Series Preview: Royals at Guardians

The first rematch and last till late July

The Guardians and Royals tonight will enter a return engagement that may have an outsized impact on the AL Central division race.

The Guardians are 6-6 and 16th in MLB with 100 wRC+, 26th in baserunning runs above average at -1, 26th in Defense at -5.4, 29th in starting pitcher SIERA at 4.79 and tenth in bullpen SIERA at 3.29. The Royals are 7-6, 26th in MLB with 76 wRC+, 13th in baserunning runs above average at -0.1, 22nd in Defense at -2.8, eighth in starting pitcher SIERA at 3.57, and 20th in bullpen SIERA at 3.74. The Guardians have a 2-1 lead in the season series, so need five more wins to clinch the tiebreaker.

Matchups:
Friday, 6:10PM, Kris Bubic, LHP 2.48 SIERA vs. Tanner Bibee 4.83 SIERA
Saturday, 6:10PM, Michael Lorenzen, RHP 3.72 SIERA vs. Luis Ortiz 5.25 SIERA
Sunday, 1:40PM, Cole Ragans, LHP 2.18 SIERA vs. Ben Lively 4.49 SIERA

Analysis: This series is a big test of two dynamics in the Cleveland Guardians 2025 season - are they a lefty-mashing team as they would seem to be on paper, and do they have improved starting pitching from 2024? They are going to need a big bounceback from Tanner Bibee’s last atrocious start and steady building on his last improved start from Luis Ortiz. Ben Lively seems like he’s always going to give his team a chance, but he’ll need folks like Carlos Santana, Jhonkensy Noel and (hopefully healthy) Lane Thomas to back him up against one of the top lefties in the game in Ragans. Tonight’s game will be quite cold at 41 degrees at game time, Saturday will be 44 degrees at game time, and Sunday is set to be around 50 degrees at game time. So, like all cold weather games, Friday and Saturday will be about scratching enough runs across the board and making things miserable on the Royals’ hitters from there.

Right now, Maikel Garcia with a 126 wRC+, and Bobby Witt Jr. with a 122 wRC+ lead the way for their struggling offense. Meanwhile, the excellent Royals’ pitching will look to control Austin Hedges 231 wRC+ (this is a tongue-in-cheek inclusion, folks), Steven Kwan 177 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 174 wRC+, Kyle Manzardo 158 wRC+ and Carlos Santana 122 wRC+.

Despite the very unfortunate beaning of Jonathan India in last series by Emmanuel Clase, the Guardians’ pitchers need to pitch inside. They also need to make sure BOBBY WITT JR DOES NOT BEAT THEM. And, I’d like to see Tanner Bibee throw his fastball less and rely on his far superior secondary stuff. Winning this series would be a huge way to redeem a difficult start to the year, and I look forward to attending my first game of the 2025 season this weeknend and rooting the Guardians on in an early, big matchup.