What Will Happen in 2026 in Climbing? These Are Our Editors’ Predictions.

In the last 12 months of reporting on the climbing world, we told stories we never imagined would show up at our desks. Of course, there was the usual flurry of firsts straight out of Yosemite—though it certainly seemed like 2025 was a banner year for history made on El Cap. Then there were the weirder moments. Grand announcements of false summits. The death of a man who liked to climb down cliffs hands first. And the rise of climbing socks in parts of East Asia.

But among all the groundbreaking ascents and odd news, we picked up on a few trends in climbing from the past year—as well as some phenomena we’d love to see disappear this year. Based on these trends and how we think they will evolve, we’re putting forth some 2026 predictions.

2025 Trends: The biggest developments and themes in climbing

The kids were more than alright

Youngest to free El Cap in a day (Ethan Morf, 20). First to free climb El Cap’s Triple Direct (5.14a)—and with his dad on belay (Connor Herson, 22). Youngest to free the Nose in a day, and first to flash the route in a day (Will Moss, 20). Youngest to send 5.14b/8c (Veronica Aimee Chik, 9). Youngest to climb a V17 boulder (Samuel Richard, 18). Also a budding trad crusher in a very small package (Reagan Goodwyn, 9). Can we officially call off the concerns about “kids these days”?

The rise of the trad rope solo nerd

Cloaked in mechanical gadgets, neck lanyards, and solitude, more climbers are taking up the dark art of lead rope soloing. Some are even doing so on bold trad lines. This is in large part thanks to one guy: Brent Barghahn, chief tinkerer at Avant Climbing Innovations. This Black Diamond alum founded his niche company in 2024, but many of his products started gaining macro-traction last year. Notably, 20-year-old Will Moss used Barghahn’s gear and guidance to send the hardest trad rope solo of all time: China Doll (5.14a R).

V17? No big deal.

Once upon a time, sending a V17 bloc was a big deal. That time has come to an end. Over a dozen folks sent V17 this year. When Hamish McArthur topped the V17 No One Mourns the Wicked within a single three-hour session in May, the untouchable glory of the grade began to crack. And after an Italian virtuoso proposed a V18, the grade of V17 no longer holds top spot on the grading scale, less than a decade after it came into existence.

Big wins in the East, threats in the West

No we’re not talking about [No One Mourns the] Wicked. We’re talking access. This year, the largest climber-led land acquisition ever went down at Kentucky’s Red River Gorge. In February, climbers gained access to over 700 acres and over 14 miles of cliffline at this sandstone mecca of the Southeast. More wins followed in Massachusetts and in North Carolina, where a 30-year battle to reclaim a historic bouldering area finally ended in victory.

Meanwhile, out West, things were not so rosy. The San Carlos Apache Tribe, Access Fund, and other stakeholders continue to wage a legal and political fight to save Arizona’s iconic Oak Flat bouldering from becoming a massive international copper mine. Mike Lee’s proposed amendment to the “Big, Beautiful Bill” in late June threatened to put at least 17 major climbing areas up for sale, causing an uproar in several outdoor communities before it was defeated. And in Southern Utah, Moe’s Valley is currently awaiting its fate as a housing development looms.

Party in Madagascar

Is it just us, or does it seem like everyone went to Madagascar this past year? Sasha DiGiulian and her partner Mariana Ordoñez became the first to free a route first developed 26 years ago by a Lynn Hill-led team. At the same time, Anna Hazelnutt and Matilda Söderlund, after getting shut down by rusty bolts on Mora Mora, made a valiant attempt on Air Madagascar (5.13d; 400m). A couple months later, Hayden Jamieson, Will Sharp, Cedar Christensen, and Luan Gaeumann headed there to put up a first ascent: Famadihana (5.13a; 300m). While remote walls, long travel times, and aging fixed gear might deter the masses from flocking to Madagascar, it proved a popular destination for unfinished and new ascents in 2025.

Safety third is so 2024

After hype built for months, Edelrid’s newest safety device rapidly sold out. Designed to make falls safer for partners with significant weight differentials, the Edelrid Ohmega wasn’t the only so-called brake assistant to see the light of day this year. German company Raed updated its ZAED Pro and released a new ZAED Mini (reviews coming to Climbing.com next week), while Mammut put the finishing touches on its belay resistor.

Beyond the belay, portable stick clips for runouts, cruxes, and climbers with negative ape indexes also proliferated. As negative stigmas and shame surrounding stick clip usage continue to fade, sport climbers are prioritizing safety with portable stick clips like the Magic Wand and the nascent Small Stick.

Comp climbers took down outdoor records

When not pulling plastic, competition climbers spent their free time breaking records on real rock. World Cup boulderer Pietro Vidi used his dyno experience to make the first repeat of an El Cap route that stood unrepeated for 25 years: Lurking Fear (5.13c). Then, he and Olympian Camila Moroni sent the Pre-Muir Wall (5.13c/d, 35 pitches) and Vidi pulled off a rare ascent of Beth Rodden’s Meltdown (5.14d). Olympic champ and all-time competition GOAT Janja Garnbret made a heroic flash of a possible 5.14d/9a in Arco, Italy. Her fellow Olympian Laura Rogora made the hardest female onsight ever at 5.14c/8c+. And Olympic silver medalist Brooke Raboutou pushed the grade ceiling for women worldwide to 5.15c. We love seeing the inspiring crossover—and wonder what these comp kids will tick in 2026.

Flags on walls drew our attention to politics

After the Department of Government Efficiency slashed budgets and jobs last winter, climbers made their voices heard by hanging upside-down American flags on cliff walls. We reported on Yosemite’s lone locksmith and others who lost their jobs displaying an upside-down flag on El Cap in February. Then we saw climbers rig flags on rock in more places, including Joshua Tree and Smith Rock.

A few months later, climbers hung a trans pride flag on El Cap—and one of them was later fired for the act. In a flag ban dated the day before the trans flag flew, but officially released day after, Yosemite then made even temporary displays of flags within the park illegal. And just a couple months ago, climbers hung the same “Stop the Genocide” banner that originally displayed on El Cap in 2024 at a Colorado crag.  With more U.S. budget cuts and access threats in 2026, the idea of a politics-free zone at the crag will likely feel more and more outdated—and we’ll likely see more creative ways to protest outside.

2025 Ends: What we’d like to leave behind

Alpine drama

We reported on a few controversies involving big peaks this year. Disputes and lies regarding speed records in the Alps. Questionable style and flying accusations related to a winter ascent of Longs Peak. Invented summits for the sake of publicity. Climbers erased from summit footage to engineer a story.

Besides the obvious pressures of sponsors and realities of ego in the mountains, one takeaway is this: Tell the whole story. Be upfront about what happened, own up to possible mistakes or questionable decisions (and why you made them in the first place), and intentionally spark productive conversation, rather than making a bold declaration for the world to poke holes in.

Tariffs causing gear price spikes and shortages

Sadly, tariffs probably aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. But we can all hope that the supply chain situation stabilizes a bit in 2026. In the meantime, resole your shoes and brush up on what climbing gear is safe to buy used.

Rage bait and ropeless enthusiasm

As the official word of the year according to the Oxford Dictionary, rage bait managed to infiltrate climbing, as we discuss at the end of our own “word of the year” story. Within our sport, rage bait is especially troubling when combined with risky pursuits such as free soloing, which regular contributor Owen Clarke examined at length in this summer feature.

While we Climbing editors are all for provocative and meaningful questions, we are less enthused about deliberately provoking dramatic responses by making light of the very real dangers of climbing ropeless. In 2026, we hope a sharper sense of humor prevails as rage bait goes the way of, say, the swami belt.

2026 Predictions: What could happen in climbing this year

The world’s first proposed V18 will get a second ascent and the world’s first 5.16 will emerge

With the first-ever proposed V18 emerging at the end of 2025, we look forward to seeing other boulderers attempt—and either confirm or downgrade—Exodia in Italy. We might also see one or two more possible V18s emerge. On the roped climbing side, we’ve heard Chris Sharma has a 5.16 project, and we’d hardly be surprised if other crushers have secret side lines stretching into 5.16 territory, too. Or perhaps we’ll finally see the first 5.15 trad line in 2026.

Women will climb V17 and 5.15d

From Raboutou’s 5.15c ascent and Katie Lamb becoming (again!) the first woman to send V16, to the first female Yosemite Triple Crown last year, we’ve seen the gender gap progressively shrink by top grade climbed. In fact, 2025 may have been the best year for women in climbing since Lynn Hill freed the Nose in 1993. We expect 2026 to be no different. This year, we bet another grade ceiling will fall, whether that’s a V17, 5.15d, or both.

Climbing gym labor battles will intensify

Don’t be surprised if your gym temporarily closes as workers strike this year. In the past couple years, we’ve witnessed more unions emerging in the gym workforce. About a dozen gyms saw employees unionize in 2025, but only a few have successfully negotiated a contract. This year saw the first-ever routesetter strike in March, with more unions practicing their picket lines in mock strikes.

In 2026, we anticipate the situation will escalate as gyms grow, inflation continues, and questions of income inequality reach deeper into our sport. We predict that gym employees will ask members to freeze their memberships, boycott particular gyms, donate to strike funds, and help pressure owners to boost staff pay and benefits. In short, we think the gym labor situation will intensify before it gets better.

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any weirder: AI deepfake climbing edits

If footage is proof of send, what happens when the footage can be produced by AI? As more climbers look to make a living off the sport and AI video production becomes easier, we won’t be surprised when we see deepfake send clips circulate on Instagram and YouTube. In this world of artificial edits, that means we Climbing editors will place more emphasis on credible eyewitnesses or other evidence to verify sends. But at least for now, the job of climbing photographer will not be so easily snagged by AI, as Irene Yee cleverly pointed out.

Party in Cochamó

As most of us were settling into the holidaze, Conserva Puchegüín announced a massive plan to purchase 328,351 acres of coveted climbing lands in Patagonia. Known as “the Yosemite of South America,” Cochamó boasts world-class big-wall and multi-pitch climbing on granite in central Chile. Maybe eastern Brazil—another mecca for El Cap-sized granite monoliths—will also become a sought-after spot among climbers following Ben Sotero and Chris Deuto’s recent first free ascent.

Aid climbing will come back in style

Chalk it up to the proliferation of inventive gadgets or to our collective nostalgia for the past. With young crushers taking up a style usually dominated by older men and new speed records going down in Yosemite, we think aid climbing will see a resurgence in popularity in 2026.

Yes, aid climbing is niche, but it’s still cool, especially with the business-as-usual vibes aid climbers seem to exude when they whip.

The good news? We’ll likely get a clearer discussion of modern aid grades, although we don’t think someone proposing an A5 means someone has to die first (sorry, Chris Kalous, you’ll never live this down!). The bad news? Free climbers will still be arguing about whether using every little piece of gear “is aid,” from now until the end of time. Some things never change.

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