Series Preview: Surging Mets Host Rays

The New York Mets (45-24) remain the best team in baseball following their sweep of the Washington Nationals. It did come at a cost though, as Kodai Senga suffered a hamstring strain that has put him on the injured list. Losing a front end starter with the best ERA (1.47 ERA) in the National League certainly hurts. Luckily for the Mets, their rotation is deep and has reinforcements on their way back.

The Tampa Bay Rays (36-32) will come to Queens off the back of losing a series to the Boston Red Sox. Jonathan Aranda and the talented Junior Caminero are two names to watch out for.

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Taj Bradley (4-5, 4.58 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (7-3, 2.95 ERA): Bradley was hoping to rebound in 2025 after pitching to a 5.30 ERA in the second half last season. So far, a step forward in terms of consistency has yet to materialize. Bradley already has eight quality starts, but he has also given up five earned runs or more in three outings this season. One of those came against the Miami Marlins last Saturday, where he allowed a season-high seven runs in four-plus innings. Holmes has two wins in the month of June, both of which came against the Colorado Rockies. Holmes has excellent career numbers against the Rays with a 1-0 record and 0.93 ERA in 19 1/3 innings across 19 appearances, all of which have come as a reliever. It should be an interesting chess match for him.
• Saturday: Drew Rasmussen (5-4, 2.22 ERA) vs. Tylor Megill (5-4, 3.76 ERA): Rasmussen’s comeback story has been one of perseverance. A third major elbow injury suffered in May 2023 kept him out of baseball for over a year. After returning as a short-inning reliever late last year, Rasmussen has excelled in his return to the rotation early on this season. He has given up three earned runs or less in eight consecutive starts, dating back to April 30. Megill had a 1.74 ERA at the end of April. Since then, he has pitched to a 5.61 ERA over his last seven starts. Not good. With Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea nearing returns to the big leagues, Megill may be in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. He could really help himself and the team out with a strong, quality outing Saturday.
• Sunday: Shane Baz (5-3, 4.97 ERA) vs. Griffin Canning (6-2, 3.22 ERA): Baz has great stuff, maybe the best in the Rays’ rotation, but injuries have forced him to miss quite a bit of time during his career. Since debuting in 2021, Baz has only made 36 starts. After a really strong April, he has pitched to a 6.75 ERA over his last 41 1/3 innings. Baz’s last quality start came all the way back on April 25 against the San Diego Padres. Canning’s stellar season has continued to give the Mets a big boost. The team moved to 10-3 with him on the mound after their 5-4 win against the Nationals on Monday. Canning did allow four earned runs in that start, however, including a season-high two home runs. That’s something he will hope to avoid against the Rays on Sunday.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

Jeff McNeil has received a ton of attention in recent days for consistent contributions offensively. That praise is well-deserved, by the way. Over his last 11 games, McNeil is slashing .317/.364/.732 with five home runs and 11 RBIs. My focus and attention has been on the play of Brandon Nimmo, though.

Manager Carlos Mendoza has made all kinds of good adjustments during his time with the Mets. One of those includes reinserting Nimmo into the two-hole in front of Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. It has totally unlocked both him and their top of the order. In 48 plate appearances out of that spot, Nimmo is hitting .381 with a 1.196 OPS and four home runs.

PREDICTION

The Mets are a staggering 27-7 at home this season. Citi Field has been a tough place to come and win at for opposing teams, largely in part due to the fans providing a playoff environment day after day. The Rays are a good team, but the Mets are starting to really hit their stride. It won’t be a third consecutive sweep, but the Mets will take two of three this weekend.

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