Get used to the idea: The Indians are going to trade Corey Kluber for Alex Verdugo

As Christmas approaches, MLB teams will likely pause for a moment before hopefully Hot Stove activity picks up going into the new year. The Indians are at the forefront of most rumor posts, with the most common rumors connected them to the Dodgers and Reds, currently.

Many Indians' fans on Twitter and LGT are stating that accepting anyone less than Bellinger from the Dodgers is cause for a no deal or extreme consternation if there is a deal. I don't see any possibility that the Dodgers will give up a 23 year-old star who has put up 7.6 fWAR in his first two seasons, total, and hit 64 homers,and played center-field and first-base with competency. He is under team control for five more years and hasn't even arbitration age yet.

Corey Kluber is a fantastic pitcher, one of the best in all of baseball. However, his K/9 rate declined by almost 2.5 K's in 2018, his FIP increased 0.5 runs, he allowed the highest percentage of hard-ball hits of his career (36.8%) and his average fasbeall declined by .6 mph. All of these are warning signs that Kluber is 32 year-old pitcher with a lot of miles on his arm. They do not mean he will not be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball for the next two years, but they do mean that his decline has likely begun. How gradual and prolonged that decline will be has yet to be seen.

With all this said, I cannot see any reason the Dodgers would trade a proven major league power hitter under team control for 5 years for Kluber. I can't really see why they would trade such a player for any pitcher, considering that their pitching staff is already strong. If the Indians' Front Office can get Bellinger in a deal for Kluber, they deserve to have statues built outside of Progressive Field. Make it a whole park of statues.

With that said, we all know that the Indians are currently pitting several teams' offers against each other, trying to see which team will offer the best package, and I suspect that Alex Verdugo from the Dodgers is on the table, and the Indians are checking to see if the Reds, Brewers and possibly Yankees can offer anything to equal or surpass what the Dodgers can offer. With that said, let's take a look at Alex Verdugo.

Alex Verdugo - Fangraphs grades
Hit GamePower RawPower Speed Field Throws Future Value
50 / 60 40 / 50 55 / 55 45 / 40 50 / 50 60 / 60 50

Longenhagen/McDaniel note that Verdugo's value has lessened as he's been shifted to the outfield and struggled a bit to find his power stroke. But, he still has a 60 bat, and a great arm. Keith Law notes that a .400 OBP and plus power is on the table for Verdugo, and his swing profile and demonstrated selectivity indicate that it's a decent gamble he will reach one or the other. Verdugo, like Jake Bauers, has also been one of the youngest players at each stage of his development, something the Indians clearly see as valuable.

If the Dodgers offer Verdugo, young catcher like Will Smith or Keibert Ruiz, and a pitcher like Dustin May or Dennis Santana, I'd hope the Indians would make that deal. Two of the three players can help out right away, and both in significant roles, and Smith or Ruiz would be able to help in 2020. I'm also a fan of DJ Peters as a young, power-hitting right-handed outfielder, and I'd accept him as a substitute for Smith or Ruiz. Getting a trade like this would be a huge coup for the Indians Front Office... but without a name like Bellinger, it will be harder for people to see this.

Why trade Kluber at all? He's still projected to put up 4.8 fWAR with a 9.5 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. The Indians can keep Kluber and decimate the Central yet again. The answer is that the Indians have already tipped their hand on their plans. They want to keep the team perpetually in the hunt, they want to give themselves a shot at a World Series title every year. After three years of having the best pitching staff in baseball failed to get them a World Series, they clearly have determined that spreading the talent out around the roster is a better idea than maintaining the richness of talent in the rotation. Yes, I know you can never have too much pitching, but the Indians have four amazing starters WITHOUT Kluber, each capable of pitching 6 strong in a playoff game, and they have pitchers like McKenzie, Salazar and Anderson hanging around with the potential of helping, as well as Plutko capable of providing fifth-starter value. If the Indians can get young, controllable talent who can add major-league value in 2019-2020 and remain with the team for the three years following, pursuing that course of action makes total sense. Sure, it cuts some cost, but the purpose is finding assets that remain under team control for a long period of time, not lining the Dolans' pockets.

The greatest hope that I have in these discussions that the Indians will get an offer of Verdugo, Smith/Ruiz/Peters, and Santana/May and go to the Reds and say, "We'll give you Kluber for Nick Senzel, David Hernandez and a relief pitcher like David Hernandez or Jared Hughes." Nick Senzel, as a right-handed hitter, would fit perfectly on the Indians' roster, and could go to third, where his value would be maximized. Take a look at Senzel's Fangraph grades below:

Hit GamePower RawPower Speed Field Throws Future Value
55 / 70 40 / 55 55 / 55 55 / 55 45/ 55 55 / 55 60