6 NFL head coaches most likely to get fired in 2019

In terms of job security, NFL head coach may be one of the worst jobs in the country. The turnover rate since the start of this decade is right at 20% with an average of about six coaches being fired each season. The last time fewer than six coaches were let go was 2010, when, remarkably, only three head coaches were replaced.

In all likelihood, another six coaches will be fired at some point over the next five months. There are already more than six whose seats are plenty hot. So which NFL coaches won’t survive the season? I’ve picked out the six I believe won’t make it past Black Monday with a job. I’ve also added my thoughts on coaches whose jobs are in danger as we head into 2019.

We’ll start with the coach most likely to be fired in my estimation…

1. Doug Marrone, Jaguars

Look at the Jaguars offense and tell me why I should expect this unit to perform at a level good enough to keep the team competitive in2019. The defense could get back to its 2017 form, which would certainly help, but if Marrone’s offense continues to lag behind and hold Jacksonville back, owner Shad Khan would almost be forced to make a move. I’m not so sure the defense will reach the heights of that 2017 season, which would likely result in another double digit-loss season. If that’s the case, both Marrone and Tom Coughlin could be gone.

2. Jay Gruden, Redskins

Gruden has already publicly joked that he’s gone if the Redskins don’t make the playoffs. While I do think that’s mostly true, there is a realistic scenario in which the Redskins miss out on the postseason and Gruden sticks around. And that all falls on the development of Dwayne Haskins. If Haskins plays and shows enough promise, it would be difficult for the front office to separate its first-round quarterback a coach he gets along with. Then again, we’re talking about Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen here. It’s probably playoffs or bust, and this Washington team is not good enough to come out of a competitive NFC East.

3. Ron Rivera, Panthers

I thought last year’s meltdown following a 6-2 start would be enough for new Panthers owner David Tepper to look for his own head coach. That didn’t happen and Rivera was spared. But another let down of a season will likely spell the end of his time Carolina. The Panthers defense has taken a few steps back since the 15-1 Super Bowl season, and that’s Rivera’s specialty. If Carolina doesn’t make the playoffs — which isn’t that big of an “if” considering how loaded the NFC will be — Tepper could jump on the bandwagon of bringing in a young offensive mind.

4. Jason Garrett, Cowboys

Jerry Jones thinks this Cowboys team is good enough to compete for a Super Bowl, and there’s nothing worse for a head coach than an owner with unrealistic expectations. Dallas will have to fight off some statistical regression to even make a playoff push. And with all of the contract drama surrounding the team, it’s easy to envision a scenario where this team is in shambles by November. But even if disaster is avoided, a punchless offense combined with Dallas missing the playoffs should be enough to convince Jerry to finally end the Garrett era and bring in a coach with a more modern approach to offense.

5. Mike Vrabel, Titans

The 2019 season could be the last in what’s been a schizophrenic era in Titans football, which started with the drafting of Marcus Mariota in 2015. Mariota’s time in Tennessee is likely coming to an end. It certainly will come to an end if he’s unable to hold onto his starting job for a full 16-game season. If the Titans have to start over at quarterback, and Tennessee underwhelms once again under Vrabel, it’s easy to see ownership wanting to start fresh with an offensive-minded coach who will groom the next QB of the future.

6. Bill O’Brien, Texans

Having won power struggles with two general managers over the last two offseasons, O’Brien has nobody else to blame if Houston fails to meet expectations in 2019. The Texans are technically under new ownership with Bob McNair’s son Cal stepping into the owner’s box after his father’s death. That’s always a dangerous situation for an incumbent head coach. Especially one with only a single playoff win in five years. The Texans may not need to make the playoffs for O’Brien to save his job, but a sub-500 record might be enough to earn him a pink slip.

On the hot seat but will survive 2019…

Pat Shurmur, Giants

The Giants are better than the public perception of them. And if Daniel Jones shows any amount of promise, Shurmur’s job will be safe regardless of the team’s record. After what Jones has shown during the preseason — which is enough to get Giants fans excited for the future — Shurmur’s best-case scenario might be Eli playing the entire season.

Dan Quinn, Falcons

Quinn nearly made the “most likely to be fired” list. It was between him and Rivera, and here’s what it came down to: I don’t think there’s any way the Panthers and Falcons both make the playoffs — I’m giving the Saints the division — and missing out will likely cost either Quinn or Rivera his job. The Falcons are the better team (slightly) and more likely to make the postseason, in my estimation. I would not argue with anyone who sees it the other way around.

Mike Tomlin, Steelers

A lot would have to go wrong for Tomlin to lose his job. But I’m not ruling out “a lot going wrong” in Pittsburgh this year. Ben Roethlisberger could fall off a cliff. The offensive line may not be as strong with coach Mike Munchak is gone. JuJu Smith-Schuster may fail to live up to expectations now that he’s the No. 1 guy. The defense is always liable to disappoint. The Steelers have won three playoff games in the last seven years. Another missed postseason would make it two in a row and four out of the last eight for Tomlin. I don’t know if he survives that with some fans and prominent members of Steelers nation already calling for his job.

Kyle Shanahan, 49ers

Shanahan has been snake-bitten as 49ers head coach, which has put him under pressure in 2019. With Jimmy Garoppolo back, Shanahan finally has a chance to put together a special offense. But what happens if his inexperienced QB struggles? Will owner Jed York give Shanahan a pass for those first two years? Or will he see Shanahan as a coach who failed to deliver a winner three years in a row?

Matt Patricia, Lions

I’m higher on the Lions than most and believe they’ll finish around .500, but I could certainly envision a scenario where things go south in Detroit. Patricia hasn’t done the best job of managing the locker room and the team could be in rebuild mode if it decides to move on from Matt Stafford in 2020.

Matt LaFleur, Packers

I wanted to include at least one rookie head coach on this list after Steve Wilks didn’t make it past Year 1 in Arizona. If any of the first-year guys gets canned, it will be LaFleur. I don’t know how patient the Packers will be now that Aaron Rodgers is on the downside of his career. And if LaFleur clashes with his star quarterback — not saying it’s likely, but it’s certainly possible — we know who’s winning that power struggle in Green Bay. I think the two will get along just fine, however.