Opinion: Mets Should Avoid Jeremy Jeffress

Less than one month away from the start of spring training, the New York Mets still have some unfinished business to complete over the next few weeks, which will likely include adding another reliable arm to their bullpen.

Even though the Mets will now be forced to search for another general manager, the offseason doesn’t stop for anyone, meaning team president Sandy Alderson and his staff will be tasked with addressing the club’s remaining needs. While they still need to locate a starting center fielder, it’ll also be very important to acquire one more reliever before pitchers and catchers start reporting to Port St. Lucie next month.

So which relief pitcher should the front office target?

Well, they’ve been heavily focused on reliever Brad Hand – who posted a 2.05 ERA, 1.37 FIP, 33.7% strikeout rate, and a 4.7% walk rate over 22.0 innings last season – throughout this entire winter and it’s certainly possible they could end up acquiring him in the near future. But since the 30-year old hasn’t agreed to a contract as of yet, management has been keeping their options open in free agency and are looking into alternative solutions.

Despite their interest in Hand, who’s now considered the top reliever available on the free-agent market, the Mets have also shown some interest in Jeremy Jeffress this offseason. That being said, they’re not the only organization that’s been drawn to him, as they’re reportedly “at least 10 teams” currently interested in his services, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

The reliever market remains crowded with talent, but one pitcher on a lot of radars is Jeremy Jeffress; per sources, at least 10 teams have some level of interest in the right-hander including Blue Jays, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Nationals.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) January 18, 2021

For the Mets, this isn’t the first time or even the second time they’ve explored the idea of bringing Jeffress to the Big Apple, as they attempted to acquire him from the Milwaukee Brewers back in 2016 and also checked in on him before he signed a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs last winter.

While the 33-year old features 11 seasons of MLB experience and has served as a closer in the past, it’d probably be wise to pass on the right-hander this time around, as his production has declined significantly over the last two seasons. Considering the veteran hurler enjoyed the best statistical performance of his career in 2018, his recent ineffectiveness should be even more concerning and is a perfect example of why he wouldn’t be a fit in New York.

Over his 76 2/3 innings during the 2018 campaign, Jeffress compiled 15 saves, producing a 1.29 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 2.86 xFIP, 29.8% strikeout rate, 29.1% chase rate, 31.0% whiff rate, 9.0% walk rate, 19.9% LD rate, 56.4% GB rate, 23.8% FB rate, and a 1.7 fWAR rating, earning him a trip to the All-Star game.

But over his 75 1/3 innings since then, the former first-round selection has generated nine saves, recording a 3.94 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 4.49 xFIP, 20.1% strikeout rate, 25.0% chase rate, 22.6% whiff rate, 9.3% walk rate, 22.6% LD rate, 50.0% GB rate, 27.4% FB rate, and a 0.5 fWAR rating.

Digging deeper into Jeffress’ recent woes, it appears he’s struggled to perform effectively with his low-80s curveball, along with his mid-90s fastball and sinker. Since he’s relied heavily on all three of these pitches throughout his career, it makes plenty of sense as to why the former Cub has witnessed a major decline regarding his strikeout totals and his ability to induce ground balls over the last couple of seasons.

Starting with his curveball, which has served as his primary strikeout weapon, the Halifax County HS standout has reduced its usage by 5.8% since his All-Star campaign as he’s failed to replicate both its vertical and horizontal movements. Unfortunately, the high-leverage reliever hasn’t been able to correct either of those issues as they’ve gradually worsened over the past two seasons.

Though his breaking ball’s velocity hasn’t been impacted, it has sustained a 3.9-inch decline involving its average inches of drop (averaged 47.1 inches in 2020) and a 1.4-inch decline regarding its average inches of break (averaged 8.3 inches in 2020). In comparison, it averaged 51 inches of drop and 9.7 inches of break during the 2018 campaign.

As a result of this gradual decline, Jeffress’ curveball didn’t create nearly as many swings and misses last season, resulting in a 30.8% strikeout rate (9.5% decrease from 2018), 41.4% whiff rate (1.1% decrease), 16.7% in zone whiff rate (10.2% decrease), 21.2% chase rate (12.9% decrease), and a 15.4% walk rate (12.8% increase).

Moving on to his sinker, which served as his secondary offering in 2018, it hasn’t sustained any major issues involving its movements, although it has endured a concerning drop in velocity over the last two campaigns. After averaging 95.1 mph as an All-Star, his sinking fastball averaged just 93.7 mph in 2019 and declined even further during the following season, dipping down to 93.1 mph.

Failing to increase the velocity on his sinker, opposing hitters didn’t have any issues generating a ton of hard contact against it in 2020, as it allowed the fourth-highest hard-hit rate (58.8%) among all pitchers who faced at least 25 batters. To make matters worse, it also couldn’t entice batters to extend the strike zone nearly as much, which saw its chase rate decline by 9.2% from the 2019 campaign.

Similar to his sinker, Jeffress’ fastball has also endured a gradual decline involving its velocity since 2019, as it averaged 95.5 mph in 2018 and dropped down to just 93.3 mph last season. Even though his heater touched 94 mph at times in 2020, it failed to sustain that speed over an extended period of time and also never hit 95 mph on the radar gun.

Thanks to this decline in velocity, the Virginia native’s four-seamer has been located much lower in the strike zone over the last two seasons, increasing its average inches of drop from 14.7 inches in 2018 to 16.8 inches in 2020. While it has only allowed one home run since 2019, its poor location has provided hitters with plenty of opportunities to create hard contact against it during that span.

Reaching new lows last season, the soft-throwing hurler’s fastball allowed a .406 xAVG, .674 xSLG, .485 xwOBA, 50.0% hard-hit rate, 70.0% LD rate, and a 91.0 mph average exit velocity.

As for his 2018 campaign, the former Brewer’s heater allowed just a .191 xAVG, .351 xSLG, .300 xwOBA, 43.3% hard-hit rate, 19.2% LD rate, along with an 87.4 mph average exit velocity.

Based on these troubling results regarding Jeffress’ repertoire, it seems his best days may be behind him and he probably can’t be relied on to serve as a late-innings reliever moving forward. With that in mind, the Mets would be much better off with someone like Hand, especially since the club’s bullpen is currently lacking a shutdown lefty.

Even if the front office fails to land the former Cleveland closer, it’d still make much more sense to look elsewhere rather than circling back to Jeffress. If all else fails in free agency, they could explore the trade market and potentially address their need in the bullpen through that avenue.

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