Brendan McKay: Long-term Pitcher or Hitter?

First of all, I should give this disclaimer that I am not an avid follower of the Tampa Bay Rays at the major league level. Not to say that I don’t try to catch some games on MLB.tv around the schedule of the Oakland Athletics, the team in which I profess my fandom. However, the Tampa Bay Rays have one of the more interesting farm systems, and a lot of different guys that are worth following. If you are reading this, hopefully by now you know that in the 2017 MLB Draft, the Rays added another guy worth talking about, and he is perhaps the epitome of interesting.

With the 4th pick, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Brendan McKay 1B/LHP out of the University of Louisville. Tampa Bay then went on to give McKay a signing bonus that was a hair over seven million dollars, which just so happens to be the largest signing bonus in the current system of draft spending. Being from the state of Kentucky and a fan of the University of Louisville, I’ve seen the kid play a lot. The purpose of this piece isn’t to talk about McKay and how good of a player he is (note: he’s really good) but to talk more about where he fits.

Let’s lead with a quote from Rob Metzler, Tampa Bay’s director of amateur scouting, who was stated that Tampa Bay feels that McKay has the ability to "impact a major league roster on the mound, in the batter’s box and defensively at first base." It has already been confirmed that McKay will get the ability to develop both as a hitter and as a pitcher, but eventually Tampa Bay will have to choose the way they want to go. At the plate, McKay transformed as a hitter in 2017. In 2015 and 2016, he was a great hitter at the plate, hitting over .300 each season with an OBP right around .415 during his freshman and sophomore years, which is very good in a conference like the ACC. Well, 2017 featured an evolved Brendan McKay at the plate, and one that should have Rays fans very excited about his future prospects at the position. The biggest concern about McKay’s professional prospects as a hitter after his first two seasons at Louisville was that he would have to hit for more power as he is defensively limited to first base. Fortunately, the plus raw power was seemingly turned into more game power as McKay busted out a cool .341/.457/.659 line with 18 home runs and 57 RBI. In other words, he was a beast at the plate. His swing is so smooth and the easy loft makes the power projections easy to understand, especially having already put together a season like the one he did in 2017. Limiting himself to 39 strikeouts in 223 at bats, or roughly 17.5% K-rate was a nice part of his game as well. Interestingly enough, McKay was not the same hitter at the plate whenever he was on the mound with splits that speak for themselves, but luckily playing in the American League, that stat is irrelevant for the Rays. At the plate, it’s hard to ask for much more out of McKay.

Tampa Bay has said they will let McKay dabble with pitching as well. Before we get into what McKay’s approach on the mound, the story has to be told that he ended up being left handed because he was trying to copy others, who were right handed, in a mirror when he was younger. Not exactly the typical way of deciding which arm one was going to throw a baseball with. Anyway, back to McKay. Instead of trying to sound like a professional scout, I’m going to let Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs lead prospect analyst, talk about McKay: "Sturdily built and athletic lefty with a good arm action and repeatable delivery. McKay commands his low-90s fastball to both sides of the plate and has a mature ability to locate his fastball and future above average curveball to various effective locales. Arm action portends changeup projection (it already flashes at least average) and he's working on a cutter, but his velo has been down recently." The last part of Longenhagen’s write-up was a concern for McKay as we entered the final evaluation days of the draft, because he looked a bit fatigued from a long college season on the mound. However, McKay’s ability to command his fastball to all parts of the plate and have plus secondary pitches helped him turn in his best season to date on the mound. In 109 innings, McKay delivered a 11-3 record with a 2.56 ERA, but perhaps the most impressive part of his campaign was a 146:35 K:BB ratio and the sizzling 12.06 K/9. McKay has undeniable talent on the mound, but he did not look like the same pitcher in a few of his later starts in the year. All pitchers have bad outings and perhaps fatigue was a factor, but it is worth noting.

So after doing a rundown on both McKay’s hitting and pitching approaches, strengths, and weaknesses, it would seem that McKay should no doubt start McKay out as a first baseman in his first assignment in Hudson Valley. We discussed that he showed some flashes of fatigue at the end of the collegiate season, so it would make a lot of sense to give McKay the opportunity to play every day at first base and be in the lineup. If the Rays decide to use McKay on the mound, it surely will be in short outings and probably be limited in appearances. But what about long term? I see McKay better off as a key cog in a lineup, somewhere in the 3, 4, 5, or perhaps 6 spot in a major league lineup. If his approach at the plate translates to the professional level, he has the potential to be a major catalyst in the heart of a playoff team’s lineup. And even though he will be limited to first base, he is considered to be average to above average at fielding the position long-term. However, perhaps his arm could still be useful for the Rays long term. It is no secret that team’s bullpens today are more worked than ever before, and I could envision McKay being able to give a team a quality 30-50IP over the course of a season. Having a player essentially be an extra bullpen arm would be a tremendous addition to any team, although that would require having him continue his development as a two-way player, which means dividing his focus, which may be something that the Rays do not want to do at some point. McKay is one of the more interesting stories not only of this draft but in recent memory, because he was a legitimate top 10 draft prospect as both a pitcher and as a hitter. It is a good problem for the Rays to have to decide which way to go, but ultimately if I were the one making the decision (note: I’m not), I would continue the two way development with the emphasis on him becoming my everyday first baseman and being able to help relieve the pressure off of other bullpen arms.