The Phillies are getting closer to change in left field, but bigger lineup problems could go unsolved

SAN DIEGO – Max Kepler walked up to the plate in the eighth inning on Saturday. He turned back around when he saw Padres manager Mike Shildt emerge from the first base dugout. Shildt signaled for lefty Yuki Matsui. 

Otto Kemp had a bat in hand and teammates gathered around him near the iPads behind the benches in the visiting dugout. Kepler was going to come out of the game if the Padres had a lefty pitching late. His outfield mate Brandon Marsh patted him on the shoulder as he walked down the stairs and into the tunnel. 

It was the first time the Phillies replaced Kepler in a game with a pinch hitter. 

“We talked yesterday,” Thomson said pregame Sunday. “He was fine with being pinch hit for last night. I’m sure he’s not overly happy, but he was professional about it.” 

Kemp, an infielder learning the outfield on the fly, swung at five pitches out of the zone and drove a splitter the other way for a base hit. He had dozens of friends and family in the stands to watch him play seven miles away from his small Christian liberal arts school Point Loma Nazarene University. It was a great moment in an otherwise forgettable last series to end the regular season for the Phillies. 

Kemp replaced Kepler in the starting lineup on Sunday against right-hander Nick Pivetta a day after Kepler was moved down to the No. 8 spot, the lowest he has batted in the lineup all season. The explanation, according to Thomson, was that the Phillies are expected to see lefties Yusei Kikuchi and Tyler Anderson in the first series out of the break against the Angels. Thomson did not want Kemp to go nine days between his last start on July 9 against the Giants and the first day back from the break. 

But it’s hard to not take it as a sign that Kepler, the Phillies’ only offseason addition on the position player side, may be running out of time. 

He has been a bit better in the month of July. His .748 OPS in July puts him in the middle of the pack among Phillies lineup regulars. He is above Nick Castellanos (.563), Trea Turner (.597), Bryson Stott (.535) and Marsh (.700). 

But it’s not nearly enough for him to make up for his .671 OPS through the first three months of the season.  

The hot stretches have not lasted as long as the cold ones. 

“He’s gone through some really good stretches where it’s like, ‘Well OK. He’s taking off, and he looks like the guy we saw in spring training,’” Thomson said about Kepler pregame Saturday. “Then there’s other times when he is smothering balls, just getting out in front too much and trying to do too much.” 

The numbers are puzzling. Kepler is third on the team behind Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber in walks with 36, but has just a .307 on-base percentage. If it wasn’t for two home run robberies, he would be second on the team in home runs with 12. The lack of power across the lineup is a separate — and much bigger issue. 

But Kepler is running the lowest BABIP of his career at .235. He hasn’t had a three-hit game since April 26. He has one extra-base hit in his last 73 plate appearances. He doubled in two straight games on June 16 and 17 — and hasn’t since. 

Left field is the most convenient place for change in the Phillies lineup. Kepler is on a one-year deal, so Dave Dombrowski can do something that he has had to do in nearly every season of his Phillies tenure: cut bait with an offseason acquisition near the trade deadline. 

Replacing Kepler, however, does little to address the more uncomfortable issues associated with the Phillies lineup. The power outage outside of Kyle Schwarber is real. Phillies right-handed hitters are tied for the fourth fewest home runs in MLB. Bryce Harper, when healthy and playing, has been great, but not among the elite. They have too many guys that could benefit from sliding down in the order. Stott, a player the Phillies are counting on to be a pillar for years to come, has a .636 OPS. 

The biggest issue is that two National League powerhouses, the Cubs and Dodgers, have gotten significantly more production from their best hitters. Both teams have four qualified hitters with a higher OPS than Harper. The Phillies’ starting pitching is better, and that’s what might ultimately matter in the end, but there’s little the Phillies can do between now and the deadline to bridge the lineup gap between potential playoff opponents. 

If there’s a significant upgrade to be made in the outfield, what would it look like? It’s difficult to gauge who exactly is available that would be a no doubt upgrade over Kepler. His former Twins teammate Byron Buxton just hit for the cycle on Saturday, but it’s unclear if Minnesota is willing to part ways with the oft injured outfielder signed through 2028. Boston’s Jarren Duran and Cleveland’s Steven Kwan would require quite a haul to obtain, but it’s far from certain that either will move. 

It would not be surprising if the Phillies end up making what appears to be a lateral move in the outfield. 

There’s also the Justin Crawford factor in all of this. The 21-year-old former first round pick is batting .331 with an .839 OPS at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. 

If promoting Crawford, benching/cutting Kepler and moving Marsh to left was as obvious of a solution as it seems, it probably would have already happened. 

But top hitting prospects around baseball, from Jackson Holliday last year to Jac Caglianone this year, have struggled to adjust to major league pitching. Crawford, who hits the ball hard, but uses speed and contact on the ground to reach base, would need time to adjust to MLB pitching. Ideally, you would like to fit him into a lineup that is clicking in multiple spots. It’s unfair to bring him up hoping he makes a meaningful impact, but that’s what they need. 

For now, the Phillies are likely to ride it out with a combination of Kepler and Kemp in left field until at least the deadline. It might not be a strict platoon, with Kemp eating into some of the playing time against right-handed starters. 

Maybe a last minute hot streak from Kepler changes things. Or maybe the Phillies have already made up their mind. 

“It’s not over yet,” Thomson said about Kepler. “We’ve got a long ways to go. Things can change.”