How should the Royals handle this bullpen?
Who is in the circle of trust?
Any Royals fan can tell you the team has bullpen issues. Collectively, they have the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Of the seven relievers to make at least 20 appearances this year, only Sam Long has an ERA below four.
But the bullpen is not completely hopeless. Nine teams have a worse ERA from their bullpen than the Royals mark of 4.29, including potential post-season contenders like the Diamondbacks and Pirates. Ten teams have more blown saves from their bullpens, including the Dodgers, Red Sox, Astros, and Rays. Royals relievers have certainly fared much better than last year’s Rangers, who won a title despite a bullpen ERA of 4.77.
Still, the bullpen will need to be carefully managed to get the most out of their limited abilities down the stretch. Let’s discuss how the relievers should be handled, ranking them by level of trustworthiness.
Lucas Erceg
Stats: 3.46 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 27% K rate, 8% BB rate
Trending: Up. He has given up just four runs in his last 16 outings, covering 14 innings (2.57 ERA), with just two walks.
Out pitch: He throws a 98 mph fastball, but opponents are hitting just .067 against his slider with a 32.1 percent whiff rate.
Erceg is the new guy, but he has been the most dependable all year, featuring a blazing fastball and a nearly unhittable slider. The Royals have talked about him being a future closer, but he is almost certainly the best reliever right now. The only question is how exactly to use him. The Royals look like they want to maintain flexibility and use him when most needed - against the best opposing hitters late in games - rather than just save him for a ninth-inning lead that may not come to fruition. That seems like a fine approach, but the Royals will have to find someone to close up shop after him.
Sam Long
Stats: 2.16 ERA, 3.05 FIP 27.5% K rate, 8.8% BB rate
Trending: Up. Since the start of July he has allowed just one run in ten outings.
Out pitch: His slider has a 40 percent whiff rate.
Long was brought in as a minor league free agent and wasn’t called up until late May, but has become one of the more trusted relievers in the pen. He has a reverse split - lefties hit him better than righties and he strikes out more righties - so Quatraro should trust him in any situation. Long has had MLB success before - he had a 3.61 ERA in 42 innings with the Giants in 2022, but his strikeout rate is way up since then, so maybe he has figured something out. The Royals should probably ride his hot hand as long as they can and maybe even see if can handle the ninth.
Kris Bubic
Stats: 1.54 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 31.8% K rate, 6.8% BB rate
Trending: Up. Since joining the team in early July, he already has three 1-2-3 innings, more than James McArthur, Chris Stratton, or John Schreiber over that time.
Out pitch: His change up continues to be an unhittable offering, with a 50 percent whiff rate.
The Royals have indicated they want to handle Bubic with kid gloves following his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and only one of his nine outings so far has been in an above-average leverage situation. But his continued success and the struggles of the bullpen may require him to take on a larger role. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher, but his velocity has bumped up in the pen, and he’s done a good job missing bats so far.
Will Smith
Stats: 4.04 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 15.7% K rate, 8.5% BB rate
Trending: Up. After a really rough start, he has a 1.57 ERA in 28 2⁄3 innings over his last 31 games, allowing opponents to hit just .183 over that time.
Out pitch: He throws his slider 41 percent of the time, with a 31 percent whiff rate and an opponent’s average of .172.
After a brutal start, Smith has pitched pretty well, although the Royals have been protecting him. He has pitched in just two above-average pressure games (by Average Leverage Index) since May 8. He has been very good against lefties - they are hitting just .193/.217/.263 against him, ranking as the 22nd-lowest OPS out of 166 relievers with at least 30 games in relief. His velocity is a bit up since the beginning of the season and he is probably ready for some tougher situations, albeit mostly facing lefties, but he has the tenth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball.
Hunter Harvey
Stats: 4.44 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 25.1 % K rate, 7.3% BB rate
Trending: Down. He has given up 16 runs (14 earned) in 13 2/3 innings with 8 walks in his last 15 games, and has given up a run in three of his six outings with the Royals.
Out pitch: His splitter has a 37.7 percent whiff rate, but he does tend to let it get hit with a .268 opponent batting average against it and three of his five home runs allowed have come against the pitch.
Harvey was supposed to bring the heat the Royals needed, but he has had trouble locating, leaving far too many of his 97 mph fastballs up in the zone. He has one of the highest hard-hit rates among all relievers. He has a track record of being a solid reliever the last three seasons, but he probably needs some low-leverage outings to get back on his feet. The Royals will need him to figure things out quickly so he can be the asset they thought they were acquiring for Cayden Wallace and a draft pick.
Angel Zerpa
Stats: 4.17 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 20.3% K rate, 6.0% BB rate
Trending: Down. Zerpa was blown up on Monday, and has now given up 22 hits and 13 runs in 13 innings over his last 14 outings.
Out pitch: Zerpa doesn’t really have an out-pitch, relying mostly on a sinker to get a lot of groundballs.
Zerpa is an aggressive strike-thrower - only seven relievers throw more pitches in the strike zone. But has allowed the second-most contact out of any reliever and he has been barrelled up a lot this year. His 57 percent groundball rate ranks 12th among relievers and he has been unlucky with a .352 BABIP, suggesting that some of these groundballs had eyes. He is also second among all relievers in pitches thrown in the strike zone that were called balls, an issue that came up on Monday against the Red Sox. He doesn’t really have much of a platoon split - lefties are hitting .300 against him - but he’s probably just going through an unlucky/rough stretch and can work out of this soon.
James McArthur
Stats: 5.20 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 16.5% K rate, 4.6% BB rate
Trending: Woof. Since July 10 he has converted just three of five save opportunities, allowing 12 runs in 9 2⁄3 innings with opponents hitting .381/.413/.667 against him in 10 games.
Out pitch: His curve has a 33.9 percent whiff rate, but opponents are hitting .316 against it, so....
McArthur was a nice find last year, but he seems ill-suited for a closer’s role. His strikeout rate is 12th-lowest among all relievers and he is one of three Royals relievers in the bottom 30 of the league in Win Probability Added. He can throw strikes, and his curve can be an asset at times, but he definitely needs to be in some lower leverage situations for awhile, or even demoted to the minors if the Royals have any better options.
Chris Stratton
Stats: 4.40 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 20.7% K rate, 14.1% BB rate
Trending: Down. He has had some good stretches, but has largely struggled all year. Since the start of July, opponents are hitting .311/.407/.578 against him in 12 games.
Out pitch: His curve has the second-most horizontal movement in baseball and has a 31 percent whiff rate, with opponents hitting just .143 against it.
Stratton’s problem has been command. He has the seventh-highest walk rate among relievers and only 12 relievers have generated fewer swings. Almost 30 percent of his pitches have come behind in the count, the highest percentage on the team, and opponents are hitting .324 against him when the batter is ahead in the count. The Royals may be stuck with him, as he has a $4.5 million player option next year, but if he continues to struggle, they may need to eat that if they can find a more reliable arm.
How would you handle the bullpen?