Will Phillies be able to find the starting pitching depth they need?

The Phillies have next to no depth in the department that served as their primary strength from 2022-2025: starting pitching.

Pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater in less than two weeks, and as of now, the Phils have three locked-in starters — Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Nola — and two question marks in Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter. The biggest piece of the puzzle, Zack Wheeler, underwent thoracic outlet surgery in September and could be back at some point in May, perhaps even April if everything goes well.

Wheeler’s return will be a significant boost, obviously. But what if he misses more time than expected? What if one of the Phillies’ other starting pitchers suffers an injury? What if Nola is as unreliable as he was in 2025? What if Walker is unable to consistently get through five innings? What if Painter still needs more seasoning?

Even when the Phillies were at their richest with starting pitching a year ago at this time with a healthy Wheeler, the since-departed Ranger Suarez and Nola not yet showing signs of major decline, depth was important. There’s more fragility at this position than any other in baseball.

40-man roster SPs

Beyond the six arms listed above, the current backup plans on the Phillies’ 40-man roster would be Alan Rangel and Jean Cabrera. Rangel has never started a major-league game and Cabrera has never pitched above Double A. Moises Chace was an appealing starting pitching prospect when the Phillies acquired him from Baltimore for Gregory Soto at the 2024 trade deadline but he wasn’t in great shape last spring and made just six starts for Double-A Reading before suffering an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. He’ll likely miss at least a chunk of the first half this season.

Non-roster invitees

In terms of non-roster invitees with a starter’s stamina, the Phillies invited veteran Bryse Wilson to spring training. Wilson has started 57 games over the last eight seasons for four different teams, posting a 4.82 overall ERA. They’ll also bring left-hander Tucker Davidson to Clearwater. He made 22 starts last season in Korea before signing late with the Brewers. Davidson has started 17 big-league games, most of them in 2022 with the Braves and Angels.

In essence, nobody in the group to point to and say, “That’s my guy,” the first time another starter is needed.

Top remaining free agents

Fortunately, there are still some appealing options in free agency. It doesn’t seem likely the Phillies will sign Framber Valdez or Zac Gallen even if their markets haven’t materialized, and Chris Bassitt might be out of their price range as well, but other options still exist.

There’s Lucas Giolito, there’s Jose Quintana, there’s Zack Littell and even future Hall of Famers at the end of their rope in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Are any of Giolito, Quintana or Littell realistic for the Phillies? It will all depend on whether another team offers them the multi-year contract they’ve waited this long this winter to find. They may have to, but Giolito, Quintana and Littell are not going to want to sign a one-year deal. Why would they? Giolito, 30, is coming off his best season since 2021. Littell, 30, is coming off the best season of his career, too. Quintana was as reliable in 2025 as he was the prior three seasons, and at 37 would have no reason to bet on himself in the form of a one-year deal unless that’s his only option.

The possibility also exists that aging arms like Quintana, Scherzer and Verlander let the season begin if they don’t receive a worthwhile offer. They could always sign in the summer with a pitching-needy team, the rotation version of what David Robertson did in 2025.

Payroll concerns

Even if one of Giolito, Quintana or Littell is willing to take a one-year deal, the Phillies may not have the financial wiggle room to do it. Their current payroll projection from a luxury tax perspective is $316.4 million, well past the fourth tax threshold of $304M. The Phillies are in the harshest luxury tax bracket possible because they’ve exceeded it three years in a row, which increases the penalty on overages from 20% to 30% to 50%. And they’re also more than $60M over the tax, which generates another 60% surcharge. The Phils are basically at a point where they’re paying more than double for anyone they add.

That’s why Alec Bohm and his $10.2M salary have been included in more trade rumors this winter. It’s a contract figure ripe for reallocation, there just obviously hasn’t been a meaningful trade package offered to the Phils.

It’s safe to say that all of Quintana, Giolito and Littell are looking for at least $10 million annually. Tyler Mahle signed a one-year, $10M contract with the Giants last month and Adrian Houser signed on with the Giants for $22M over two years. They’re all in the same tier, essentially.

The tiers below

Still some other options out there, though, who might be willing to accept a salary closer to $5-7 million. There’s Aaron Civale, Chris Paddack, Tyler Anderson, Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning and German Marquez. They’re all No. 5-type starters like Walker. They’re not going to turn heads or finish with a sub-3.00 ERA, and none can be reliably counted on for 160+ innings, but adding any of them before the regular-season opener would position the Phillies better for the inevitability of starting pitching attrition.

The front office likely has a list of targets that it’s waiting out to see if it can sign at a better price. In 2024, the Phillies didn’t sign Spencer Turnbull until Valentine’s Day, and the kind of swingman skill set he provided the first half of that season is exactly what they could use this time around as well.