Kodai Senga Deserves More Attention in Cy Young Race

Kodai Senga is off to an unbelievable start in 2025, pitching to a National League-best 1.59 ERA through 12 starts. His numbers are certainly eye-catching, but you wouldn’t necessarily know that based on the odds to win the NL Cy Young award. At the moment, the Mets’ ace has longer odds than quite a few starting pitchers.

All Odds Presented By FanDuel

National League CY Young 2025 

Odds As Of June 8, 2025:

• Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes (-185)
• Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+500)
• Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler (+1000)
• San Francisco Giants RHP Logan Webb (+1500)
• Atlanta Braves LHP Chris Sale (+1800)
• Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sánchez (+3500)
• Milwaukee Brewers RHP Freddy Peralta (+3500)
• Washington Nationals LHP MacKenzie Gore (+3500)
• San Francisco Giants LHP Robbie Ray (+3500)
• New York Mets RHP Kodai Senga (+4500)

As you can see, the oddsmakers currently have Senga behind a significant number of pitchers. If he has the best ERA in the National League, why is that?

The first and probably the most important factor is the number of innings Senga has thrown. Entering this week, he has 68 innings. That is the lowest mark among the starters listed above. While most of them have only thrown a handful of additional innings in comparison to Senga, the expectation is that the gap may continue to widen.

Senga was limited to one regular-season start last season due to shoulder and calf injuries. He returned from the latter in time for the Mets’ postseason run, throwing five innings across three appearances in the NLDS and the NLCS. With that in mind, it’s difficult to predict how many starts Senga will wind up making this season. Will the team consider skipping his spot in the rotation once or twice down the stretch to keep him fresh for the postseason? That could be a possibility come September.

That being said, Senga did throw 166 1/3 innings during his rookie season in 2023. He can be a workhorse while maintaining an elite level of pitching. He showed that two years ago. If Senga can reach at least 160 innings, that should give him a shot, assuming his stats remain at or near where they stand at the moment. In 2021, Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young with 167 innings under his belt. In 2024, Chris Sale won the award with 177 2/3 innings pitched. An inning total in that range could get it done for Senga.

Next, the closest qualified starter to him in the National League in ERA is the betting favorite Skenes, who has a 1.88 ERA—three-tenths of a point higher than Senga’s.

An increased usage of his forkball has really helped Senga. In 2023, he threw the pitch 23.8% of the time. This season, that is up to 28.8% of the time. Opponents are hitting .120 with a .185 slugging percentage and a 41.3% whiff rate against Senga’s forkball. It’s one of the most dominant pitches in the game. His mix of the four-seam fastball, forkball and cutter has taken Senga to the next level.

If he can remain healthy for the remainder of the regular season, he should have the innings required to contend for a Cy Young. Of course, continuing to pitch at the level Senga has shown through two months is just as important, if not more. Once Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas return, the Mets may go to a 6-man rotation. That may impact Senga’s case as the season progresses. We will have to wait and see on that. Right now, Senga deserves to be in the conversation as the summer starts to heat up.

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