One Key to Game Two for the Guardians: Decoding Gerrit Cole
Cleveland’s final boss awaits in The Bronx with tough decisions ahead...
Grady Sizemore’s leadoff home run in New York, the midges, Joba Chamberlain’s career-altering blow-up in Cleveland, the 12 runs scored off of Chien-Ming Wang in two games. That 2007 ALDS was memorable, and you won’t find a Cleveland fan that forgets it.
That was also 2007.
Since then, it’s been three tries, and three ugly losses. That’s the way it’s supposed to be though, right? The underdog can only be the underdog if they lose for long enough, but at what point will it be just that, enough? In 2017, the blown 2-0 lead in the ALDS spelled a heartbreaking demise to a record-setting season. In 2020, Brad Hand gave the season away to DJ LeMahieu. In 2022, despite valiant efforts, Aaron Civale’s disastrous start in Game Five of the ALDS spelled the end for the Guardians once again. 2024 represents the seventh time Cleveland has seen the Yankees in a playoff series. The Yankees have won four of those previous six.
Of the past two losses, the face of demise that has stared back at Cleveland has been Gerrit Cole. In a lot of ways, Gerrit Cole represents what the Guardians do not. The rich coastal elite from California, relocated to New York, raised a Yankee fan. Ownership views aside, if you remove either José Ramírez or Andrés Giménez’s contracts from next season’s payroll, Cole will make more money than the current structured 2025 Guardians roster combined. He is the antithesis of what Cleveland represents, and he is the face of the New York Yankees in October, as far as the city of Cleveland is concerned.
As a Yankee, Gerrit Cole has faced Cleveland seven times in the regular season. Cole has a 2.84 career ERA against Cleveland in those starts. Guardians hitters are swinging below the Mendoza line against the one-time Cy Young winner, posting a .596 OPS. In fact, Cole has failed to go at least six innings while allowing more than two runs just once, and the Yankees are 6-1 in those seven starts.
In the postseason, it’s been even worse for the Guardians. In 2020, Cole went six innings in Cleveland, allowing two runs, and striking out 13 in a blowout Yankees win. In the 2022 Division Series, he went a perfect 2-0 against the Guardians, allowing just three runs across 13.1 innings with 16 strikeouts.
Yes, the Guardians got to Tarik Skubal in Game Five after it appeared they couldn’t even touch him in Game Two last series, but Gerrit Cole represents something mental for this Guardians team. The core of this team has seen nothing but loss at the hands of Cole for years now. Of the nine players who have seen regular season at-bats against Cole, only José Ramírez has any kind of successful history against him, hitting .391 with a pair of home runs across 30 plate appearances. The only other players with averages even at or above the .200 mark? Will Brennan (2-8) and Austin Hedges (1-5).
The light does not shine favorably upon the Guardians in New York for Game Two after an abysmal Game One performance, and facing Cole feels daunting. However, if the Guardians want to push this series to Cleveland with home field advantage flipped rather than be on the verge of getting swept, they must attack Cole’s fastball and cutter. Historically, that’s not been the way to go against Cole for Cleveland. In those aforementioned seven starts, Guardians hitters have hit just .182 against his heater.
However, Cole’s fastball usage this season is the lowest it’s been as a Yankee at just 45.3%, and his cutter usage has more than doubled from last season, sitting at 15.8%. There’s been a slight downtick in velocity for Cole this season, but the induced vertical break on his already elite fastball has actually improved slightly. That being said, Cole has seen this Guardians lineup once already this season, and though he was all over the place, issuing five walks, he still only allowed one hit and didn’t surrender a run across six innings. He threw just eight changeups, all to left-handed batters, and primarily stuck with his heater, knuckle curve, and slider.
Cleveland never really mustered opportunities against Cole the deeper into the start he got, and despite his inaccuracy around the zone, they didn’t really make him work either. He stuck with the heater, his knuckle curve, and slider almost exclusively.
With the struggles of the lefties in Cleveland’s lineup all postseason outside of Steven Kwan, namely Josh Naylor who’s mired in the worst slump we’ve seen from him in his time in Cleveland, it’s going to be the right-handed bats who will be counted on to pitch in and produce, primarily Lane Thomas and potentially David Fry should he get the start. The weakness of this lineup is the changeup. Cole doesn’t throw his offspeed to right-handed batters, throwing just four changeups all season to them. Righties have also seen success against Cole’s fastball, posting a .607 slugging percentage with a .268 batting average. Of the balls put in play by right-handed hitters against Cole’s fastball, 14% of them have been barreled, the highest of any of his pitches. Lefties, however, have fared much differently, posting a .146 average and .233 SLG. That 14% barrel rate across balls in play drops to just 4.9% for lefties.
These reverse splits put the usual Guardians lineup a bit at a crossroads. Do you start Will Brennan, a hitter who historically struggles mightily with velocity and rising heaters, or do you start Jhonkensy Noel who whiffs a ton and has struggled mightily for not just this postseason but really since mid-August who also provides more pop from the side of the plate that hitters have fared better against Cole this season? I think you lean Noel.
David Fry struggles against right-handed pitchers compared to his dominance against lefties, namely against cutters, but he’s still slugging over .400 against fastballs and sliders from righties. However, he’s sparsely seen right-handed pitching in bulk until this postseason, and it’s largely because Vogt wants Fry’s bat in the lineup at all times, opting to use Manzardo elsewhere down the order.
That brings me to my next point. Are we at the point where the emotional Manzardo/Naylor talking points following Game One may have reached a point of reason? We just may be. Manzardo outplayed Naylor down the stretch by a great bit, and if you assume it’s only because Manzardo saw right-handed pitching, it’s not. After his September call-up, Manzardo posted a 146 wRC+ against righties, 65 percent better than Naylor’s 81. I understand that Josh will never see a day out of this lineup so long as he’s in a Guardians uniform, but the best chance this team has to win may just be with Kyle Manzardo at first base right now.
On top of that, Manzardo has proven to be a better hitter against fastballs with an induced vertical break of 17 inches or greater, posting a .750 average and 1.500 SLG against them across September while Naylor has hit just .186 with a .333 SLG. Small sample size be damned, Josh Naylor has been among the two worst bats in the lineup all playoff long. A change, while unlikely, may be beneficial against Cole.
It’s been 17 long years since Cleveland bested the Yankees in the postseason, and it’s been three failed attempts since to reclaim that glory. A major turning point in this franchise’s attempt to slay the dragon comes in Game Two. It’s time to see who’s ready to step up and take on that challenge.