Kansas City Chiefs face a steep uphill climb to cash in on playoff hopes

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the biggest disappointment so far this NFL season.

Fresh off back-to-back Super Bowl trips, the Chiefs were expected to at least be in the title picture again in 2021 with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes still leading the way. Instead, they find themselves under .500 seven games into the season, and doubt is beginning to mount about not just reaching the big game, but also whether they can even crack the AFC’s seven-team playoff field.

The Chiefs (3-4) are currently on the outside looking in, with two teams in their own division — the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders — holding spots. However, considering how good the Chiefs have been since Mahomes took over in 2018, it’s hard to completely write them off from making a run.

That should provide a little hope for a large portion of the betting public. At Tipico Sportsbook, 49 percent of all Super Bowl futures placed have Kansas City lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

The over/under on how many wins the Chiefs finish with is still at 9.5 on Tipico, with longer odds on the over at -170. The under can be had at +135. Odds of -200 that they make the playoffs are still better than the +150 they don’t, and better than the Raiders at -110, even with a 5-2 record. 

For those who still believe in the Chiefs, there may be no better time than now to place bets on them for maximum returns. But their remaining schedule against teams with a combined .612 winning percentage casts a shadow on how far they can go.

The Chiefs already have four losses and play seven of their final 10 games against teams that are .500 or better. Two of the other three games are against the division rival Denver Broncos, games you can hardly assume as wins. If they are going to make a playoff run, it has to start with Monday’s game against the 2-5 New York Giants.

Any optimism behind the Chiefs’ ability to turn things around stems from a disbelief that an offense that has been one of the league’s best in recent years hasn’t covered for the team’s defensive shortcomings. However disjointed the offense has looked at times, it still ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, which measures efficiency by comparing each play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Only seven teams average more points than the Chiefs this season.

Where the offense has gotten in trouble, however, is with turnovers, where the Chiefs have a league-worst 17, five more than any other team. Mahomes’ nine interceptions is already the second-most of his career, three short of his career-high. It’s likely a result of him compensating for the team’s lack of playmakers outside of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and a defense that has forced him to play from behind.

That defense, easily the team’s biggest issue, ranks 31st in DVOA. It’s a bottom-five unit in yards and points allowed per game, and tied for last in sacks while giving up a 30th-ranked 8.6 yards per pass attempt despite blitzing at a top-six rate.

The Chiefs have +550 odds to reach the Super Bowl, still third-shortest behind just the Buffalo Bills (+230) and Baltimore Ravens (+500), but it’s an uphill battle at this point. Before anyone can think about that, Kansas City has to make it through the NFL’s toughest remaining strength of schedule first.