Opening Day: Royals v. Twins

Cole Ragans gets his first Opening Day start

2023 was miserable for Royals fans. Sandwiched between back-to-back championships across the parking lot, the other tenant of Truman Sports Complex lost 106 games, tying a franchise record. It was the third 100-loss season in five seasons, not including 2020.

General Manager J.J. Picollo responded by being as active as a Royals GM has ever been in free agency, adding Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Hunter Renfroe along with overhauling a miserable bullpen. He spent over $110 million, Kansas City’s most since 2016, and the payroll is up $25 million in 2024. Still, outside onlookers view the Royals as a still-rebuilding team, and it’s hard to blame them.

The core is exciting. It has a budding superstar with upside Kansas City hasn’t seen since George Brett in Bobby Witt Jr. That statement isn’t all that hyperbolic, either. It has a diamond-in-the-rough ace in Cole Ragans who not only looks to be Picollo’s biggest slam dunk to date but is getting some action as an AL Cy Young candidate. And it has Vinnie Pasquantino, a high-floor hitter with an upside to be one of the better Royals’ hitters of the 21st century, an admittedly low bar to clear.

Still, the rest of the core – Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez, Michael Massey, Nelson Velasquez, Nick Pratto (eventually), and an aging Salvador Perez – doesn’t look ready to win. That may be true, but like it or not, Kansas City is trying to win games this year, and their active offseason brought expectations with it.

They are reasonable expectations, sure, but Fangraphs projected standings for 2024 have the Royals as a 76-win team. Vegas has Kansas City’s over/under set at 73.5. Nothing suggests the Royals could compete in an underwhelming AL Central, but even an underperforming 70-win season would be a 14-win improvement. Kansas City hasn’t seen a change in wins that dramatic since 2013.

The Royals may just be the odds-on favorite to be Major League Baseball’s most improved team, and that’s not just fanspeak. When asked which team is poised to surprise people in 2024, the Royals were the most popular answer among MLB players. MLB.com writers included Kansas City among its seven most likely teams to see their win totals jump by double digits.

The Royals still look far from a legitimate competitor, but they should be a much better team in 2024 than in 2023. And in a weak division, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that this team plays meaningful games in September. Vinnie Pasquantino is back after missing most of last season with a torn right labrum. Bobby Witt Jr signed a monster 11-year extension in the offseason.

Opening Day is more exciting than it has been since 2017. And while much of that revolves around guys like Vinnie or Bobby or the active offseason, a surprising source of excitement is today’s starting pitcher.

Kansas City’s road to an improved pitching staff actually started last summer, when Picollo dealt Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers for the oft-injured Cole Ragans. The 26-year-old had made nine starts for Texas in two seasons, posting an ERA of 5.32 in 26 appearances. In 2022, his average fastball sat at a tick over 92 MPH. With the Royals, that number jumped to 96.7 MPH after sitting at 96.3 with the Rangers, tied for second among all left-handed starters.

Among 175 pitchers that threw at least 300 four-seamers in 2022-23, nobody had a bigger jump than Ragans’ 4.4 MPH improvement. In fact, he nearly doubled his teammate Carlos Hernandez’s 2.3 MPH improvement, the next closest jump. Ragans has had two Tommy John surgeries, so health will be a concern. But he currently has the 8th-best American League Cy Young odds, an outcome even the most optimistic onlooker could not have envisioned.

He’ll have his hands full, not just with the Twins offense, but the opposing starter. Pablo Lopez gets his second consecutive Opening Day start and is arguably the favorite to win the AL Cy Young along with Corbin Burnes.

Kansas City opens with a roster that doesn’t include Nick Pratto or Drew Waters.

It also includes Nick Loftin thanks to Michael Massey’s lower back strain.

The lineups are in and there aren’t many surprises on the Royals side, minus Massey’s absence. Maikel Garcia is back in the leadoff spot after taking 72 of his 114 starts at leadoff last season. Vinnie is finally back from his shoulder injury and The Captain hits cleanup. Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier make their Royals debuts as well.

On the other side, Minnesota returns much of its 2023 AL Central champion lineup, with old friend Carlos Santana being the only significant change starting at first base.

Here is everything else you need to complete your Opening Day experience.

• What to know about 2024 Royals Opening Day by Max Rieper
• Royals Rundown: Opening Day Extravaganza, with Max Rieper by Jacob-Milham
• Royals Review Roundtable: The 2024 Season featuring Rieper, Jacob-Milham, Matthew LaMar, and Jeremy Greco
• 2024 Royals Season Preview: It’s time to win by Rieper
• How to watch the royals on TV and streaming in 2024 by Rieper

Happy Opening Day!