Kansas City Royals: The state of the farm system

We dive into the strengths and weaknesses of the Royals farm system

Over the last few weeks, we have dove deep into the Kansas City Royals' top 15 prospects and honorable mentions who just missed the cut. Each one of the articles linked below includes an in-depth analysis of each player, including scouting grades and more.

• Honorable Mentions
• Ranks 11 -15
• Ranks 6 - 10
• Ranks 1 - 5

Now that we’ve done that, it’s time to go through the overall state of the farm system and the top 15 prospects. This article will cover the strengths, weaknesses, and where the organization has seemed to turn its attention in the most recent drafts. Before we dive in, here are the current top 15 in order:

STRENGTHS

Catching, Catching, Catching

Let's start with the strengths of this farm system. The list makes it easy to point directly to the depth of catching prospects in this farm system. Three of them sit in the top five, and that doesn’t include other catchers who have made some noise in the farm system, like Hyungchan Um and Luca Tresh. In a future article, I’ll dive deep into the top three (Mitchell, Jensen, and Ramirez) and who could be the possible replacement for Salvador Perez, but having this type of depth is enormous for the Royals. It’s hard to find good catching prospects, and the Royals have some of the best catching prospects in the league.

Blake Mitchell presents the most upside as he was highly touted in the 2023 MLB draft and has shown off many of his plus tools in his young pro career. Carter Jensen had a breakout campaign in 2024. He started to put it together at the plate and showed he could do more than draw a walk. He found more barrels and posted some decent exit velos as a result. There is some platoon risk there, given his struggles against lefties, but he skyrocketed up prospect lists given his performance and underlying data.

Ramon Ramirez might be the most intriguing of the three, but he has yet to play above rookie ball. He showcased some solid EVs for his age, and the bat has very much played in both the Dominican Summer League and Arizona Complex League. He’s new to catching, so there is still some development to be had there, but the sky is the limit for him. Next year will be a big test for him as he will likely experience his first season in Low-A.

Depth in Arms

While the Royals might not have the shiny stud arm, they’ve got a ton of depth on the pitching side in terms of guys with some decent upside and safe floors. Ben Kudrna leads the group of arms right now, but there could be some argument that Noah Cameron should be the top prospect arm in this system. He had a career year last year and showcased that he might have one of the safest floors despite not having the most electric stuff. He’s a guy who’s likely to make his major league debut in 2025.

When it comes to Kudrna, he hasn’t fully developed as the Royals have hoped thus far. He looked excellent early this year but struggled to adjust to Double-A. The fastball velo hasn’t got back to where it was when he was drafted, and he doesn’t generate the swing-and-miss you’d hope for. He’s still flashed some excellent stuff, and there could be an electric reliever in there at worst. There is still a lot of time left for him, but he will need to take some serious steps in his development in 2025.

Blake Wolters is the guy the Royals and fans are waiting to see pop. Coming out of the draft, he was compared to Bobby Miller for his electric fastball and slider. Wolters dealt with some decrease in velo this year (although the fastball was still in the mid-to-upper 90s) and some injuries. He’s still really young and only going into his second entire season of pro ball.

Steven Zobac, Felix Arronde, and Hiro Wyatt round out the strength in arms, and all possess upside in their own ways. Zobac has an insanely good fastball that jumps on hitters and has succeeded at every level. Arronde took some of the most considerable strides out of any of the pitchers as he saw a significant increase in value without any impact on his command. Wyatt was another cold weather prep arm the Royals took, and he features a plus fastball and slider. He still needs some improvement on his changeup and command but things are trending in the right direction for him.

The 2024 MLB draft was a success for the Royals as they loaded up with arms, highlighted by right-hander Drew Beam and left-hander David Shields. Beam was one of the safest floor arms in his draft class and could be one of the most underrated picks of the draft. He doesn’t possess anything flashy in his pitch mix, but there is a high probability he is a big-league starter, even if it is a back-end-of-the-rotation type player.

As for Shields, he was one of the youngest players in the draft and has a polished delivery and attacks the strike zone. That’s hard to find in a prep arm like that, and it gives him plenty of upside. On top of Beam and Shields, the Royals have many other intriguing arms they took who could make some noise, including L.P. Langevin, Kyle DeGroat, AJ Causey, and others.

Jac Caglianone

We can’t discuss the Royals' strengths without talking about Jac Caglianone. The 2024 first-rounder is by far the most talked about prospect in the system, and for good reason. Many of you probably already know why. It was exciting to see the Royals not take a player based on positional need but instead take the best player available. He has 70-grade juice with the potential of being 80-grade. He put up some absurd numbers at Florida, getting intentionally walked more than he struck out last year. Overall he had a slash line of .355/.447/.760 in his collegiate career with 75 home runs and 189 RBI over three years.

Caglianone has some of the best plate coverage I’ve seen from any hitter. There are some concerns with his chase rate, but he somehow put up just a 10% K-rate in college despite the high chase numbers. He could be an extremely fast riser in 2025, primarily if he focuses just on hitting, which is what has been reported that he will do.

WEAKNESSES

Lack of Elite Prospects

The biggest weakness of the Royals farm system, and why it is consistently ranked low, is that it lacks elite, top-tier prospects. Outside of Jac Caglianone and Blake Mitchell, they don’t possess any guys with a 55 or 60 OFP. As we mentioned earlier, the system is chock-full of 40-45 OFP types, which is its strength. Not having those guys in the top 100 or borderline top 100 hurts the farm system. They are far from 2011 when they had NINE top 100 prospects led by Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. You can look at previous drafts prior to 2023 in the first one to three rounds to really see why the system has plummeted the way it has:

• 2020: 1st - Asa Lacy, CB-A - Nick Loftin, 2nd - Ben Hernandez
• 2021: 1st - Frank Mozzicato, 2nd - Ben Kudrna, CB-B - Peyton Wilson
• 2022: 1st - Gavin Cross, 2nd - Cayden Wallace, 3rd - Mason Barnett

They just failed to hit on most, if not all, of their first and second-round picks from 2020 - 2022. While there has been a significant positive shift in draft strategy in 2023 and 2024, these three drafts have set the tone for why the system was ranked so low over the last few years.

When you look at rankings across baseball, Caglianone and Mitchell are usually the only two there, and sometimes Mitchell doesn’t even make it to the top 100. Ramon Ramirez made Just Baseball’s top 100, but only having one or two guys on that list in most consensus rankings will have your system near the backend regarding ranking in all Major League Baseball.

ORGANIZATION’S PROSPECT OUTLOOK

Despite the weaknesses, the farm system has been trending positively over the last two years. The Royals put together two solid drafts in 2023 and 2024. However, the jury is still out on 2024, as many drafted this year have yet to debut. Regardless, the draft strategy by the Royals has been more consistent and has started to yield somewhat better results.

The 2024 draft paints the best picture of that. Under new Director of Amateur Scouting Brian Bridges, the Royals put together a very solid draft plan. Bridges has long been associated with a more traditional approach to scouting. However, it was clear the Royals embraced a mix of traditional methods and data-driven analytics in their draft strategy for 2024. Their selections, particularly on day two, prioritized college pitchers who excelled in fastball metrics, had standout secondary pitches, or demonstrated an aggressive approach to attacking the strike zone.

There are currently many positive trends for the Royals farm system and aspects for fans to get excited about. Seeing where they rank by the industry can be frustrating, but there are far more positives and a lot to like about this system despite the industry narrative. Is it perfect? Most definitely not. But the trends over the last two years give you some hope. It can be frustrating for fans to wait for the farm to improve, especially when you are in win-now mode and have limited pieces to trade. The system can improve in ranking if any 2024 selections hit the ground running in 2025. Time will only tell. Things at the very least are trending in the right direction.