The Definitive Oakland Athletics Offseason Manifesto

There's no shame in being a fan of a low-payroll team, it just means you've got to be okay with the front office's creativity and you've got to be okay with the turnover.

Given that baseball is the 3rd most popular sport in America, and the Athletics are probably the 25th or 26th most popular team in that sport, this article isn't going to be seen by too many people. It also doesn't help that I'm just a keyboard warrior who has been only sparsely paid for his sports analysis. But the hope is that the following point comes across - I am obsessed with the Oakland Athletics and I am possibly even more obsessed with MLB roster construction. What follows is an unfathomably long deep-dive into how I would attack one of the most important offseasons in A's history. Billy, if you're reading, I'm available for a job interview at the drop of a hat.

All figures referenced below come from Roster Resource's A's payroll info or MLBTR's salary arbitration estimates.

2018 in review

How did a team with the league's lowest payroll rattle off 97 wins in a tough division? It wasn't with starting pitching, the hallmark of previous Moneyball seasons. In fact, the 2018 A's experienced a starter plague of sorts, when by the end of the season they had lost the following pitchers to long-term injuries (breathes in sharply): Opening day starter Kendall Graveman, workhorse/de facto ace Sean Manaea, 3rd starter Jharel Cotton, 4th starter Andrew Triggs, 5th starter Paul Blackburn, uber-prospect AJ Puk, and minor league stud Daniel Gossett. The cobbled-together rotation for the season was a combination of Trevor Cahill, pre-injury Manaea, Edwin Jackson, Brett Anderson, Daniel Mengden, Mike Fiers, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt. They won 97 games.

The remarkable 2018 A's won on the strength of three previously weak facets of the team - infield defense, quality innings from the bullpen, and raw power. The 2015-17 A's struggled mightily in all three of these facets (save for the magnificent Khris Davis) and experienced a one-season turnaround of epic proportions. The infield defense can be attributed to the Gold Glove duo of Matt Chapman and Matt Olson - the best defensive corner infield tandem in recent baseball history. The bullpen was anchored by a 80-grade breakout season from Blake Treinen, who emerged as the league's best high-leverage pitcher. The power was spread evenly throughout a balanced lineup, anchored by Davis and his 48 big flies. The core of this team was (and will continue to be) good enough to make the playoffs on its own, without a need for supplemental pitching additions. But to take the next step, and finally win the final game of the season, the team will need to deal from the gray areas of the team to patch the holes that were exposed in Yankee Stadium.

First things first - internal business

Before re-shaping a roster with the intent of winning a championship, you have to solidify the foundation. The foundation of the organization is its braintrust of Billy Beane and Bob Melvin. Twin extensions through the 2023 season (supposedly the first season the team will play in it's new ballpark) are a must. This signals to the fanbase, current players, and to prospective free agents, that there is a long term plan and a stable leadership group in Oakland. These deals are a must.

Beane is a mythological figure at this point, with not only an Oscar-nominated movie made about him, but an article on Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight that proclaims his actual value to the Athletics franchise is larger than any player, coach, or executive in sports history. Using the average dollar amount spent per win by the average MLB team since Beane took the A's helm in 1997, he's been worth 1.4 billion dollars more than an average GM.

Melvin's résumé is different in that he hasn't changed the game or even been a brilliant tactical manager, but he has one trait that has made him one of the 5 best managers in baseball since joining Oakland in 2011 - unprecedented respect. The ultimate "player's manager" is easily the most respected manager in baseball among those who matter most to a team's success - the athletes. I'll be the first to admit I was ready to pull the plug after 3 straight last place finishes and a 5-10 start to the 2018 season, but I'm back on the Melvin bandwagon and won't be jumping off. A 92-55 finish to the season with a completely decimated pitching staff was only possible because Melvin pulled the strings and instilled irrational confidence in players who had no business carrying that kind of bravado. Turning a locker room of players with the talent level of Mark Canha into players with the confidence level of Mark Canha is enough to warrant an extension on its own. Pay the man.

Big decisions - securing the future while protecting the present

The A's face several dilemmas this offseason, chief among them is the Khris Davis contract situation. He is tied to the team for one final season, at a rate of $18.1M which would be the highest salary in team history by a significant amount. This represents about 1/4th of the total team payroll and is a stunning number for a small-market team. The ideal move here would be to reward Davis for his insane power and remarkable consistency - while still saving some 2019 money to disperse to other areas of the team. I'm proposing a back-loaded four-year, $60M extension for Davis. The breakdown would be $10M in 2019, with $12M in 2020, $18M in 2021 and $20M in 2022. This saves the A's 8.1 million in 2019 and rewards Davis with 42 million guaranteed dollars he didn't have going into the offseason. A win-win for both player and team, and a message sent to the fans - this team is here to stay, and Davis will be mashing 450 foot bombs in The Town for the foreseeable future.

Without a doubt, the A's most valuable assets are Matt Chapman and Matt Olson. They carry impeccable defense, well-above-average offense, and identical contract situations. Both players are looking at making the league-minimum salary ($555,000) in 2019 and 2020, followed by 3 years of team control that I'm going to estimate at $4M/$7M/$12M for Olson and $6M/$12M/$20M for Chapman. None of that money is guaranteed, though - it's highly likely that they earn that money, but a career-altering injury would see that money dry up. A goodwill gesture to the team's young core and to the city of Oakland would be to cement these young men as the pillars of the team (along with Davis). I'm suggesting a contract extension that buys 2 years of each player's free agent years and secures their long term future.

For Chapman, the team's best player, I would offer a 6 year, $90M extension that kicks in for the 2020 season, and runs through the 2025 season. The breakdown would be $555K in 2019, $5M in 2020, $8M in 2021, $17M in 2022, and $20M each in the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons.

For Olson, who is immensely valuable but plays a less crucial position, I would offer a 6 year, $75M extension that also kicks in for the 2020 season. The breakdown would be $555K in 2019, $5M in 2020, $8M in 2021, and $15.5M each in the 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons.

These moves are no-brainers if the players accept. They save $8 million for the 2019 season, and lock down the core of the team to a franchise that suddenly is willing to do the right thing for the players who brought it back to prominence.

Phew, that was awesome. A's baseball is back!! Oh, wait, we can't spend like that without trimming some costs.....

Ah, reality. Giving out $225M in guaranteed contracts is not something the A's do. In this case, I can see it happening if there are significant reductions in 2019 operating costs. I have a flurry of moves lined up to save money and ensure that the team does not lose any quality.

The following players, who are arbitration eligible in 2019, will not be offered contracts and will be released:

SP Mike Fiers - owed $9.7M for 2019. Fiers is a nice pitcher who had a career year in 2018, but is not someone I would pay 10 million dollars, even if the team had that kind of money to spend. A homer-prone pitcher in the era of the dinger.

RP Fernando Rodney - owed $4.25M for 2019. The A's should exercise their 2019 buyout option and save $4M.

SP Kendall Graveman - owed $2.5M for 2019. Easy choice, Graveman is out for the year with a torn UCL and was not an MLB caliber player when healthy in 2018.

RP Cory Gearrin - owed $2.4M for 2019. The slowest pitcher (in terms of time between pitches) was agonizing to watch in his brief time in Oakland.

RP Liam Hendriks - owed $2.1M for 2019. He redeemed himself as an opener for the latter half of the 2018 season, but is not worth the price tag.

RP Chris Hatcher and OF Jake Smolinksi were due $2.4M and $900K respectively, but have already been released.

This totals $24M removed from the 2019 payroll sheet, which combined with the $8.1M saved by deferring the big money in the Davis, Chapman and Olson extensions means the A's have secured their future while slashing costs for the present. There's more work to be done, however. The team needs to build a supporting cast for the 2019 season that is championship caliber while also limiting the costs for the supporting cast in the 2020-2025 seasons when the Davis/Chapman/Olson extensions start to get expensive. Here are a few no-brainers, and a few out-of-the-box ideas.

The no-brainers

The following players will be tendered contracts in 2019 at their pre-determined arbitration/pre-arb/contract rate:

OF Stephen Piscotty - $7.3M

RP Blake Treinen - $5.8M

RP Yusmeiro Petit - $5.5M

SP Sean Manaea - $3.8M

OF Mark Canha - $2.1M

SP Chris Bassitt - $1.6M

RP Ryan Buchter - $1.3M

C Josh Phegley - $1.2M

RP Ryan Dull - $900K

SP Jesus Luzardo, SP Daniel Mengden, SP Frankie Montas, SP AJ Puk, SP Jharel Cotton, SP Paul Blackburn, SP Andrew Triggs, SP Daniel Gossett, RP Lou Trivino, RP Emilio Pagan, RP JB Wendelken, C Sean Murphy, 1B Matt Olson, 2B Franklin Barreto, SS Jorge Mateo, 3B Matt Chapman, UT Chad Pinder, OF Ramon Laureano, OF Dustin Fowler, OF Nick Martini and OF Boog Powell are all under contract for the 2019 season at the league minimum salary of $555K.

The outgoing free agents

In this exercise, I'm letting Brett Anderson, Jeurys Familia, Shawn Kelley, and Matt Joyce go as free agents (all are expected to leave the team after the conclusion of the World Series). The difficult decisions lie elsewhere, where I'm making the tough decision to move on from Jonathan Lucroy and Jed Lowrie. I think both can contribute to the 2019 team and going forward, especially Lowrie, but their best baseball is behind them and they are both looking for multi-year deals in the neighborhood of $10M per year. The A's just can't give that money to players at the end of their careers. The only other free agents are Edwin Jackson and Trevor Cahill, each of whom I would offer free agent deals in the neighborhood of one year, $3M. I'd guess one accepts and the other gets a better offer. Meaning the only free agent to return in 2019 will be a veteran innings-eater at the back of the rotation. I'll say Jackson since he was the most reliable and least injured of the free agent pitchers.

One big change - to save some money and look to the future

Most would advise against letting Jed Lowrie go, and I think almost everyone would say letting your entire starting middle infield leave is not advisable. I'm going to go ahead and say that the offensive and defensive value of Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, and Chad Pinder at a combined cost of $1.5M per season is close enough to the value of Marcus Semien and Jed Lowrie at an estimated $15M per year to warrant a change. Semien's salary for 2019 will be roughly $7M and that number will balloon to $10M in 2020. I think a free agent deal for Lowrie would be about the same, 2 years, $18M-20M total. The A's can save about $32M over the next two seasons by letting Lowrie walk and trading Semien. There will be a drop in offense from the middle infield in the short term, but I think the short term defense and long term offense improves at both positions with the installation of Barreto and Mateo. A Semien trade should net a quality starting pitching prospect who is ready to contribute in 2019 since his advanced stats suggest he is a league average shortstop with a slightly above average bat for the position. Let's call the player acquired in this deal Pitcher X - a young pitcher who has 6 years of team control and makes the league minimum the next three years.

Alright, that's a wrap on the internal decisions, now it's time to take a step back and look at what we have before we add.

Here's the projected roster as of now, taking my moves into account.

Starting Pitchers

Jesus Luzardo, AJ Puk, Jharel Cotton, Edwin Jackson, Daniel Mengden, Pitcher X, Paul Blackburn, Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt, Daniel Gossett, Sean Manaea

Relief Pitchers

Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino, Yusmeiro Petit, Ryan Buchter, JB Wendelken, Emilio Pagan, Ryan Dull

Infielders

Josh Phegley, Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Franklin Barreto, Jorge Mateo, Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman

Outfielders

Ramon Laureano, Stephen Piscotty, Dustin Fowler, Mark Canha, Nick Martini, Boog Powell

Designated Hitter

Khris Davis

THAT is a lot of young players. But it's also a roster that costs an estimated $49.66M ($40.78M in guaranteed deals, $8.8M in deals for league-minimum players, and the $1.25M still owed to Brandon Moss and Fernando Rodney). That figure is a paltry sum by MLB standards, and leaves even the bare-bones A's with about $25M to spend on the 2019 season. This roster clearly lacks proven MLB starting pitching, a proven MLB starting catcher, and has a Jed Lowrie sized hole in the middle of the order. Order of business: first things first, sign a proven starter. Second, find a catcher that can hold down the fort for half the season until Sean Murphy is ready to take over the primary catching duties. Finally, acquire an impact bat to lessen the load on Laureano, Chapman, Davis, Olson and Piscotty and lengthen the lineup.

Free agent signings

Sign SP Charlie Morton to a backloaded two year, $25M deal ($7M in 2019, $18M in 2020). When looking at the free agent options for this offseason, there is a lack of "stuff." I think the A's need pitchers with "plus-stuff" and high upside. Soft-tossing, crafty pitchers can be effective during the regular season in small doses but are often exposed in big moments. Morton was impeccable in 2018 and had the 4th-highest average fastball velocity among starters. The perfect A's pitcher to go two times through the order and throw gas before handing it to the pen.

Sign SP Garrett Richards to a one year, $5M deal. The A's need pitchers with ace upside, and Richards still has that despite numerous injuries.

Sign C Kurt Suzuki to a one year, $2M deal. (Brian McCann and Matt Wieters are also good options at a similar price)

Sign OF Michael Brantley to a three year, $48M deal ($10M in 2019, $18M in 2020, $20M in 2021).

These deals add roughly $25M to the 2019 payroll, bringing the total to $74.66M, a fair price that's actually a hair under what the A's are expected to start the season with. You've added 4 former All-Stars, a team leader behind the dish, a top 25 outfielder in the game, a gas-throwing starter, and a flier on a pitcher who I've always thought was underrated. This sets the Opening Day roster as such:

CF Laureano

3B Chapman

LF Brantley

DH Davis

1B Olson

RF Piscotty

SS Pinder

2B Barreto

C Suzuki

The backup position players would start as Phegley, Mateo, Martini, and Canha. Eventually, players like Sean Murphy and Dustin Fowler will get some action as the season wears on.

SP - Morton, Richards, Jackson, Mendgen, Montas to start the season. This could be entirely different two months into the year, as impact prospects make their debuts and budding stars return from injury. I'd expect Jesus Luzardo, AJ Puk, Jharel Cotton, Sean Manaea, the famed Pitcher X (acquired in the Semien deal), and James Kaprelian to all make at least a handful of starts before the year is up. This rotation is patchwork, but I think it has a huge jump in talent from 2018 and has the potential to be a strength of the team if just one or two prospects take the reigns like Sonny Gray did in 2013.

RP - Treinen, Trivino, Petit, Wendelken, Buchter, Pagan, Dull. I think this is a slightly above average bullpen on the whole, but it can be supplemented with 1) the starters who miss out on the rotation, 2) the minor league depth pitchers like Josh Lucas and Carlos Ramirez, and 3) late-season additions. The A's pen was lights-out before they added Familia, Rodney and Kelley. Barring a long-term Treinen injury, the pen will be successful.

In summary

Alright, I kept the team's 2019 payroll under $75 million. I signed Bob Melvin, Billy Beane, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson to long term deals. I took a huge risk in re-shaping the A's middle infield to be more athletic and less proven at the plate. I brought in an All-Star left fielder to solidify that position and relegate Canha/Fowler/Martini to the bench. The starting rotation will have few holdovers from the 2018 team, and will feature a hodgepodge of 35+ year olds and budding superstar 20-somethings.

Let's look at where this thing could blow up. It's an extremely risky strategy to guarantee Davis, Olson, Chapman, Morton, and Brantley tens of millions of dollars in the 2020-2025 seasons when the team has a small market budget and no certainty about their facilities. Even huge-payroll teams like the Giants, Phillies, and Tigers have recently destroyed several seasons by heaping massive contracts onto underserving or aging players and paid the price.

By handing enormous deals to the likes of Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Mark Melancon, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, and the aging Buster Posey, the Giants have decimated their farm system and have no financial leeway to succeed. They've thrown away the 2017-2020 seasons with their reckless spending. Similarly, the Tigers handcuffed themselves to the aging and injured Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder, and Jordan Zimmerman and saw an early-2010s juggernaut fade into irrelevance. The 2012-2017 Phillies story is almost too scary to write, as the team of the late 2000s completely imploded and played awful baseball while spending hundreds of millions.

I'm taking the risk that the A's could go down this same road because I just don't see the value of Chapman or Olson going down because of their defensive prowess. They could be traded for assets and salary relief at any time if the situation got too dire. The Davis deal is a bigger risk, in that he only has one skill but it's the best in the game. He is so consistent that I just can't see him having a Ryan Howard/other Chris Davis type drop in production that turns his contract into an albatross. The Brantley deal is highly unlikely. Billy Beane will look at his numbers and think he can get that kind of production from a Canha/Fowler/Martini/Pinder platoon. But I think this team needs a left handed bat who can contribute every day, and he has the bat and the glove to be the piece that takes the A's to new heights.

I'm also making a huge bet on the A's farm system. When the team enters its hypothetical new stadium in 2023 it'll have big money Chapman and Olson deals already on the books. Even with a new stadium, the A's will always be a mid-level payroll team at best. I'm banking on the likes of Austin Beck, Kyler Murray, Lazaro Armentaros, Sean Murphy, AJ Puk, Jesus Luzardo, and James Kaprelian to contribute significantly to the team as young players. I think those players, if combined with franchise players like Chapman, Olson, Piscotty, Davis, etc., can form a core that wins a World Series. It's on the A's minor league coaches to develop these immense talents.

This is unequivocally the biggest A's offseason of all time. The team has a core of players who rose through the minors together as champions, has a marketing team ready to announce a new stadium site and prove they actually are Rooted In Oakland, and a braintrust in Beane and Melvin that have done absolutely everything short of winning a title. The time is now to put all the pieces together. Extensions. Shovels in the ground at Howard Terminal. Call-ups for the uber-prospects. The 2018-2023 seasons have all the potential in the world to be the 3rd Golden Era of Oakland baseball. Get it done, Dave Kaval. Get it done, John Fisher. Get it done, Billy Beane. Let's play ball.