Breaking down NASCAR's playoff picture after Kevin Harvick won the first elimination race

Kevin Harvick won his ninth race of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season Saturday at Bristol Motor Speedway, taking the checkered flag in two of the first three playoff races. All season, Harvick has had the car to beat, and his nine wins are the most he’s had in a single season in his 20-year career.

But the night race at the .533-mile Tennessee short track was also the first elimination event in the 10-race playoffs.

The playoff field started with 16 drivers, but only 12 advanced to the next round and remain eligible for the championship still: Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola, Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch.

After the next three races in the Round of 12, the playoff field will shrink down to eight drivers and then eventually to the final Championship 4, who will compete for a title at Phoenix Raceway in November.

Here’s a breakdown of the current NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture after the first elimination race.

Which drivers enter the Round of 12 playing catch up?

Yes, the Round of 16 just ended, but it’s impossible to not look ahead at the next elimination event in a few weeks. And four drivers start the next round below the upcoming cutoff mark: Almirola, Kyle Busch, Bowyer and Kurt Busch.

Disappointed in his inability to catch and pass Harvick for the late lead at Bristol, Kyle Busch offered a series of short and curt answers during his post-race Zoom press conference. He said he doesn’t feel like his team has the speed to keep up with Harvick and Hamlin.

And when asked how he feels about starting the Round of 12 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, his “home” track, Busch responded without much optimism at this point:

“We’ll be eliminated next round, so don’t care.”

William Byron eliminated before Bristol’s halfway point

William Byron entered the playoffs with a bit of momentum on his side after earning his first Cup Series victory in the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway. But after coming in 21st at Richmond Raceway last weekend, he was just below the top-12 cutoff line.

Bryon started Saturday night’s Bristol race 15th, and he was eliminated from the playoffs during the second stage because of damage to his No. 24 Chevrolet. Running 10th at the time, he rear-ended Christopher Bell in the No. 95 Toyota, and Byron and his spotter, Tab Boyd, put the blame on Joey Gase in the No. 51 Ford.

Calling the playoff-eliminating incident “ridiculous,” Byron explained his perspective on the situation after being cleared by the in-field care center:

“The No. 51 just checked up in the middle of the straightaway and had nowhere to go. And the No. 95 slammed on the brakes to try to not hit him, and I slammed into him because I was on his bumper. So just a terrible situation, but not really sure why that happened or what really transpired for him to stop like that.”

In addition to Byron, Ryan Blaney, Matt DiBenedetto and Cole Custer were eliminated from the playoffs.

Round of 12 opens at Las Vegas and closes at the Roval

This round is not going to be easy with the three upcoming tracks. With only 12 playoff drivers remaining, the next round starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with the South Point 400 on Sunday, Sept. 27 at 7 p.m. ET.

But then the playoffs will head to the Talladega Superspeedway before taking on Charlotte Motor Speedway’s half-oval, half-road course track — or Roval — in the second elimination race. Though very different tracks, both are unpredictable and could create chaos, as well as some real problems for playoff drivers.

(Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

And with the Roval serving as a cutoff race, there’s even more pressure on drivers to have strong performances in the first two races this round.

“It’s not a fun place to be,” Logano said Thursday about the possibility of being on the cutoff bubble at the Roval. The No. 22 Team Penske Ford driver clinched his spot in the Round of 12 in the middle of the Bristol race.

“It’s a stressful place. … You’re gonna have to win at some point, and the pressure is gonna be on one way or another. So you want to try to make the next two races be able to score as many points as possible to position yourself in a good spot, but at some point the pressure is gonna be there. Yeah, I don’t want to have my back against the wall at the Roval. But if it does, it does, and we’ll handle it then.”