State of the Royals

As a lifelong Royals fan, although that isn't that long, the success of the team in 2014 and 2015 was probably the best time of my life from a fan perspective. The Chiefs were playing relatively well and looked like they were improving every year. The Royals, on the other hand, were finally putting it all together. The young guns were finally living up to their potential. So as a Royals fan, I was beyond happy. But I knew the success would be short lived.

Everyone knows the Royals struggle to keep their homegrown stars in town. Guys like Beltran, Damon, and Dye immediately come to mind. Eric Hosmer was blossoming into a national star and was set for a big payday in a couple of years (whether he is the player he will be paid like remains to be seen), Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, Kendrys Morales, and Lorenzo Cain were aging and their contracts would be expiring soon, and Cueto was a pure rental. This run, as magical and exciting as it was, cleaned out many of our highly-touted prospects. Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reid, and John Lamb were all looked at as current or future average to above-average starting pitchers. They were traded for half a season of Johnny Cueto. They then traded another top arm in Sean Manaea and a league average pitcher in Aaron Brooks for half a season of Ben Zobrist. Now dont misunderstand this article, I am not complaining one bit about these trades. They were key aspects in making our World Series run. But to make up for these lost prospects and soon to be veteran free agent, we needed to draft and develop current prospects well. That is something we have not done well recently.

For the first time in a long time, the Royals do not have one prospect on the top 100 list for most rankings. This is a serious problem. You could credit this to poor scouting or poor development or maybe even both. But our top prospect looks like a BOR arm or a good bullpen piece. If you look through our minor league system, you just don't see many guys who are going to make a big impact at the major league level barring some unforseen circumstance. I can see Josh Staumont making the rotation next year or being a dominant bullpen piece. Ryan O'Hearn looks like a decent first baseman. Hunter Dozier looks like a guy who could hit towards the bottom of the order at third base or a corner outfield spot. Jorge Bonafacio hasn't produced much. Most of their more intriguing players are pretty far off, including Seuly Matias, Chase Vallot, and Scott Blewett. It would help a lot if Kyle Zimmer could stay healthy, but I don't advise putting much stock into that.

This lack of depth in the system is what leads me to my conclusion. If KC is any more than 10 games out of a playoff spot entering July, I am all for a fire sale. This team is not going anywhere after this year the way it is built. The only guys I would want to avoid trading are Mondesi, Alex Gordon, Danny Duffy, Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas. If we sold Moustakas now, we would be selling him when his value is near rock-bottom. I think we could get good production from Moustakas, and I think we could resign him at a good value to this team. Danny Duffy, Gordo, and Salvy mean more to this team and city than just their production on the field, and we just extended their contracts anyway. But I would want to trade Hosmer, Cain, Kennedy, Hammel, Herrera, and Esky if we could get anything for him. That would go a long way in replenishing this team with young, controllable talent and would jumpstart our rebuild.

To have an extended period of winning, you must be able to keep important, homegrown talent, and draft and develop young players well. The Royals aren't financially capable of doing the former, so the latter becomes more important. Dayton Moore and his team have not met expectations when it comes to doing this. That is why the Royals must consider a fire sale this summer if things are not going as hoped.