Oakland Athletics Prospects: Nick Kurtz debuts with home run

Kurtz and the other draftees made their way to Stockton over the weekend to begin their pro careers

Before jumping into last week’s action, a couple of prospect lists dropped recently with MLB Pipeline updating both their top 100 and team top 30 lists, and ESPN updating its top 100 list. There weren’t any particularly crazy surprises for Pipeline, barring the exclusion of Cheng Zhong-Ao Zhuang. I can understand Pipeline not being particularly high on him as a guy who has struggled with injuries and wasn’t particularly well-known coming into the year, but given what he has done and how he is looked I can’t imagine anyone familiar with the Oakland Athletics system being able to name 30 players in it better than him. Kiley McDaniel had the more interesting of the two lists, with of course the three guys you would expect in the top 100 along with Max Muncy and Colby Thomas coming in at 100 and 101. I’m perhaps slightly higher on Jacob Wilson (33) and a good bit higher on Nick Kurtz (76) but nit-picking individual spots is pretty meaningless in top 100 lists because not much really separates these guys. Luis Morales also comes in at 77 which feels right given his huge ceiling but lack of really having any standout stretches of play this year.

I love this Muncy ranking and I tend to agree with Kiley on this one that Muncy is either a back end top 100 or a borderline just outside of the top 100 player. He may be hard-pressed to win the shortstop job over Jacob Wilson with the A’s, but defensively he has progressed to the point he’s going to be an MLB caliber shortstop. There just aren’t that many shortstop prospects with his glove and power potential floating around, and while there are approach kinks to work out the guy is only 21 years old and handling his own against Triple-A pitching. Take out his stretch right after coming off of the injured list, which seems to be the statistical outlier for his entire season, and he’s striking out 21% of the time and walking 8.5% of the time with (even accounting for a generous home environment) well above-average power production. I’m a bit less sold on Thomas this high — though I do like him — just because the lack of defensive value really stresses his hit tool and approach. However I can also look at the progress he’s made just this year, and projection that forward another year is an MLB-caliber outfielder regardless of defensive home. He currently is 6th in the PCL in isolated power (.291) among hitters with 150+ plate appearances.

Las Vegas Aviators

Record: 59-56, 22-18 2nd half, 2nd in PCL West (3 GB)

Season stats

• Cooper Bowman - 11 G, 54 PA, 0 HR, 9.3% BB, 25.9% K, .292/.358/.333, 81 wRC+
• Joe Boyle - 38 ⅓ IP, 5.63 ERA, 20.4% BB, 37.1% K, 3 HR, 4.48 FIP
• Logan Davidson - 60 G, 231 PA, 6 HR, 7.4% BB, 33.8% K, .279/.346/.452, 95 wRC+
• JT Ginn - 66 ⅓ IP, 5.97 ERA, 9.6% BB, 21.5% K, 9 HR, 5.26 FIP
• Gunnar Hoglund - 11 IP, 4.91 ERA, 6.8% BB, 20.5% K, 1 HR, 4.24 FIP
• Max Muncy - 43 G, 173 PA, 8 HR, 7.5% BB, 23.7% K, .291/.382/.520, 123 wRC+
• Colby Thomas - 42 G, 187 PA, 10 HR, 7.5% BB, 26.2% K, .285/.358/.576, 124 wRC+

Top Performers

I talked about Muncy and Thomas there in the intro but both have been hitting well lately. Thomas of course keeps hitting for power, and despite his strikeouts remaining relatively high he is slowly reducing his chase and swing-and-miss rates. Neither of those two numbers are in the range of what I would consider good, but he doesn’t need to be great at those things so much as just good enough to let his bat speed and raw power shine. He has done that so far and is improving seemingly each passing week. Muncy keeps hitting the ball hard and keeps hitting the ball over the fence, and has quickly re-adjusted and cut back on his whiff rates. He’s still swinging and missing more than league average despite solid strikeout numbers, but like Thomas is moving in the right direction. Muncy has been demolishing any fastballs in the zone, with an average exit velocity of 98.1 mph against fastballs since the start of August, but that’s generally what I’ve come to expect from him. Much of his progress has been being good enough on breaking balls. He’s done a much better job sitting on mistake secondaries in the zone, and while he’s likely to always be a fastball-first hitter it will be important to make sure he does enough damage on secondaries that pitchers have to make good pitches with them to actually get him out. Muncy is still chasing breaking balls at a high rate and that’s going to be something that major league pitchers test him on very quickly, but now that he’s healthy it’s been impressive to see his acumen for learning and improving at an advanced level of the sport.

It was about time for Joe Boyle to get another big league chance, as even though he clearly has a long way to go there wasn’t much absolutely mowing through Triple-A hitters was going to teach him. Prior to being called back to Oakland Boyle’s past six games totaled 52 strikeouts in 26 ²⁄₃ innings, with the 13 walks always being the concerning bit. Gunnar Hoglund put up a couple of solid starts to begin his Double-A career but that last one was awful as his command wasn’t where it has been the past few months and he paid for it dearly by allowing three home runs. Hoglund’s stuff is good enough to fit into the back end of rotation but he simply has to be finer with his pitches as he left far too much over the plate and all three of the home runs he allowed caught the fat part of the zone. I’m inclined to chalk this up as just a blip and one poor outing, because it was probably the worst he has commanded his secondaries since the first month or so of the season. I have a tougher time with projecting JT Ginn, though his last start was one of his better ones. While Hoglund is the type of pitcher who is just good enough at everything to make it work Ginn is the type that feels like he is just a bit short, where nothing he has really misses bats consistently enough to project him to more than a spot starter. I like him more as a bullpen option moving forward, though if his command plays like it did in his most recent start I could be convinced to come off of that judgment.

Midland Rockhounds

Record: 64-46, 24-17 2nd half, 1st TL South (+1 G)

Season stats

• Mason Barnett - 9 ⅓ IP, 1.93 ERA, 7.5% BB, 27.5% K, 1 HR, 3.74 FIP
• Henry Bolte - 30 G, 132 PA, 4 HR, 9.8% BB, 39.4% K, .212/.295/.373, 90 wRC+
• Brayan Buelvas - 18 G, 73 PA, 1 HR, 8.2% BB, 28.8% K, .231/.301/.338, 83 wRC+
• Denzel Clarke - 89 G, 359 PA, 11 HR, 7.2% BB, 31.8% K, .270/.334/.472, 125 wRC+
• Ryan Cusick - 42 ⅔ IP, 5.27 ERA, 13.2% BB, 23.2% K, 4 HR, 4.76 FIP
• James Gonzalez - 79 ⅓ IP, 3.52 ERA, 8.5% BB, 20.4% K, 3 HR, 3.36 FIP
• Brennan Milone - 100 G, 428 PA, 10 HR, 10.3% BB, 21.3% K, .280/.360/.432, 124 wRC+
• Jack Perkins - 44 IP, 4.30 ERA, 12.8% BB, 32.8% K, 2 HR, 3.22 FIP
• Daniel Susac - 68 G, 286 PA, 7 HR, 4.2% BB, 26.2% K, .278/.318/.432, 109 wRC+
• Cheng Zhong-Ao Zhuang - 9 IP, 0.00 ERA, 8.8% BB, 17.6% K, 3.09 FIP

Top Performers

The Rockhounds have the two highest-ceiling outfielders in Oakland’s system and both are going in somewhat different directions at the moment. Henry Bolte’s occasional big strikeout games have become all too frequent over the past few weeks, and in his past 16 games he has 30 strikeouts in 66 plate appearances. I did expect some struggles from him advancing to a new level but this is a deeper slump than we’ve seen from him all year, though again it’s important to remember that he’s 20 years old and even getting to Double-A this quickly is an outlier. Fortunately unlike early in the year when he struggled in Lansing he is still hitting for power and driving pitches when they are thrown in his hot zones, so once he starts to figure out the pitching at this level he should see a similar progression to Denzel Clarke. Speaking of Denzel Clarke, after that brutal start to the season he’s done everything we could have hoped from him and more, quickly cutting down on his strikeouts and hitting for power. The only lingering question was around his low walk rates and whether he could improve his approach on secondaries, and lately he has been on a walk binge with ten of them (to only nine strikeouts) and a .444 on base percentage over his past 10 games. It’s been awhile since he’s gone deep — no home runs since July 9th — but is still hitting the ball hard and has a lot of extra base hits. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him still spend the rest of the year in Double-A, though with the endings of the minor league seasons staggered I think it would be worth challenging him and sending him to Vegas to close out the year. He’s responded so well to every one of his flaws this season, and while Triple-A pitchers will expose more of the flaws he needs to combat it’s clear that Clarke has been able to handle everything at Double-A and should be able to take any potential struggles in stride.

Mason Barnett has looked the part since coming over at the deadline, mixing his pitches well and putting up a couple of solid starts for the Rockhounds. Barnett has gotten stronger as the year has gone on at Double-A, and hasn’t allowed more than one earned run over his past five starts, and given his age he’s another that probably should be pushed to Triple-A to close out the year. He’s one of the better pitchers in the system with regards to his ceiling, but needs to clean up his command quickly in order to stick beyond a back-end guy. The same could be said for Jack Perkins, who I’m higher on than Barnett but has shown much worse command this year. He’s been throwing more strikes in recent weeks, but it’s been more a case of feeding his fastball into the zone and relying on the quality of his pitches to do the work. That’s worked for him — 34 strikeouts over his past 20 innings — and he has enough life and velocity to survive in the zone even at Triple-A. The major leagues will eventually be a bigger challenge though, where he’ll need to be better at spotting his fastball up to maximize his pitch mix. Overall though I’m a huge fan of Perkins and he should make a run at the starting rotation next season. I also believe he should finish the year out in Triple-A though at some point we have to consider how to actually get all of these guys playing time. I would prioritize Perkins here given the time missed to injury and being a year older than Barnett, but both are fairly similar overall.

Lansing Lugnuts

Record: 51-58, 19-25 2nd half, 5th in MWL East, (7.5 GB)

Season stats

• Cole Conn - 39 G, 149 PA, 3 HR, 10.7% BB, 20.1% K, .209/.295/.318, 79 wRC+
• Jared Dickey - 12 G, 53 PA, 0 HR, 9.4% BB, 13.2% K, .304/.396/.348, 123 wRC+
• Ryan Lasko - 22 G, 99 PA, 1 HR, 13.1% BB, 24.2% K, .238/.354/.333, 106 wRC+
• Luis Morales - 65 ⅓ IP, 3.58 ERA, 9.9% BB, 25.5% K, 5 HR, 3.67 FIP
• Kade Morris - 14 IP, 4.50 ERA, 6.9% BB, 12.1% K, 0 HR, 3.72 FIP
• Nate Nankil - 12 G, 52 PA, 0 HR, 7.7% BB, 26.9% K, .333/.423/.400, 123 wRC+
• Will Simpson - 99 G, 432 PA, 14 HR, 15.3% BB, 24.8% K, .275/.384/.481, 146 wRC+

Top Performers

Ryan Lasko has been so much better after being promoted to High-A, hitting the ball more often and still showing a good feel for the strike zone. It all felt a bit gloomy while he was in Stockton as it felt like he struggled to find the barrel too often given his age and experience, but he’s hitting the ball hard and the next step is going to be getting a bit more lift to tap into the power more often. It hasn’t been a great season for him but if he can carry some momentum into the offseason he looks like he could turn things around and start tapping into his potential. Offensively there isn’t really a lot of starter-caliber talents on this team outside of Lasko. Will Simpson keeps hitting and had a .981 OPS last week, but given his age and how long he’s been at the level now he should be hitting this well. I like the progression he’s made in terms of home run power, something he’ll need to stick as a likely first baseman. Jared Dickey has done a good job in terms of strike zone recognition and making contact, but I haven’t seen enough hard contact from him to feel like he’s capable of starting as a corner outfielder. The contact rates are nice but it’s too often not ideal contact quality and his swing and swing path are so inconsistent he may struggle even on a jump to Double-A.

Luis Morales finally had a bit of a hiccup on the mound. He went all of July and the first start in August without allowing more than one earned run, but his command gave him trouble on Saturday and he just never really fully settled into the game. His stuff looks great though and he’s managed to stay healthy after his late start, and with what he’s done lately it’s hard to be concerned about one poor start. He’s still missing a ton of bats and he seems to have slowed things down a bit on the mound, with the biggest issue being his troubles adjusting when things aren’t working for him. When he’s having a bad day he often has the stuff to still survive — four runs in 4 ¹⁄₃ innings isn’t a complete meltdown by any means — but it’s often a runaway train effect where bad innings turn into awful innings and he doesn’t do well at righting the ship and tightening things up. Kade Morris started his Lugnuts career off with two seven inning outings in a row, and despite not missing a lot of bats he is able to fill up the zone and get weak contact more often than most pitchers. The problem with this approach can pop up in games like Wednesday night, when the contact is a bit harder and falls a bit more often and suddenly Morris has allowed ten runs over three innings. Morris’s raw stuff is too good to be missing so few bats, but he has the problems of one:telegraphing pitches with his release point, and two: filling the zone rather than commanding the edges of it. He’s a bit more hittable than he should be but as he refines the command that should smooth out a bit.

Stockton Ports

Record: 39-48, 13-31 2nd half, 4th in CAL North, 13 GB

Season stats

• Steven Echavarria - 51 ⅔ IP, 6.27 ERA, 13.0% BB, 20.6% K, 4 HR, 5.22 FIP
• Clark Elliott - 43 G, 186 PA, 5 HR, 13.4% BB, 20.4% K, .278/.418/.472, 141 wRC+
• Rodney Green - 3 G, 14 PA, 0 HR, 21.4% BB, 35.7% K, .182/.357/.182, 70 wRC+
• Joshua Kuroda-Grauer - 2 G, 10 PA, 0 HR, 20.0% K, 10.0% BB, .375/.500/.375, 154 wRC+
• Nick Kurtz - 3 G, 14 PA, 1 HR, 21.4% BB, 28.6% K, .364/.500/.727, 215 wRC+
• Myles Naylor - 97 G, 421 PA, 10 HR, 16.4% BB, 33.0% K, .198/.330/.332, 84 wRC+
• Tommy White - 3 G, 15 PA, 0 HR, 6.7% BB, 13.3% K, .231/.333/.231, 67 wRC+

Top Performers

The Ports suddenly have become a ton of fun, with all of the highly drafted hitters heading to Stockton last week to start their professional careers. There isn’t going to be much meaningful information to gather from talented college guys playing in Single-A, but having them in action is still fun and refreshing after a long season of watching the same players. Nick Kurtz went deep in his first game, absolutely demolishing a fastball over the plate to left field. Kurtz and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer both had a good trio of games, while Tommy White and Rodney Green didn’t quite have the same success in their opening series. That quartet will make for a nightly watch down in Stockton, and Clark Elliott will get a few more eyes on him as well. Elliott took a couple of weeks to get going but has been outstanding since and Oakland quickly needs to bump him back to High-A to get tested a bit. He’s already tripled his home run total from last season, and though it has come with more strikeouts it’s good to see him hitting the ball harder. However this is a 23 year old in his second trip to Single-A so it’s another situation where he has to prove he can actually do it at a higher level.

It’s been such an up and down season for Myles Naylor, and lately it’s been a bit more on the downslide as he’s watched his strikeouts tick up over the past couple of weeks. When Naylor’s mechanics are in line and he’s able to make contact he really hits the ball hard, there is just going to be a long period of time where the A’s will have to work on his swing to cover some of those holes. I believe in his talent still but I was hoping he would end out the season a bit stronger than he’s been lately. To talk more about pitching blow ups Steven Echavarria had an awful day on Saturday, allowing ten runs and not even getting out of the second inning. Like Morales, he’s been so good lately that this is just a bump in the road that I’m going to move on from as long as he doesn’t make it a pattern, as it’s the worst he’s commanded his fastball since those first few starts in May.

DSL A’s

Game Results

Record: 21-29, 7th in DSL West, 16 GB

Season Stats

• Erick Matos - 34 ⅓ IP, 3.15 ERA, 18.3% BB, 18.3% K, 0 HR, 4.90 FIP
• Edgar Montero - 50 G, 210 PA, 3 HR, 20.5% BB, 22.9% K, .232/.388/.372, 115 wRC+
• Jose Ramos - 46 G, 180 PA, 0 HR, 19.4% BB, 31.7% K .142/.318/.199, 63 wRC+

The DSL A’s have been on a slide lately with no one on either side of the ball really putting up good games. Erick Matos hasn’t pitched since August 5th, leaving a pretty big hole in the rotation that the team has struggled in filling. After being one of the top signings for Oakland this offseason it’s not fun to see Jose Ramos struggling this much, as he hasn’t been able to improve the awful strikeout rates he’s dealt with all season. He’s missed a couple of games lately as well, and since the start of July has gone 8-83 at the plate. Edgar Montero is the one that has made this team really interesting, though he is on a little three game hitless stretch. Montero continues to hit well and draw walks, and lately has started to run freer on the bases. Montero had six stolen bases in the first two months, but in nine August games already is 5-5 on his stolen base attempts.