Statistical Spotlight: Kodai Senga’s Two Halves

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Truly, a tale of two halves for Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga.

Senga started off the 2025 campaign incredibly. He was leading the league in ERA in the beginning of the season, prompting many to discuss the possibility of a Cy Young award before the All-Star break.

Then an errant throw from Pete Alonso to Senga, who was running over to cover first base on a pretty routine ground ball, caused Senga to extend just too far and ultimately resulted in him suffering a grade-one hamstring injury. This sidelined Senga for some time, leading to a much more catastrophic fate once healthy. For Senga’s statistical spotlight, it is an analysis of his standard state line before and after his injury.

Senga’s standard state lines are stark contrasts of one another. He started off the year strong, starting 13 games in which he pitched 73.2 innings. His most remarkable stat was that he held a 1.47 ERA through his first 13 games. He held batters to below the Mendoza line at .195, as well as holding hitters to an impressive .283 OBP and .318 slug. He only allowed four home runs against the 293 batters he faced. Tremendous start. Then the injury happened.

Senga was sidelined until July 11, when he made his return against the Royals. He simply was not the same pitcher. For the second half of the season, he started in nine games and held an abysmal 5.90 ERA. He gave up a .270 batting average against, .369 OBP, and a ballooning .522 slug. He gave up twice as many home runs, eight, while starting in four fewer games. In fact, none of his starts after his injury made it past the sixth inning. Things were getting so rough that David Stearns sent him down to AAA Syracuse in the midst of a playoff push.

As written about Senga in previous articles, Senga has immense upside. When he’s healthy and on, he can be one of the best pitchers in MLB, showcased by his first-half performance in 2025. The only problem is that Senga has not been healthy for a full season since 2023.

This scenario is causing a lot of buzz around Senga this offseason. As stated in MMO’s morning briefing published on November 19, Senga is extremely available this winter. This seems, unfortunately, like a possible sell-low circumstance for the Mets at the moment. Hopefully, Stearns can negotiate a good deal to get a nice package back for the former National League All-Star.

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