ scaremongering/ clickbaiting (is that something I would do? Me?) but in a sense, it is true. Let me explain:
In 2015-16, the Cavaliers spent approximately $185 million on total team payroll including luxury taxes. We came away with our first franchise championship ever, but sources say that the team lost almost $40 million dollars that year. Last year, the payroll was at a more modest $166 million, but the team once again lost money in 2017.
Going into the 2017-18 season, according to my calculations, the Cavaliers are looking at a total team payroll of $192.5 million. As you may or may not know, the team has moved into repeater tax territory, and if you don't know what that is then I suggest spending a little time playing around in the CBA FAQ. It's a little dense, but to any basketball fan that gives half-a-darn about the behind the scenes/ monetary aspect of the sport, it's 100% worthwhile. At that rate, the team will almost certainly report losses for the third year in a row.
Now here's where the trouble comes in. LeBron James will be a free agent in the summer of 2018, and the Cleveland Cavaliers will certainly be offering him a five year max deal at 35% of the cap plus 7.5% increases each year. It's going to be an absurd contract, but LBJ and CP3's negotiations during the last CBA (as high ranking members of the NBPA) got them the change from over-36 to over-38 that they wanted, and LeBron is going to cash in.
Isaiah Thomas, who is on record of wanting the team which signs him to "bring out the brinks truck", will also be a free agent this summer, and the Cavaliers will have his Bird Rights. This is a guy who hasn't made that much money in his career, at least relative to his All-Star/ All-NBA talent level. He will absolutely be seeking a max, and he can get 30% of the salary cap next summer.
As far as the Cavaliers go, this is pretty much impossible. As things stand, maxing both Isaiah Thomas and LeBron James would MORE THAN DOUBLE the team's payroll from this year (which will already result in a reported loss). There is absolutely zero chance that this happens. None.
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So what can the team do about this conundrum?
1. As anyone who has looked at FearTheSword's comment sections this summer has seen, I've been a proponent of trading Iman Shumpert.
Shump has a big player option coming up next summer, and there's a strong chance he opts in. Shump has some value, and the team should be looking for ways to move him. With JR, Korver, Wade, Cedi, Rose, and IT, there simply aren't many minutes available for Shump anyway and getting out of that $11M next summer would be huge.
2. Richard Jefferson should not be waived, as the team has been floating, but should be traded.
His $2.6 million that's on the books for next year may not seem like much, but we're pushing tax levels where each dollar there is going to cost us five or more. If we're waiving a player (and we have to in order to get the roster size down) it has to be Jose Calderon. We need to trade RJ somewhere.
3. Don't utilize the Mid Level Exception next summer.
This hurts a bit, because the mMLE is the best avenue for the team to add players at anything above a minimum contract. But the difference between the hook we'd be on for using the full mMLE and signing another player to a veteran's minimum is significant at these tax levels ($3.8M before the tax penalties kick in).
4. Trade the Brooklyn First Round Pick.
Whether we make a move for a player or trade the pick for future lottery picks, this is another good way to save some money. If that pick happens to come out as first overall, the player we'd select would be owed over $6 million next year. Considering we're in "championship or bust" mode and the likelihood of even a first-overall guy contributing at the necessary level for that is, let's say, not guaranteed... it would be worthwhile to move that pick and stay under the cap.
5. Leave a roster spot open.
With the addition of G-League two-way contracts in the newest CBA, it isn't 100% vital for teams to utilize all 15 of their roster slots anymore. We could use those two guys (who can each play 45 NBA games in a year) to get through most of the year, potentially getting someone who is cut in late Februrary to fill that 15th slot. This could save ~$1M or more.
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Utilizing all five of these cost-saving measures would save the Cavs $22.9 million off their total team salary. This would still have them sitting approximately $7.5 million over where they are this year and their grand total about $40M more than where it is this year, which isn't something that Dan Gilbert would be willing to accept. The true solution here is to get Isaiah Thomas to accept less than a max deal. Will the time he misses due to injury deflate his market? Will teams balk at giving him that money when he's going into his age 29 year? Will the chance to compete for championships in Cleveland make IT more willing to compromise?
His max contract for 2018-2019 is $30.3 million. If the Cavs make all of my cap-saving moves and still want to have a total bill comparable to this year's (which will be the highest they've ever had, mind you) Isaiah Thomas would have to agree to a deal that starts around $22.8 million. That's no small number, mind you, but hopefully it's enough to satisfy the man.