NASCAR mailbag: Could Matt Kenseth replace Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Hendrick Motorsports?

Examining NASCAR lack of consistency pertaining to debris cautions, Matt Kenseth’s future with Joe Gibbs Racing and whether he’s a candidate to replace Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Hendrick Motorsports.

Each week SB Nation's NASCAR reporter Jordan Bianchi answers your questions about the latest news and happenings within the sport. If you have a mailbag question, email jordanmbianchi@gmail.com.

I’m tired of these debris cautions that NASCAR has almost every race just so it can get an exciting finish. Either there’s something on the track or there’s not, and it there isn’t then keep the yellow flag tucked away. Doesn’t NASCAR realize it’s losing all credibility with fans or does NASCAR just not care?

--Mike

The main issue pertaining to how and when NASCAR calls for a caution is not about credibility and any perceived attempt to create a stirring finish, but consistency and the lack of it. Witness a garbage bag on the track giving justification to interrupt a race, compared to a race continuing despite an intoxicated fan sitting on top of the catchfence with cars circling at speed.

In the case of a garbage bag on the track, which slowed Sunday’s race for three laps, no one knew the contents of the bag and if something inside could’ve posed a safety risk. Hence, it’s understandable why NASCAR elected to err on the caution.

By this same logic, though, how does the man siting on the fence during the June 4 race at Dover International Speedway not warrant a caution? It’s this lack of consistency that leaves fans aghast, drivers perplexed, and in Tony Stewart’s case, enough provocation to post a tweet critical of what transpired Sunday, where three of the cars he co-owns were caught up in accidents following the debris caution.

Working with its television partners, NASCAR has sought greater transparency in displaying any debris causing a particular yellow flag. Except there are still too many instances where this doesn’t occur -- as was the case with the controversial caution called with 15 laps remaining, which erased Kyle Busch’s sizeable lead and put Kyle Larson in position to win.

Fox made no mention on the broadcast and it wasn’t until Monday morning that a NASCAR official said anything publicly. And if that approach compelled Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who’s not one to take shots at the sanctioning body without cause, to say something, then it’s obvious NASCAR should do more.

I’ve seen a lot talk about Matt Kenseth and how he might be a good fit to replace Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Hendrick Motorsports. 1) Is Kenseth really an option? 2) Why would he be a good fit? 3) Do you think it will happen?

--T.J.

The speculation about Kenseth being a viable candidate to replace Earnhardt has certainly heated up in recent weeks, and the thinking behind it is multi-fold.

Kenseth’s contract with Joe Gibbs Racing is set to expire at the end of the season and the team may be inclined to jettison the veteran to make way for promising young talent Erik Jones. The understanding between JGR and Furniture Row Racing was that the 21-year-old rookie would only be with FRR for a single season before shifting back to Toyota’s flagship organization. With Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Daniel Suarez all locked into contracts, displacing Kenseth is the only way this happens.

As for why Hendrick would select Kenseth over Alex Bowman or William Byron, two in-house options, it’s because Kenseth presents more immediate upside. Although the 45-year-old is oldest active full-time driver, he’s still competitive and capable of regularly contending and winning races, compared to the inevitable growing pains that comes with naming either Bowman, 24, or Byron, 19, as Earnhardt’s successor.

Bowman had flashes when pressed into relief duty last season, yet his track record doesn’t suggest he’s can give Hendrick the kind of performance it expects. Byron is a future superstar and will be in Cup full-time no later than 2019, but he’s also only in his second season competing on the national level. Another full year in Xfinity Series would serve him well.

Ultimately a lot of what Hendrick decides will be dictated by sponsorship. Nationwide has yet to announce whether it will return as anchor sponsor for the No. 88 team, and any potential company that comes aboard is going to want a say in picking the driver.

One realistic scenario is Hendrick signing Kenseth, thereby allowing Byron to continue developing gradually. Then, elevating Bowman where he would replace the underachieving Kasey Kahne as driver of the No. 5 car.

It seems like Joe Gibbs Racing is going to push Matt Kenseth is going to get pushed out. What will happen to him? Will he just be the latest fan favorite to retire or do you think he’ll land a ride with a decent team somewhere?

--Danny

If a snippet in Kenseth’s fan club newsletter is any indication, he isn’t thinking about joining Stewart, Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon and (soon) Earnhardt on the sidelines.

So assuming Kenseth doesn’t retire and JGR does indeed bring Jones back into the fold, there are no shortage of options where Kenseth could land. A look at the current landscape shows Hendrick, FRR, Stewart-Haas Racing, Wood Brothers Racing, Richard Childress Racing and Richard Petty Motorsports will either have or could have openings. Kenseth would be a good fit with any of the teams -- and in many instances, represents an upgrade.

But as noted above, Hendrick and Kenseth is an ideal team-driver pairing. Hendrick is a premier organization with race-winning equipment, and Kenseth even at his advanced age still possesses the skills to give the team a third competitive driver alongside Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott. A win for Hendrick in both the short- and long-term, while providing Kenseth a platform to push off retirement, continue racing at a high level, and choose to walk away at a time he feels best.