UFC 254 predictions: Who's picking Justin Gaethje to hand Khabib his first loss?

	Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje	Cannonier vs. Whittaker	Harris vs. Volkov	Hawes vs. Malkoun	Murphy vs. Shakirova	Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba
MMA Junkie readers’ consensus picks 2020: 123-79	Gaethje (51%)	Whittaker (63%)	Volkov (62%)	Hawes (59%)	Murphy (69%)	Ankalaev (70%)
Dan Tom @DanTomMMA 2020: 134-68	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Harris	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Farah Hannoun @Farah_Hannoun 2020: 132-70	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Volkov	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Nolan King @mma_kings 2020: 132-70	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Volkov	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Danny Segura @dannyseguratv 2020: 131-71	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Volkov	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Brian Garcia @thegoze 2020: 130-72 2017 Champion	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Harris	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Dave Doyle @davedoylemma 2020: 130-72	Gaethje	Whittaker	Volkov	Malkoun	Murphy	Ankalaev
Mike Bohn @MikeBohnMMA 2020: 128-74 2014 Champion	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Volkov	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Simon Samano @SJSamano 2020: 127-75	Nurmagomedov	Cannonier	Volkov	Hawes	Shakirova	Ankalaev
Simon Head @simonhead 2020: 127-75 2019 Champion*	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Volkov	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 2020: 124-78	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Harris	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Ken Hathaway @kenshathaway 2020: 124-78 2018 Champion	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Harris	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
John Morgan @MMAjunkieJohn 2020: 123-79	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Harris	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Abbey Subhan @kammakaze 2020: 120-82	Nurmagomedov	Whittaker	Volkov	Hawes	Murphy	Ankalaev
Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 2020: 82-120	Gaethje	Cannonier	Harris	Malkoun	Shakirova	Cutelaba

The UFC wraps up its five-event run at “Fight Island” this week with a lightweight title bout at the top of the bill.

UFC 254 takes place Saturday at Flash Forum at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass/ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

In the main event, dominant lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0 MMA, 12-0 UFC) takes on interim champ Justin Gaethje (22-2 MMA, 5-2 UFC) in a title unification bout. Nurmagomedov is a heavy favorite at more than 3-1, and all but two our 14 editors, writers, videographers and radio hosts are picking him to defend his belt for a third time – though our readers, from more than 2,000 votes, are taking Gaethje.

In the co-feature, Jared Cannonier (13-4 MMA, 6-4 UFC) tries to keep his streak going and cement a possible title shot when he meets former middleweight champ Robert Whittaker (21-5 MMA, 12-3 UFC). The fight is a virtual pick’em at the sports books, but Whittaker has a huge 12-2 lead in our picks.

Also on the main card, Walt Harris (13-8 MMA, 6-7 UFC) takes on former Bellator heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov (31-8 MMA, 5-2 UFC). Volkov is nearly a 2-1 favorite, and he’s got a 9-5 edge in the picks.

Whittaker teammate Jacob Malkoun (4-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) makes his promotional debut in a middleweight bout against Phil Hawes (8-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Hawes is a reasonably big favorite, and only two of pickers are taking Malkoun in an upset.

Lauren Murphy (13-4 MMA, 5-4 UFC) will try to stay in the women’s flyweight picture when she takes on promotional newcomer Liliya Shakirova (8-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC). Murphy is more than a 2-1 favorite, and she’s got a big 12-2 lead in the picks.

And to open the main card, Magomed Ankalaev (13-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) and Ion Cutelaba (15-5 MMA, 4-4 UFC) finally get a chance to rematch. Ankalaev is more than a 3-1 favorite, and he’s got our biggest runaway from a picks standpoint at 13-1.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Gaethje (51 percent), Whittaker (63 percent), Volkov (62 percent), Hawes (59 percent), Murphy (69 percent) and Ankalaev (70 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.