Flatirons Scrambling: Is Complacency the Greatest Risk?

The Flatirons of Boulder, Colorado offer a high concentration of world-class climbing on high-friction sandstone slabs, with routes over 1,000 feet in length. People have been scrambling these massive slabs without ropes for over 100 years, but this activity has skyrocketed in popularity in recent years. Since 2012, according to Strava data, the Second Flatiron alone has seen over 34,000 recorded ascents by more than 3,000 people. However, not all ascents are recorded on Strava, so this only represents a fraction of the total ascents.

A neighborhood friend took me scrambling in the Flatirons for the first time in 2016. Since then, I have scrambled 94 unique Flatiron routes on 62 different formations. One of the major benefits of going ropeless in the Flatirons is that one can move fast and link multiple routes together in a single outing. During my 765 scrambling outings, I have logged 2,253 routes, comprising 1,106,580 of “on rock” feet. To make Flatiron scrambling more accessible to others, I wrote a Flatirons Scrambling guidebook that was published in 2020.

But over the years, I’ve started to wonder more about the level of risk this activity presents, especially as it grows more popular. What follows is my analysis after a few months of research.

Although Strava states total number of ascents (>34,000), the tabular data only shows the date and time of each user’s fastest ascent.

The most commonly scrambled Flatirons lines

The most popular scrambling lines on the Flatirons vary in grade from Class 4 to 5.6. While the more precise term for ascending routes assigned a rock climbing grade of 5.0 and above is free soloing, the local vernacular for ascending the Flatirons without a rope is “scrambling.” Mountain Project lists 1,427 climbing routes (358 at 5.6 or easier) in the Flatirons. Of all these routes, around 100 are traditionally scrambled. However, the routes documented in the table below account for the most ascents, with the Second, First, and Third Flatirons being the most popular, respectively.

Flatirons scrambling risk: Accidents and fatalities

The week of December 16, 2024 was a terrible one in Boulder. Tragically, two scrambling fatalities occurred. These accidents served as the impetus for me to investigate Flatiron scrambling incidents and ultimately estimate the mortality rate of climbing the Flatirons without a rope.

In my research leveraging public sources, I have determined that since 1922, 16 deaths have resulted from Flatirons scrambling. And since 2001, 65 incidents have occurred on the Flatirons. Regarding the fatalities, eight took place since the turn of the millennium. All fatalities except one were men. The age of the victims ranged from 17 to 49 (with an average age of 28). It is worth noting that of the eight fatalities since 2002, the majority (75%) involved people with known climbing and/or scrambling experience.

The 65 incidents that occurred since 2001 include the eight recent fatalities and involved a total of 85 individuals. These varied from incidents involving very experienced climbers who have scrambled the Flatirons hundreds of times, to hikers that impulsively decided to scramble, and everything in between.

Most incidents since 2001 occurred on the First and Second Flatirons. The incidents predominantly involved males and particularly males under 30 years old. About half the incidents involved rescuing stuck scramblers, while the other half consisted of a combination of falls and fatalities.

What is the mortality risk of Flatirons scrambling?

The mortality risk associated with many activities is well known. For example, the mortality risk of driving (per outing; U.S., 2022) is one in 5,000,000. For BASE jumping — generally considered one of the most risky outdoor activities — the mortality risk (per jump; Norway, 1995 to 2005) was one in about 2,000.

 

Using Strava data, I estimated the mortality risk of Flatirons scrambling to be one in about 100,000. In other words, 50 times riskier than driving in the U.S. and 50 times less risky than BASE jumping.

This is the risk you face with one Flatirons scrambling outing. If you scramble the Flatirons more frequently, then you should also consider the cumulative probability risk (essentially the potential excess mortality rate). In other words, the more often you scramble the Flatirons, the greater your risk of death over time.

Perception of risk in scrambling and similar activities

Over the last eight and a half years, I have scrambled 265 Flatirons routes on average per year. This results in an excess (additional) mortality rate of 0.3%. According to the CDC WONDER database (2018-2023), the probability of death for a 53-year-old (my age) male in the U.S. is approximately 0.7%. As such, by scrambling 265 routes a year I am increasing my mortality risk by 43%.

Prior to researching these scrambling incidents and estimating the related mortality risk, I felt pretty sure that the risk was lower. In retrospect, I may have been experiencing a form of cognitive dissonance—that is, believing that scrambling is safer than it actually is because I enjoy it so much and because I do it so often. This realization prompted deeper reflection on the potential risks I face and the possible ways I can mitigate them.

Below are some of the major risks of scrambling, as well as a possible solution for at least partially mitigating that risk:

• Hand or footholds breaking: Test holds before committing weight
• Rock or other objects falling: Wear a helmet
• Weather changes. Check forecasts; abort or call 911 for rescue if weather worsens.
• Scrambling off-route into more difficult terrain: Study route descriptions; go with or follow experienced scramblers.
• Complacency: Pause before each outing to recognize this risk.

Of all the above potential risk factors — in my opinion — complacency is likely the largest risk, particularly among experienced scramblers. Luckily, it is also one of the potential risks that you have the most control over. Since conducting this research, I have taken a moment before commencing a scrambling outing to remind myself that complacency is a risk factor that is in my control.

My main takeaway from researching these incidents is that informing yourself of the risks and potential ways to mitigate them is a worthy endeavor for any risky activity.

Simon Testa is a Boulder resident and the author of Best Flatiron Scrambles. As a regular Flatirons scrambler, he wanted to investigate incidents involving ropeless climbing on the Flatirons and consider potential ways to mitigate the risks.

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