The Dodgers will pull out of their hilarious doom spiral
Or, how to be on pace for 106 wins and still freak out your fans.
If you wanted an update on the state of Dodgers baseball, it looks something like this:
That’s the best pitcher in baseball in the dugout with the best team in baseball. Both of those superlatives still apply, and you’re not changing my mind. That’s the best pitcher on the best team, and he’s still angry enough to bite through a Powerade cooler. The Dodgers are going to win more than 100 games, and they’re still freaking out.
Ah, the curse of unrealistic expectations. From June 7 through Aug. 25, the Dodgers were 55-11. Since then, they’re 1-11. The symmetry of that is amazing. It shows just how ludicrous that Dodgers run was, considering they would have to win 54 games in a row to match it.
It also shows just how different Dodgers baseball has been over the last two weeks. They’ve lost seven games in a row, and the last four have been with a combined score of 28-3. The Padres and Braves haven’t had a seven-game losing streak this year. The losing streak ties the longest from the Mets and Giants this year, too.
What I’m trying to get it is that 55-11 is much different than 1-11. It’s, like, 54 wins different if I had to quantify it. And it’s so very baseball for everything to slip down the sewer grate after two weeks.
Our job today is to figure out how worried the Dodgers should be.
Not very.
To look at the last 12 games and see how much information we can glean from them.
Not a lot.
To examine performances from the last two weeks and see what they can tell us.
Nothing.
Look, dammit, this is my article, and I’ll come to these conclusions in my own time. Right now, you aren’t helping.
Who have been the players responsible for the skid? Let’s round them up and see.
Clayton Kershaw
What he’s done since Aug. 26: 9⅔ IP, 4 ER, 3 BB, 14 SO
He’s also responsible for the one win out of the last 12 games, with six shutout innings in his return from the disabled list. His velocity was down a mile per hour from his season average on Thursday, which is to say that it was within its normal range. His control was off, which you can tell from his three walks and his pitch chart at Brooks Baseball.
He is, of course, probably fine.
Level of panic when it comes to postseason preparedness, with “1” being not worried at all and “10” being in the fetal position and talking to a tortilla with burn marks that resemble Tommy Lasorda’s face: I’m at a 3, and that’s only because Kershaw was injured in the first place. Backs are the Rube Goldberg machine of the human body, so it’s always appropriate to be a little worried. But his first start off the DL is more relevant than one isolated start in the middle of a losing streak.
Yasmani Grandal
What he’s done: 41 PA, .158 BA, .195 OBP, .237 SLG
Grandal hasn’t been hitting, but it’s not like he’s been a dominant offensive catcher all season. He’s been nice and steady, and while his OPS+ (99) is well off his career average (113), he’s still a young, switch-hitting catcher with superior defense.
Level of panic: We’re talking about 12 games. It happens. Gimme a 3, with one extra point added for the potential of an undisclosed injury.
Chris Taylor
What he’s done: 51 PA, .260 BA, .275 OBP, .420 SLG
Taylor is, in a lot of ways, the 55-11 of baseball players, in that he had a brilliant run of success that was never supposed to last forever. While I thought the same thing about Justin Turner, who never faded, that can’t happen twice in three years to the same organization. Can it?
Can it?
How are the Dodgers doing this ...
Level of panic: This is at a 3 for me, only because he’s a 26-year-old hitting better than he did in the minors. But he was always a high-average hitter with patience. A little tender loving care from the braniacs in the front office, what with their launch angles and supercomputers and whatnot, can definitely explain the quantum leap in his performance. It was just unlikely for him to hit .344 with an OPS over 1000 for the rest of his career, so you knew a slump was coming.
Cody Bellinger
What he’s done: 37 PA, .250 BA, .270 OBP, .528 SLG, 0 BB, 12 SO
Bellinger is still hitting for power, because of course he is. The iffy numbers at the beginning of that line can be explained away by the 37 plate appearances.
Look, all of this can explained by sample size, people. Please come back for Monday’s article.
Level of panic: 3, but that’s because I’m wondering what it will be like for a team like the Nationals or Cubs to have time to prepare for a young, overly aggressive hitter like Bellinger. Just because they’re scouting him doesn’t mean they’ll be able to execute those pitchers, but I would have to think that a steady diet of excellent pitching would be the rock to his scissors.
Corey Seager
What he’s done: 13 PA
It doesn’t matter what he did in those plate appearances. The point is that he’s hurt with an elbow injury. It’s not bad enough to put him on the DL, and he should be back in the lineup within the week.
If you’re looking for something that might contribute to a losing streak, losing one of the best players in baseball can have something to do with that.
Level of panic: 3. Look, injuries are scary, especially when they happen right before October. He might be healthy enough to play, but he might not be healthy enough to be COREY FREAKING SEAGER, which means the Dodgers aren’t the same team that went 55-11.
But he’s probably fine. They’re all probably fine.
Yu Darvish
What he’s done: 8 IP, 8 ER, 6 BB, 12 SO
It’s probably worth pointing out that Darvish wasn’t exactly having a Cy Young season in Texas. He had pitched into the eighth inning just three times in 22 starts, with a heaping helping of six-inning quality starts mixed in there.
He’s still the complement the Dodgers needed for the postseason — someone who could take the pressure off Kershaw — but that doesn’t mean he was completely devoid of risks.
Level of panic: 3. The last two starts have been ugly, sure. The ERA is a little bloated on the season, yes. But the Dodgers are pretty good at the whole scouting thing, and if they still traded a couple of their better prospects for Darvish after he allowed 10 runs in 3⅔ innings, they’re still confident he’s the same pitcher he’s been for most of his career.
Those last two starts sure were ugly, though ...
Rich Hill
What he’s done: 9⅔ IP, 8 ER, 2 BB, 13 SO
That’s one miserable start and one solid one without run support. It should be noted, though, that the one miserable start was his only one of the second half. He hasn’t been throwing into the late innings a whole bunch, but he’s been preventing runs and missing bats.
Level of panic: 3. It’s a “1” when it comes to his pitching, but there are a couple of bonus points tacked on for age and blisters. He’s fine.
Alex Wood
What he’s done: 6 IP, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO
Wood missed a start, more because the Dodgers are, uh, creative with their use of the 10-day DL than because he’s broken. He’s still having a superlative season.
Level of panic: 3. Just because he’s a pitcher. Those things will break your heart.
Pedro Baez
What he’s done: 2⅔ IP, 7 R, 2 BB, 2 SO
The most surprising part of the losing streak is that most of the relievers have been clean. Kenley Jansen has been his old self. Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani have both been much better than they were immediately following the trade deadline. Ross Stripling gave up a run against the Diamondbacks last week, and it was his only run in the last eight games (11⅔ innings). Brandon Morrow had one poor outing, and Josh Fields was rusty after a, uh, creative application of the 10-day DL, but for the most part, the Dodgers bullpen has been strong.
This is important because the blueprint for the entire season was to get six innings from their starters, limit their innings, and turn the ball over to a cadre of strikeout monsters. It’s worked. It’ll probably work for a lot of the postseason, too, if needed.
Baez is a legit concern, though, just because he’s been so hittable.
Level of panic: 3. WE’RE STILL TALKING ABOUT A TINY HANDFUL OF GAMES, YOU WEIRDOS.
The Dodgers aren’t without their problems. I didn’t create a section for Curtis Granderson, who’s hitting .097/.253/.290 with his new team, because I wouldn’t have been able to slap a “3” on him. He’s 36 and a whiffmaster, and he doesn’t have to be a contributing force in the postseason. Chase Utley is 38, and he’ll occasionally play like it. Logan Forsythe has been lost all season, and he’s 3 for his last 29.
The Dodgers are still on pace to win 106 games. That’s probably their true talent level. Maybe their true talent level is a little closer to 100-win team after all. That’s still a pretty big deal.
When it comes to the postseason? Every team’s level of panic is a solid 9 because the postseason is a sloppy cauldron of chunky unfair stew. The postseason is when Kershaw can throw one pitch too many, where Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco are too busy mending to play and where a fine team like the Nationals can’t win a single danged series, no matter how hard they try. If the Dodgers didn’t have this losing jag, they were still destined to panic with that second loss in the NLDS or NLCS. That’s how it works.
For right now, though? It’s just two weeks of weirdness, a smattering of unfortunate events. I went looking for red flags and I didn’t find any. The Dodgers were never a 120-win team because no team is a 120-win team. They’re still awfully good, though, and even the awfully good teams can get their foot stuck in a bear trap for a couple of weeks.
The Dodgers broke baseball, and then baseball reminded them who’s in charge. It happens. But that doesn’t mean it’s time for them to panic.
(Although, it is slightly hilarious that the Diamondbacks timed a 13-game winning streak this perfectly, just to troll. Fine work, gents.)

