2024 Community Prospect Rankings: #1 prospect in the Cincinnati Reds system

Which future Red deserves the top spot? Vote here!

After a mostly banner year across the farm in 2023, the 2024 season for the young (and future) crop of Cincinnati Reds didn’t exactly take a collective step forward.

There were injuries galore to both the rookies that graduated off last year’s Community Prospect Rankings and to many who ranked prominently, while Noelvi Marte - last year’s #1 overall pick in the CPR - was suspended 80 games and never got going after returning.

That said, there’s still a whole lot of talent down on the Cincinnati farm, even if many of the best and brightest are in need of bounce-back seasons in 2025.

We’ll kick off this year’s CPR rankings with a big list and let voting sort it out over the course of two days. That’s how this works around here in case you’re new here - there’s a poll at the bottom where you can cast your vote for which of the included prospects you think is the cream of the collective crop that day. We’ll ultimately end up ranking the Top 20 overall prospects in the system by the time pitchers and catchers descend upon Goodyear, Arizona for Spring Training.

(No, wait...you’ll end up ranking the Top 20 overall prospects in the system!)

Let the tally begin!

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Chase Burns, RHP - 22 years old

2024 at a glance: 2.70 ERA, 0.92 FIP, 191/30 K/BB in 100.0 IP for Wake Forest University; #2 overall selection by the Reds in the 2024 MLB Draft

Pros: 102 mph fastball paired with a devastating slider as part of potential four-pitch mix (curve, change);

Cons: Allows an oddly large number of dingers given his stuff and K-rate (14 in ‘24, 37 in 252.1 IP in trio of collegiate years); did not pitch after being drafted

Despite most draft rankings suggesting the top 3-5 picks in the 2024 MLB Draft would be hitters, the Reds eschewed that in taking Burns out of Wake Forest. To be fair, Burns was pretty clearly rated the top overall pitcher in the draft class, so perhaps the Reds have just zeroed in on acquiring the best pitching they possibly can at the top of drafts (see: Rhett Lowder in ‘23).

Burns has an incredible slider as well as plus velocity on his heater, two offerings that lead a developing overall arsenal. All signs point to him moving quickly through the Reds system, with an off-chance he gets a late season cameo as early as 2025.

Rhett Lowder, RHP - 22 years old

2024 at a glance: 3.64 ERA, 113/24 K/BB in 108.2 IP split between Dayton Dragons (A+ Midwest League), Chattanooga Lookouts (AA Southern League), and Louisville Bats (AAA International League); 1.17 ERA, 22/14 K/BB in 30.2 IP with Cincinnati Reds

Pros: Excellent strike zone command through minors career; fastball that runs up to 97 mph and perhaps the best changeup in the 2023 draft class; developing slider

Cons: Struggled to put batters away in first taste of MLB play; ‘nibbled a bit’

Lowder, the Reds 1st round pick from the 2023 MLB Draft, rocketed his way across the minors due to his polish more than his numbers, though his numbers in three stops in 2024 were mostly pretty good. Then, he proceeded to make 6 starts for the Reds themselves, allowing runs in just a pair of them (and just 4 ER total in 30.2 IP).

You’d think that would make him a shoo-in for one of the absolute top handful of prospects in the game, right?

The run prevention was amazing. His ability to control the zone through the minors has been exquisite. The only thing keeping our expectations even the slightest bit tempered with Rhett is that the two things disn’t quite overlap in his initial big league action. He got outs, yes, but his K/9 plummeted while his walks spiked - in other words, he didn’t ‘look’ nearly as dominant as those surface numbers suggest.

Maybe he was just a bit gassed at the end of his first full pro year, and that’s got our hopes up that we’ll see him missing more big league bats (and painting more corners) as a big leaguer from the get-go in 2025.

Edwin Arroyo, SS - 21 years old

2024 at a glance: .253/.309/.333 with 7 SB in 18 G spent exclusively with the Glendale Desert Dogs (Arizona Fall League)

Pros: Prototypical shortstop defense with good arm, range, and glovework; wiry athleticism; line-drive power with potential for more from the switch-hitter

Cons: Major shoulder surgery forced him to miss entire 2024 regular season

Arroyo injured his shoulder on a dive in spring training ‘24, and subsequent surgery and recovery cost him a chance to show his chops at the AA level last year. Fortunately, he was once again ready to roll as the Arizona Fall League began, and that gave him a place to shake off the rust and get 81 quality PA to wrap the year.

It’s hard to read too much into his powerless small sample in AFL play, but that’s all we have to go on from 2024 with Arroyo. His defense still remains among the absolute best in the game, and at 21 years old he’s eight months younger than Burns and just three months older than Sal Stewart. In other words, there’s still plenty of time for him to develop, and he’ll likely do so with AA Chattanooga to begin 2025.

If his gap power returns, he still projects as a viable big league shortstop with plus defense and baserunning, and that’s an incredibly valuable piece of the franchise puzzle.

Chase Petty, RHP - 22 years old

2024 at a glance: 4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 130/59 K/BB in 137.0 IP split between Chattanooga Lookouts (AA Southern League) and Louisville Bats (AAA International League)

Pros: Athletic build, fastball that can touch 100 mph; plus slider, developing changeup; allowed zero (0) home runs in 68.0 IP in 2023

Cons: Walk-rate spiked in 2024 (3.9 after sitting at 2.0 in 2023)

As Doug Gray noted at RedsMinorLeagues.com, Petty’s stuff looked better than ever in 2024 despite his numbers taking a bit of a step back. He dealt with an elbow injury early in the 2023 campaign that limited his workload and perhaps cost him a bit of velocity, but the power pitcher the Reds thought they’d acquired from Minnesota in the Sonny Gray deal finally looked to be back last year.

Regaining his command of the zone will be the priority for Petty in 2025. He reached AAA at the end of last season, but logged just 10.0 IP there across a pair of starts. Barring a brilliant spring, he’ll return there to begin the upcoming year and the former 1st round draftee will be a call away from his first big league action.

Cam Collier, 3B - 20 years old

2024 at a glance: .248/.355/.433 (129 wRC+) with 20 HR, 2 SB in 507 PA for the Dayton Dragons(A+ Midwest League)

Pros: High contact left-handed bat with excellent strike zone command; power finally emerged at Dayton after escaping the pitcher-friendly Florida State League

Cons: Not the most athletic defender or base runner, who may have to move off 3B; ran both very hot and very cold for long stretches of 2024 season

Only Chris Newell (Los Angeles Dodgers org, 23) socked more Midwest League homers than Collier’s 20 last year, and Collier did all of that damage as a 19 year old. He sported a 13.0% walk-rate and his 66 total walks ranked as the 5th most across the league.

He’s got a strong arm, per scouting reports, but he’s not the most agile defender at 3B. There remain questions as to whether he’d be a better fit at 1B (or DH altogether), but at least the bat is beginning to make enough noise to make that less of a long-term concern. Keep in mind that just three hitters who logged at least 300 PA in the Midwest League last year were younger than Cam, who’ll ply his trade for AA Chattanooga to begin 2025.

Sal Stewart, 3B/2B - 21 years old

2024 at a glance: .279/.391/.454 with 8 HR, 10 SB in 338 PA split with the Dayton Dragons (High-A Midwest League)

Pros: As many walks (138) as strikeouts (139) so far as a professional, advanced strike zone command; raw power

Cons: In-game power still developing; still a defensive nomad despite reasonable showing at 2B; wrist injury ended season early (and required surgery)

The Reds selected Sal Stewart out of high school in Florida with the 32nd overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, doing so despite knowing he was committed to baseball powerhouse Vanderbilt University. Perhaps they knew something, or had some inside info from former Vandy pitching coach Derek Johnson, since they managed to get Stewart signed for just the 40th highest bonus of the draft class despite that strong commitment.

He’s done nothing but be an offensive machine in his pro career, sporting one of the best K/BB ratios of any minor leaguer while pairing it with emerging power that’s playing up as he advanced out of the hitter hell that is the Florida State League. His 144 wRC+ with Dayton ranked as the 5th best among the 87 hitters who logged at least 300 PA there.

Unfortunately, an off the field wrist injury in July ended his season and required surgery, though as of October he was reportedly swinging a bat again and is on-track to face AA pitching for the first time in 2025.

Alfredo Duno, C/DH - 19 years old

2024 at a glance: .267/.367/.422 with 3 HR, 2 SB in 139 PA with Daytona Tortugas (Class A Florida State League)

Pros: Plus arm and agility at the catching position paired with plus raw power and elite bat speed

Cons: We’ve still barely seen him play, let alone catch (just 21 G as a C in his pair of pro seasons within the Reds organization)

A rib issue cut short Duno’s first full season of pro ball in 2024, though he flashed precisely what the scouting report suggested in his limited time with the Tortugas: an advanced offensive approach, some big projectible pop, and athleticism behind the dish.

I’d like to think that over 100 or so games with Dayton in 2025, the world would see enough of that to be convinced he’s the heir apparent to the Cincinnati catching position, and a clear-cut Top 100 overall prospect. Of course, he’s so far 0 for 2 in staying healthy enough to show that to the world, so we’ll have to hope he bats .333 in that category by season’s end.