PECOTA projected standings begin February with Mariners around 86 wins

The projections from Baseball Prospectus will shift with signings, trades, and injuries by Opening Day.

The annual release by Baseball Prospectus of its PECOTA projections has come, with a projection for the Seattle Mariners at present to be the third place team in the AL West, with a win projection that would snag them the third Wild Card spot. The 85.8 win projection is a combination of projection system and depth chart/playing time estimation, with many thousands of simulations of the system generating a 57.9% rate of this M’s club cracking the playoffs.

The AL West looks to be a three-team race once again, with the Texas Rangers projected for the top spot at the moment at an 89.3 win average in PECOTA’s simulations, the second-highest by a hair in the AL behind an 89.7 win projection for the Yankees, and the highest chance at the AL West crown. Houston is sandwiched between their in-state rival and the M’s, with an 86.9 win clip that reflects their regression should they fail to retain Alex Bregman after trading off Kyle Tucker.

While PECOTA is skeptical of the Rangers pitching staff, it does not see their bullpen as disastrous in the way others currently do, and expects bounce-backs from Adolis García and Jonah Heim, among others. For the M’s, there’s continued belief in the sturdiness of the rotation, however the wariness around the health of Matt Brash and Gregory Santos, as well as skepticism of the surprisingly stellar numbers from 2024 mainstays like Collin Snider and Troy Taylor has the M’s bullpen looking dicey as it was late last year more than the strength it’s been for most of the past several. A below-average assessment of the offense anticipates a great deal of time for Mitch Haniger at DH and Ryan Bliss at second, which both seem unavoidable given the roster’s current construction.

It is, essentially, as expected for this roster: not bad, and a bit better than a coin flip to sneak into the playoffs, with about the same odds of winning the AL West as there was of Dylan Moore getting a hit in any given at-bat last year. Given the way Seattle’s plans hinge on Moore this year, they’re clearly satisfied with that gamble.