Athletics Prospects: Denzel Clarke continues hot hitting

My thoughts on Clarke’s great second half, Luis Morales, and the rest of Oakland’s system

It’s been a bit since I’ve checked in here as I’ve been on draft duty, but a lot has happened in the Oakland Athletics system in the past couple of weeks. Important names like Max Muncy and Darell Hernaiz are finally getting healthy and back into actions, while the promotions into Midland’s outfield have renewed excitement at Double-A. Luis Morales may have struggled in his last outing, but he has pitched well for the last couple of months and showed a lot of promise in the Futures Game.

Las Vegas Aviators

Record: 47-49, 10-11 2nd half, 4th in PCL West (6 GB)

Season stats

• Joe Boyle - 22 ⅔ IP, 8.74 ERA, 24.3% BB, 28.8% K, 3 HR, 6.49 FIP
• Logan Davidson - 45 G, 177 PA, 5 HR, 6.8% BB, 35.6% K, .281/.345/.469, 98 wRC+
• JT Ginn - 47 IP, 7.28 ERA, 11.1% BB, 22.7% K, 9 HR, 6.18 FIP
• Darell Hernaiz - 8 G, 29 PA, 1 HR, 10.3% BB, 29.7% K, .280/.345/.480, 98 wRC+
• Max Muncy - 25 G, 99 PA, 3 HR, 8.1% BB, 24.2% K, .274/.374/.452, 108 wRC+
• Colby Thomas - 25 G, 108 PA, 5 HR, 7.4% BB, 26.9% K, .273/.361/.505, 113 wRC+
• Jacob Wilson - 19 G, 90 PA, 4 HR, 7.8% BB, 3.3% K, .398/.444/.639, 168 wRC+

Top Performers

Jacob Wilson may have had a few bad games right before he was called up, but regardless there remains no doubt in my mind that he deserved that and is the best shortstop A’s have at the moment. That was an exciting debut for me to see happen as I’m very, very high on Wilson and how I think he profiles at the major leagues, and I’m furious that it had to end with him being injured. It’s been a frustrating year all around for the A’s and injuries, but thankfully there are a handful of guys starting to make their ways back.

Darell Hernaiz is the big name for me to watch, and I’m excited to see him back in action. He hasn’t made a ton of impact in his few rehab games, but he is making contact at a very high rate and is 6-13 so far. Hernaiz has been expanding the zone a little bit more than you might want to see, which has always been Hernaiz’s biggest offensive flaw, though I’m hesitant to nitpick a handful of games during a rehab stint. Max Muncy is finally back healthy, and I am very intrigued to see how he finished out the season. He had a home run in his first game back in Las Vegas, but so far he has been swinging and missing much more than you want to see. Again, this is small samples and right after coming off of the injured list so I’m not at all surprised to see him struggling a bit to make contact and get his timing back. When he has made contact it’s been hard contact, and he hasn’t been chasing wildly or anything so I think he’s in a good spot in his progression and should get back to normal once he starts hitting the ball more consistently.

Now for Colby Thomas there have been plenty of good aspects to his performance along with a lot of reasons to be concerned. I wasn’t expecting Thomas to come in and immediately dominate Triple-A, so the issues are kind of in line with what we saw at Double-A just to the increased degree you see when guys make these level jumps. When Thomas really barrels the ball he hits it hard, and the raw power jumps off of the page. The problem is he’s had both a combination of chasing, whiffing, and making less-than-ideal contact. The third problem is something that I think sorts itself out, so the first two are what we look at. I think his tendency to chase is really the problem here and he really hasn’t been getting much better as offspeed out of the zone has caused him loads of trouble. Still, we’re seeing his contact rates increase across the board, so I don’t think this rate of swing-and-miss in the zone is going to continue as he makes the necessary adjustments. The reason Thomas’s overall contact quality has been weaker than expected is because he’s not making good contact on fastballs in the zone. This is not something I expect to be a long-term concern for him at all, even though the length of his swing can contribute to that, and even with those issues he’s been fairly good at Triple-A. The zone recognition does need to improve though, or else it will ultimately limit his ceiling to more of a fourth outfielder/platoon type bat.

As for Joe Boyle, thankfully it has been a lot better of late. He is starting to throw strikes again and when he does Triple-A hitters really have no chance of doing anything with him. Boyle has 14 strikeouts to two walks over his past two appearances, and if he continues to find the zone at this rate he should get another look in the major leagues soon. It wouldn’t be awful to let him keep getting time in Triple-A to develop, but I don’t really see what he’s going to learn at Triple-A that he couldn’t in the major leagues. His raw stuff is obviously elite and it’s just about getting him to make competitive pitches, which he has been doing.

Midland Rockhounds

Record: 55-36, 15-7 2nd half, 1st TL South, (+2 G)

Season stats

• Henry Bolte - 14 G, 66 PA, 1 HR, 10.6% BB, 31.8% K, .241/.333/.328, 92 wRC+
• Cooper Bowman - 75 G, 346 PA, 9 HR, 12.1% BB, 21.1% K, .270/.367/.433, 125 wRC+
• Brayan Buelvas - 3 G, 13 PA, 0 HR, 7.7% BB, 15.4% K, .167/.231/.167, 18 wRC+
• Denzel Clarke - 72 G, 290 PA, 11 HR, 5.9% BB, 33.4% K, .258/.314/.468, 114 wRC+
• Ryan Cusick - 33 ⅓ IP, 6.21 ERA, 13.9% BB, 23.8% K, 4 HR, 5.13 FIP
• James Gonzalez - 60 IP, 3.90 ERA, 8.6% BB, 21.9% K, 2 HR, 3.25 FIP
• Gunnar Hoglund - 98 ⅔ IP, 3.01 ERA, 6.9% BB, 23.4% K, 12 HR, 4.20 FIP
• Brennan Milone - 82 G, 351 PA, 9 HR, 10.5% BB, 22.5% K, .268/.353/.418, 117 wRC+
• Jack Perkins - 23 ⅔ IP, 4.18 ERA, 16.4% BB, 27.3% K, 0 HR, 3.86 FIP
• Royber Salinas - 36 ⅔ IP, 3.68 ERA, 15.8% BB, 25.5% K, 5 HR, 5.40 FIP
• Daniel Susac - 56 G, 236 PA, 6 HR, 4.7% BB, 25.8% K, .297/.339/.461, 121 wRC+

Top Performers

Denzel Clarke has fully put to bed the concerns he raised to start the season, as he is in the midst of perhaps the best stretch of his career. It seems like it only took him staying healthy, and the strikeout rates have dipped to a point that feels safe for him. It’s not all in the clear as he needs to make better swing decisions, but it seems like everything he puts his bat on is a hard hit ball. It’s been a couple of weeks since we’ve seen a home run, but just Tuesday he hit an opposite field fly ball right off of the top of the wall near the 393 sign and raced around for a triple. Clarke’s swing path flattening out isn’t ideal and he has seen a dramatic dip in fly ball rate this year, but given the amount of power he is hitting for I don’t see a major reason to think it will limit him there. It’s been a great turnaround to the season, and I think he should head into 2025 confident in getting his first taste of Triple-A.

Daniel Susac is one that has also looked a ton better lately, increasing both his contact and walk rates significantly after some mechanical tweaks. The past couple of weeks haven’t seen the break out power we saw towards the beginning of July, but given where his swing is and the frequency he is making good contact now I’m inclined to believe better things are coming his way. I’m interested to see what the ultimate plan is with Cooper Bowman. He’s been incredibly hot of late, and added two home runs yesterday after I compiled stats which raised his wRC+ seven points, and given his age and complete handle of Double-A pitching needs a chance to get seasoning at Triple-A. I consider him more of a utility player type overall, but the Athletics have a lot off middle infield depth at the upper minor leagues they’ll need to clear out and I wonder if Bowman will be one they try to leverage in a trade because I really don’t see him getting the playing time to maximize his value here.

After an impressive start on the 6th Jack Perkins has settled back down and is struggling to command his pitches, and over his last couple of outings has as many walks as strikeouts. His command is a bit worse this year than even last year, though coming off of as much missed time as he has I’m not surprised to see inconsistency. His arsenal looks lively and I’m excited about the potential here, and even if he continues to have some trouble down the stretch I think he’s one worth pushing to Triple-A or even giving a shot in spring training to next year. One interesting swap is that Ryan Cusick has come out of the bullpen the last two times, though both were multi-inning outings. I think given the injuries he can’t seem to avoid and the regression of late with his command after he looked better to start the year that’s probably his best path. He flashed a great power breaker for a strikeout in the ninth inning last night, and I think if he focuses on that along with his fastball it’s a two-pitch mix that can work in a big league bullpen.

As expected there has been a bit of an adjustment period for Henry Bolte, but I’m encouraged to see that the strikeouts haven’t been a major issue for him. His approach has translated up a level well enough, though Double-A pitchers have done a better job than High-A pitchers did of getting the ball in the upper half of the zone where Bolte struggles. However Bolte is terrorizing any pitch that gets left down in the zone, hitting hard line drives to all fields, and just needs to get back to lifting the ball a bit more like he did in Lansing to start to see the power output come back around. Brayan Buelvas only has a handful of games since his much-needed promotion, and I guess it’s not a surprise to see him struggle to make contact. After spending three years in High-A Buelvas is probably going to take some time to adjust to a new level and it’s going to be a matter of whether he can handle breaking balls of this quality well enough to push through and get to the next.

Lansing Lugnuts

Record: 44-46, 12-13 2nd half, 4th in MWL East, (3 GB)

Season stats

• Euribiel Angeles - 81 G, 347 PA, 6 HR, 4.3% BB, 11.0% K, .280/.311/.402, 101 wRC+
• Brayan Buelvas - 80 G, 361 PA, 7 HR, 12.7% BB, 22.2% K, .272/.368/.443, 132 wRC+
• Cole Conn - 29 G, 108 PA, 3 HR, 11.1% BB, 20.4% K, .250/.333/.402, 109 wRC+
• Will Johnston - 48 ⅓ IP, 5.40 ERA, 8.7% BB, 30.9% K, 6 HR, 3.67 FIP
• Ryan Lasko - 4 G, 18 PA, 0 HR, 11.1% BB, 22.2% K, .250/.333/.313, 91 wRC+
• Luis Morales - 47 ⅓ IP, 3.80 ERA, 9.7% BB, 24.6% K, 5 HR, 4.08 FIP
• Will Simpson - 82 G, 357 PA, 11 HR, 15.7% BB, 25.8% K, .269/.384/.471, 143 wRC+
• Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang - 29 IP, 2.79 ERA, 2.7% BB, 23.6% K, 2 HR, 2.88 FIP

Top Performers

I have some thoughts here about Luis Morales, and some of the data we got to see in the Futures Game helps reinforce a bit of a theory with him and why he gets hit harder than he should. One is sequencing — at this level sequencing often isn’t the focus so much as making sure certain pitches are being executed so players can get predictable. Still, a guy with his quality of pitches shouldn’t be getting hit as hard as he does. Morales’s inconsistency with his release is obvious and is a huge reason his pitches struggle to maintain a consistent shape and location. However there is also a separation between his release the different pitches, most notably where he tends to release his breaking balls higher, and in talking to professional hitters it’s something that they feel they can pick up on regularly enough to take advantage of it. There are times Morales can match release points — the general ranges overlap considerably — but they average out far enough away where a three inch difference in release doesn’t sound like much but for people trained to pick up on that it can tip location. This, if it is the problem, is something that’s fairly easy to fix and his tendency to throw pitches in poor locations also feeds his issues, but it could be a significant factor in why his performance doesn’t quite match his input arsenal. Even saying all of this could be considered a bit nitpicky when you look at a 21 year old who despite missing significant time due to injury has a 3.05 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 27.1% strikeout rate, and the swing-and-miss rates to match over the past two months of play.

Without Bolte and Buelvas there isn’t quite as much to like about this Lansing offense, especially with Euribiel Angeles really struggling lately. However Cole Conn seems to have adjusted well with a home run and a ton of good contact over the past couple of weeks. Conn has been a really good find for the A’s and a guy whose skillset should translate as he reaches the upper levels. High-A has exposed some of the aggression we saw in college that limited his on base ceiling, but the progression in power and contact he’s showing has him trending towards being a backup/third catcher which is a great outcome from a third round pick. The biggest change was the promotion of Ryan Lasko, who probably didn’t deserve it over Nate Nankil but high picks are always going to get developmental priority. Lasko hasn’t been nearly as bad lately and has held his own in his few games Lansing — including an excellent game on Tuesday — but I’m still skeptical given how bad the swing-and-miss has been for him.

Stockton Ports

Record: 35-54, 9-16 2nd half, 3rd in CAL North, 10 GB

Season stats

• Steven Echavarria - 39 ⅔ IP, 5.67 ERA, 11.1% BB, 20.7% K, 1 HR, 4.31 FIP
• Clark Elliott - 28 G, 122 PA, 3 HR, 14.8% BB, 22.1% K, .261/.417/.435, 135 wRC+
• Ryan Lasko - 82 G, 390 PA, 4 HR, 15.1% BB, 26.4% K, .225/.359/.322, 95 wRC+
• Nate Nankil - 78 G, 339 PA, 9 HR, 13.0% BB, 18.0% K, .287/.4-7/.459, 137 wRC+
• Myles Naylor - 80 G, 349 PA, 9 HR, 17.2% BB, 33.0% K, .206/.344/.345, 92 wRC+

Top Performers

Joseph Rodriguez was promoted from the complex league to start this week off, and even though it’s only been two games it’s hard to complain about him having a home run in each. Rodriguez has in these two games shown an extreme level of patience, sometimes taking all the way until he gets to two strikes in the count, and this is something you will see some organizations emphasize to try to help young players watch the ball in and train them to recognize spin. That seems like it is going to be needed as Rodriguez struggled with spin in these two games, but also showed some seriously easy raw power. His bat path can get inconsistent and very lengthy, but when he is direct to the ball it jumps off of his bat and both of his home runs went to the opposite field.

Clark Elliot has been extremely productive lately as well, though I am colored with quite a bit of skepticism here. Given his age and the fact he is repeating Single-A I expect him to hit well, and even so the strikeouts have been higher than I would want to see. Still it is progress over last year and if he can go up to High-A and hit well I would be much more willing to put the disappointment of the prior two seasons behind. I talked about Nankil and thinking he deserves a call up to Lansing, and I honestly probably would have pushed Elliott up there before Lasko too, but it seems like Oakland really likes Lasko as well. Nankil has done nothing but hit and hit and hit all season and has thoroughly been an impressive player. Because he was a younger college draftee he’s also still 21, so I can see why the A’s would be willing to be a bit more patient with him. Of the three though, yes he is more limited than Lasko in terms of a ceiling but he’s just been far better all season and is plenty ready for High-A.

Steven Echavarria has not allowed more than one earned run in any start since June 18th, and over these five parts has largely thrown plenty of strikes and been able to get swing and miss. Last night’s start was his worst in a long time (even though he did only allow one run) as he walked more batters than he struck out in what was his highest walk total of the year. Bad games happen so I’m not particularly worried here — I’ve been very impressed by the progress Echavarria has made in locating his fastball from the first time he pitched to now and it’s worth zooming out when he has days like yesterday.

ACL Athletics

Record: 22-36, 5th in ACL East, 16.5 GB

Season Stats

• Camilo Hernandez - 28 ⅓ IP, 3.18 ERA, 10.7% BB, 27.3% K, 0 HR, 3.77 FIP
• German Ortiz - 46 G, 205 PA, 2 HR, 15.6% BB, 18.0% K, .292/.417/.399, 119 wRC+
• Carlos Pacheco - 46 G, 175 PA, 3 HR, 11.4% BB, 24.6% K, .254/.393/.406, 111 wRC+
• Joseph Rodriguez - 20 G, 77 PA, 4 HR, 18.2% BB, 37.7% K, .274/.416/.597, 148 wRC+

Top Performers

Today is the last day of the complex league season, and maybe that’s not the worst thing as it’s been kind of rough down there. There have been some interesting things — Max Muncy hitting two home runs in his rehab — but there hasn’t been many standouts on the roster lately. The exception is Carlos Pacheco, who after a slow start to the season has gone off down the stretch. Over the past couple of weeks he has an OPS north of 1.000, cutting down a bit on the strikeouts and hitting for power as well. Pacheco is one who may not quite be ready for full season ball, but I’m a fan of pushing guys and challenging them and he is one that could be worth challenging over the final month.

DSL A’s

Record: 16-17, 57th in DSL West, 9 GB

Season Stats

• Erick Matos - 26 ⅓ IP, 3.08 ERA, 18.5% BB, 18.5% K, 0 HR, 5.06 FIP
• Edgar Montero - 35 G, 154 PA, 2 HR, 20.8% BB, 20.8% K, .242/.399/.400, 122 wRC+
• Jose Ramos - 34 G, 144 PA, 0 HR, 19.4% BB, 31.3% K .142/.315/.204, 61 wRC+
• Oliver Sirotti - 8 ⅓ IP, 4.32 ERA, 11.6% BB, 32.6% K, 1 HR, 4.36 FIP
• Franco Zabaleta - 23 ⅓ IP, 5.01 ERA, 10.4% BB, 22.6% K, 0 HR, 3.62 FIP

There was a bit of a lull there for Erick Matos, but he has put up a couple of great performances recently with seven scoreless innings and seven strikeouts over his past two outings. Matos has struggled to avoid walks, which is typical of these tall, teenage pitchers, but gets outs at a higher rate than anyone else on the team. As for the hitters Jose Ramos has been absolutely awful. Fortunately he has more walks than strikeouts over the past couple of weeks and his inflated walk rates have helped him maintain a reasonable on base percentage, but he hasn’t had many extra base hits to talk about at all this year and is 1-22 over the past two weeks. Edgar Montero on the other hand looks like he should be ready to take on the complex stateside next year fairly easily, and has drawn many more walks than he has strikeouts recently. He has pretty much done well in every category all season hitting for both power and drawing walks, and so far has proven he could be worth the huge investment the A’s gave him this winter.