MLB trade rumor grade: Justin Verlander to the Brewers?

The Brewers could use pitching, and the Tigers would love to have one fewer super expensive contract.

The trade deadline isn’t July 31, yet rumors are already flying around. We’re here to help you sort them out by determining how believable and likely a particular rumor is. Can you believe that this service is free?

Next up on the list: there’s a rumor that Justin Verlander, longtime Tigers’ starter, is of interest to the Brewers according to the Free Press’ Anthony Fenech. Now, the Brewers wanting a starter is certainly believable — you’ve seen their rotation, yes? — so this one comes down heavily on how likely it is the Tigers are going to be moving Verlander and his not insubstantial contract.

What the Brewers gain by trading for Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander is having a super disappointing season in which he’s basically been league-average by ERA, and has averaged just over 5-2/3 innings per start — neither of those items is particularly Verlanderish. The rub here, though, is that a league-average starter who isn’t hurting your team and actually has the potential to be better than that is something the Tigers could use. Matt Garza has looked the most like the useful version of himself that he has in years, while Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson have both been doing work, but everyone else has been disappointing, bad, or some combination of the two.

Verlander might not be the ace he looked like for much of last season when he just missed winning a Cy Young award, but he could still end up being enough of a difference maker that the Brewers benefit by adding him — especially if they grab onto him more like now-ish rather than waiting for the deadline a little less than two weeks (and multiple Verlander starts) from now.

There’s also the dream that he can more closely resemble the starter he was a year ago with a change of scenery and the switch to a team that isn’t perpetually underperforming and disappointing, but you want me to play armchair sports psychologist about as much as I do, so let’s move on.

What the Tigers gain by trading Justin Verlander

The answer to this depends entirely on one thing: how much money are the Tigers sending along with Verlander? The 34-year-old is owed $28 million in each of the next two seasons, plus whatever he’s still owed from the 2017 season. If the Tigers want to chip in after determining that owing, say, two-thirds as much money while getting a prospect back is better than watching Verlander’s trade value potentially fall lower, then hey, there’s your answer. If the Tigers response is that they want all of the money taken care of by Milwaukee but in return they’ll reduce their expectations for a prospect return, then that’s probably something that could work, too!

If the Tigers want to play that in-the-middle game they’re so fond of in other areas of team development, and demand that they pay nothing or very little while the Brewers give up a major prospect in exchange for a Verlander who doesn’t look like anything like the Verlander who signed this deal to begin with, then, well, we’re all wasting our time a little bit here, aren’t we?

The good news for both the Tigers and Brewers is that Milwaukee, who had Opening Day payrolls of over $100 million in 2014 and 2015, opened this season at just $63 million. If they think Verlander is the piece for them, and they want to bring someone aboard that only costs money without having to give up a major prospect, then they likely have the room to do that. Verlander would, however, take up basically all of that room by himself.

So, the Tigers contributing some money to get a better prospect or package is probably the best bet here for both sides. And it also sounds like the tactic they plan on taking in negotiations. At least, that’s the whisper out there at a time of year full of nothing but.

Rumor Grade

This one is difficult... maybe a C+, due entirely to the likelihood of a deal happening. The Brewers need a starter, the Tigers want to shed one of their big contracts, and it’s not going to be Jordan Zimmermann or Miguel Cabrera who they get rid of. The problem is that Verlander is popular in Detroit, was a legit Cy Young candidate a year ago, and hasn’t been outright bad even if he hasn’t been himself. The Tigers might not be ready to part with him yet, and could instead balk at any package the Brewers deem reasonable.

Unless the Tigers plan on using the world “rebuild” within the next 10 days or so, Verlander probably isn’t going anywhere.