Game 55, Athletics at Mariners
Logan Gilbert vs. James Kaprielian, 1:10pm
The M’s swept the Texas Rangers, and now face a better, though beatable, team. As I’ve said several times already, the M’s have shown an admirable ability to beat the teams they should beat – they’re better than, say, the Orioles, and they’ve won many of those series (Note: principle not valid vs. Detroit). They’ve struggled with teams like Houston and LA, but the entire sport struggles with those teams. When the M’s have really collapsed, they’ve done it comprehensively, and the obvious tell is that they start losing to the bad teams, which is very frustrating until the realization dawns that the M’s are a bad team, too. This has been the lesson of years like 2010, and the realization can actually be helpful, as it reduces the sting of each loss.
All of that to say that the M’s have fashioned themselves – through two months – into a modern baseball rarity: a truly mediocre/average team. The league seems bifurcated between great teams and “rebuilds” and while there are quite a few teams near the M’s in terms of winning percentage, they’re clearly faking it until they make it. The Astros are a few games ahead of the M’s, but they’re a good team who’s going through a rough patch. They’re not as good as they used to be, by any stretch, but they’re still able to crank out decent pitchers. The *Yankees* are kind of in the M’s neighborhood, but this is even more of a mirage. The Yanks have an amazing line-up that’s simply not quite clicking yet, and their pitching has been legitimately good. The M’s, still self-identifying as in some pre-contending purgatory where they want to show improvement but point to a timeline as a reason to hold off on acquiring more really good players, aren’t like the Yankees at all.
It gets tougher with teams like the Blue Jays, closer in both approach and record to the M’s, but even there, the differences are clear. The Jays’ big core prospects are now in the bigs, and have gotten over some of their adjustment periods (the one Jarred Kelenic’s still in, for example). They’re clearly attempting to contend, and can point to the free agency pitching acquisitions to prove it. It’s not going poorly, per se, but they’re in a rough division. Cleveland may be the closest comparison, though again, they’re built around pitching, and have seen what few hitting prospects they’ve either developed or acquired in trade scuffle. And despite all of that, they’re contending anyway, and the idea that they COULD contend despite not really trying has been a key component of THEIR messaging to fans. It’s a different situation, even if it leads to some of the same short-term strategies.
I think I’ve been clear that the M’s could’ve really helped themselves and their process by being a bit more aggressive on the FA market, or on the trade market when teams like the Cubs have decided to sell off vets. They will *certainly* need to be more aggressive this coming off-season. I’m skeptical about many parts of this rebuild, but I have to say that if the M’s are able to maintain this level of play, the season will be a success according to the M’s own stated strategy. Ideally, if they’re able to maintain a ~.500 level of play, they’ll do so for reasons other than a freakishly timely-though-bad offense or solid bullpen management by Scott Servais. They should ideally show us something that influences what types of players they can be aggressive over in free agency. Does Logan Gilbert figure it out? Are Dunn/Sheffield more consistently good? Whither JP Crawford? What do you do with Haniger? There’s a lot left to learn about this team, and I’m still thankful that they don’t make learning completely awful to actually watch, the way they did in 2010 or 2015.
1: Kelenic, LF
2: Lewis, CF
3: Seager, 3B
4: France, 1B
5: Crawford, SS
6: Fraley, RF
7: Godoy, C
8: Nottingham, DH
9: Walton, 2B
SP: Gilbert
Jake Fraley’s back, as you can see. The M’s optioned Eric Campbell back to Tacoma.
James Kaprielian had his best start in the majors against Seattle his last time out. Will the M’s have better AB’s against him, having just seen him a few days ago? Seems like it’d help, but it didn’t really hurt Mike Foltynewicz, and, if anything, it seemed to help John Means. I know I bang on about this all the time, but the M’s batters remain dead last in MLB with a BABIP of .250 (that’s come up in the past week!), and their pitchers are below average with a BABIP-allowed of .279. I’m not sure if this is just park, just noise, or a fascinating interplay between park and the team’s baseball ops people figuring something out, but hits are hard to get in T-Mobile. That’s not always great for the Mariners, but it has been a lifeline to a rotation that’s sometimes struggled, especially on the road.
Tacoma lost a tough one in Reno, 7-6. They took a 6-2 lead to the bottom of the 9th, but gave up 5 to lose in walk-off fashion. The R’s got HRs from Dillon Thomas, Cal Raleigh, and Luis Torrens. The R’s have hit a ton of HRs recently.
Arkansas dropped a pitcher’s duel to Tulsa, 2-1. Tyler Herb was great for the Travs, tossing 7 IP with both runs allowed on 6 H, 2 BB and 5 Ks.
Everett also lost 2-1, this time in the bottom of the ninth to the Vancouver-by-way-of-Hillsboro Canadians. Juan Then tossed 6 scoreless innings giving up just two hits.
Modesto beat Visalia 6-3. Damon Casetta-Stubbs tossed 6 no-hit innings for the Nuts, and Victor Labrada went 1-3 with two walks.