The top 10 quarterbacks in the 2019 NFL Draft
An NFL Draft is as interesting as its quarterback class, so the league is lucky that Kyler Murray picked football over baseball, because without the Heisman Trophy winner this group of passers would have been, well, boring.
That’s not to say there aren’t any talented passers in the class behind Murray. There are. We’ve given a first-round grade to three prospects, including the Oklahoma standout, as well as an early second-round grade to another. There just aren’t any truly transcendent, franchise-altering talents after Murray.
We’ve ranked the 10 best quarterbacks prospects in the 2019 class, grading them on attributes that they’ll need to go on to have successful NFL careers: Accuracy, arm strength, decision making, pocket presence, creativity and potential. The evaluation is based solely on film study.
Let’s get to the rankings…
Question his commitment. Question his size. But you cannot question what Kyler Murray put on tape during his lone season as Oklahoma’s starter. Take the time to study Murray as a prospect, and I don’t know how’d you come away thinking he’s not worthy of a high first-round draft pick. I’d have that take even if Murray wasn’t so electric as a runner.
As good as Murray is in the open field, he’s that much better as a passer. He does it all: He can get through his progressions while keeping his footwork intact.
He can throw the deep ball with pressure in his face — which should alleviate any concerns about his height.
He can snap off deep comebacks from the opposite hash with ease.
And he’s is an accurate passer on the run, going to both his left and right.
Murray is by no means a perfect prospect — he can do a better job of reading coverages pre- and post-snap and some questionable decisions crop up from time to time on his tape — but he’s as good a prospect as we’ve seen in the last five years and the only QB in this class worthy of a top-10 pick.
NFL Comparison: Russell Wilson
Dwayne Haskins is a throwback. A decade of ago, he may have been the top quarterback taken in the draft. But now teams want a more dynamic athlete behind center, and Haskins is far from that. He does, however, have a big arm that’s accurate in the short-to-intermediate passing game, and he’s not afraid of the pocket, where he’ll stand in and deliver against pressure.
Haskins is also one of the smarter quarterbacks in the draft class. By all accounts, he’s a hard worker in the film room and that shows up on tape. And while there were instances where Haskins looked to the sideline for pre-snap instructions, Urban Meyer did afford him quite a bit of freedom to make changes before the snap.
Because of his football intelligence, arm strength and generally impressive accuracy, it’s hard to envision Haskins failing in the NFL. At the same time, it’s difficult to envision him being anything more than a second-tier starter, because he doesn’t have the athleticism, creativity or deep-ball accuracy to really transcend what’s around him.
Haskins could grow more confident in his abilities as he gains more experience — he started only one season at Ohio State — and that may lead to a more fluid playing style; but until he puts in on film, it’s difficult to give him a top-10 grade.
NFL Comparison: Eli Manning
It’s easy to look at Daniel Jones and just assume he’s your typical big, white stiff who is highly regarded because of some vague connection to the Mannings. But give Jones’ film an honest look, and it’s easy to see why NFL scouts are enamored with the Duke product.
His connection with David Cutcliffe, the coach who got Peyton and Eli Manning ready for the pros, has almost become a joke at this point, but it’s easy to see the coach’s influence on Jones. He has the best mechanics of anyone in this class, and, unlike with most college prospects, they don’t fall off when Jones is forced to go from one read to the next.
Unlike the two prospects ahead of him in these rankings, Jones did not enjoy the benefit of throwing to future NFL receivers during his time in school. Duke’s wideouts were as bad as any QB on this list had to deal with, and his offensive line wasn’t much better. Fortunately for the Blue Devils offense, Jones was adept at sliding into open space in the pocket to buy himself just enough time to get a throw off.
Experts have questioned his deep ball accuracy, and his advanced metrics point to high bust potential, but his supporting cast had a lot to do with his underwhelming numbers. Consider this stat from Sports Info Solutions: On fly routes that were thrown at least 20 yards downfield, Jones compiled a completion percentage of just 5.9%. Nobody else on this list had a lower percentage on such throws. But Jones was on-target on 47.1% of those throws — ranking sixth among the quarterbacks ranked here — his receivers just failed to turn them into catches.
By no means is Jones an elite deep-ball passer, but he’s far better at it than the numbers imply. Because of his limitations as a downfield passer and some questionable decision-making, which can lead to some embarrassing interceptions, Jones does not project as much more than an average starting quarterback who will be as good as his offensive system and supporting cast.
NFL Comparison: Kirk Cousins
Will Grier is a self-admitted film junkie, and that’s not just him trying to sell himself to an NFL team. It shows up on film. Grier told reporters at the NFL Combine that he and West Virginia offensive coordinator studied the Patriots offense and borrowed elements of it for their own playbook and you can see the influence with the formation usage and pre-snap motion the Mountaineers use to provide the quarterback with pre-snap clues. And Grier took advantage of those clues, which helped him get rid of the ball in a hurry.
Grier doesn’t have overly impressive arm talent, which will prevent him from going in the first round (we think), but he has enough to make throws to every level of the field with accuracy. You just won’t see any of the highlight-reel throws that get quarterbacks drafted early on Day 1. That may limit his ceiling as a quarterback, but it won’t stop him from developing into a viable, mid-level starter one day. Scouts may be more willing to overlook his average arm if he wasn’t such a gunslinger.
Grier runs into problems when a defense shifts after the snap and his first read isn’t there. He drifts back in the pocket and can get lazy with his footwork. His decision-making also takes a hit the longer he holds onto the ball.
Because he played in an Air Raid scheme, it’s easy to slap the “System QB” label on Grier, but he does offer some ability to produce when things break down. He’s not going to be a threat in the run game by any means, but he will slip out of the pocket and put pressure on the defense.
Grier is a low-floor, low-ceiling prospect who would be a good addition to any locker room. With the right pieces around him, including coaches who understand his strengths and weaknesses as a passer, the West Virginia prospect could give a team top-20 QB production … just don’t expect much more.
NFL Comparison: Jeff Garcia
If NFL teams drafted quarterbacks based on how pretty of a ball they threw, Ryan Finley would be a first-round pick. He doesn’t have the strongest arm in the class — not even close — but he throws a highly catchable ball and has no problem changing the trajectory on his passes based on situation.
The throws aren’t so pretty once you put Finley under pressure, however, which explains why he’ll like have to wait until Day 2 of the draft to hear his name called. That wouldn’t be as much of a problem if Finley was any good at navigating the pocket to avoid pressure, but that, unfortunately, is not the case. While he can make some plays on the move…
… he does not do a good job of sliding in the pocket to find open space. Finley’s lack of movement can expose him to pressured throws and mistakes that he may have avoided if he weren’t such a statue in the pocket.
Making matters even worse, Finley isn’t exactly poised in the face of pressure, which can lead to some moments that are best described as Brandon Weeden-esque.
But did I mention how pretty his throws are? And he made them in a pro-style offense, which will surely excite NFL scouts.
We’ve seen plenty of quarterbacks like Finley enter the league over the last decade. They look just good enough to convince a team they can develop into something special … it just never happens.
NFL Comparison: Ryan Tannehill
I’m fully convinced that Tyree Jackson was designed by those Japanese scientists who created that basketball-shooting robot that makes every shot — only these scientists forgot to properly calibrate his accuracy setting. Calling Jackson a prototype is underselling him. At 6-foot-7, 249 pounds, he towers over your biggest NFL starters. And he can get that big body moving; he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.59 seconds.
So why isn’t Jackson getting any first- or second-round buzz? Well, he’s raw. According to QB trainer Jordan Palmer, who worked with Jackson during the pre-draft phase, the 21-year-old learned his passing mechanics from YouTube videos. That’s not ideal. On top of that, Jackson’s confidence in his arm can get him into trouble. He’ll try to fit passes into the tightest of windows, which may not be the best strategy for a quarterback with accuracy.
But when Jackson puts it all together, it can be a thing of beauty.
That should be enough to convince a coaching staff to take a chance on him. If it pays off, that team will get a special quarterback. If not, they’ll get a decent backup tight end.
NFL Comparison: Paxton Lynch
Drew Lock could very easily make this ranking look silly in a few years. He has enough physical talent to make it as a top-level quarterback, but a lot has to break right — including landing with a good staff that will be patient with his development — for him to get to that point.
He’s a big, strong athlete with a special arm and good deep accuracy, but that’s where his positive traits end. Lock’s problems start with his poor lower-body mechanics. He doesn’t step into throws and those flat-footed heaves lead to overthrows.
Lock’s play-making should be an asset at the next level but it will also get him into trouble, as he doesn’t know when to give up on a play. He’ll drive his coach mad with mistakes.
The Missouri product would be a solid developmental pick, but experts have him going in the first round, which could lead to him being rushed into the lineup and never fully developing.
NFL Comparison: Blake Bortles
I have Minshew as an Early Day 3 pick, but I am fully convinced that he will be an opening day starter at some point during his NFL career.
The intangibles are clearly there. Minshew won an NJCAA national championship before eventually finding his way to Washington State, where he won Pac-12 Player of the Year and nearly lead the Cougars to a College Football Playoff berth. But Minshew offers more than just intangibles. He’s a crafty quarterback who uses pump fakes and his eyes to create throwing lanes for receivers.
He’s got quick feet in the pocket and does a good job of keeping his feet moving as he goes through his progressions. Minshew is a lot like Baker Mayfield in that regard. The two have similar mannerisms in the pocket.
Where Mayfield and Minshew deviate as prospects is in the arm strength department. Last year’s first-overall pick was a special thrower. Minshew is not. His arm strength will be an issue at the next level, and that will likely keep him from going earlier than Day 3. But don’t be surprised if he ends up having a better career than a handful of guys ahead of him on this list. Some team just has to give him a chance.
NFL Comparison: Ryan Fitzpatrick
That Jarrett Stidham isn’t expected to go in the first round is a sign that NFL teams are getting smarter when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks. The Auburn product certainly looks the part. He’s big and athletic and has enough arm strength for the next level. When conditions are ideal — clean pocket, open receivers, etc. — his talent jumps off the tape.
It’s when he’s forced to go to Plan B that things start to go downhill. While Stidham will stand tall in the pocket, when there is pressure to evade his movement is too dramatic and he has a hard time resetting for a throw. Accuracy is also a major concern, particularly on downfield throws.
Put Stidham in a play-action based offense that doesn’t ask the quarterback to make complex reads — a Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan-style scheme would suit him best — and Stidham could develop into a quarterback a team can win with but not one who will carry the team to victories.
NFL Comparison: Blaine Gabbert
The term “System QB” gets tossed around a lot when we discuss college quarterback prospects, but it couldn’t be a more perfect label for Boise State’s Brett Rypien. More than any other quarterback in this class, Rypien took ownership of the Broncos pro-style offense. But it was when the system did not provide obvious answers that his game was exposed.
He’s not going to evade pressure and create plays on his own. The more he was sped up by the rush, the more his decision making faltered. For a smart quarterback, Rypien had too many throws that were just hard to explain from a decision-making standpoint. That’s a sign that the game could move too quickly for him — a problem that won’t go away at the next level. And even when he was making the correct decisions, his lack of arm strength and inconsistent accuracy might let him down.
In an ideal situation, Rypien could be a low-level starter, but he looks like a career backup who will have no trouble finding jobs for the next decade-plus.