Who’s Going to Podium at the Paris Olympics? Here’s Our Predictions

Ever since last summer’s World Championships, fans of comp climbing have wondered who is most likely to win Olympic gold in Paris. The speculating only intensified as additional Olympic qualification events (and an Olympic Qualifier Series) grew the roster of qualified Olympian climbers.

At this point, there’s no harm in finally putting those podium picks in print. To help with that, I’ve enlisted some friends who also happen to be members of the climbing media: Natalie Berry, editor at UKClimbing.com; Tyler Norton, host of the Plastic Weekly YouTube channel; Josh Hurlebaus, creator of Speed-Climbing.com; and Eddie Fowke, former IFSC photographer. The banter below is simply crash-pad conversation—of course, nobody has any idea what will actually happen at the Paris Olympics, and the fact that anyone could win is why we’ll all tune in starting August 5.

Who Will Win Men’s Combined (Boulder & Lead)

Natalie Berry: Sorato Anraku, the teenage star, doesn’t seem fazed by his meteoric rise. He has plenty of Olympic Games to look forward to at his age, so he should be feeling like he has nothing to lose and everything to gain in Paris. What’s more, just getting there is an achievement in itself for a young Japanese athlete on such a competitive national team.

• Natalie’s podium picks: Sorato Anraku (gold), Jakob Schubert (silver), Toby Roberts (bronze)

Tyler Norton: Sorato Anraku had a [World Cup] debut unlike any we’ve seen since Adam Ondra and David Lama came onto the scene, but location and experience will be to Anraku’s disadvantage at the Paris Olympics. Jakob Schubert will edge Anraku out one last time, while Ondra will learn from the mistakes of the Tokyo Olympics and claim the medal that destiny has reserved for him.

• Tyler’s picks: Jakob Schubert (gold), Sorato Anraku (silver), Adam Ondra (bronze)

Josh Hurlebaus: I’m a huge Sorato Anraku fan. It’s hard not to be, right? He’s young, he climbs hard, and he competes darn well. If he’d won only a few comps, I’d be worried about Olympic nerves. But I’m not sure anything rattles him, given how strong he has performed these last two [World Cup] seasons.

• Josh’s picks: Sorato Anraku (gold), Jakob Schubert (silver), Tomoa Narasaki (bronze)

Eddie Fowke: I believe we are going to see a battle of youth vs. experience—and youth is going to win on this occasion. My pick to win is reigning Olympic champion Alberto Ginés López, who will take victory over Sorato Anraku and Toby Roberts. I feel the margins will be tiny in the men’s field, and I give the nod to the youth based on their adaptability to the forecasted hot conditions, and their quicker recovery between rounds.

• Eddie’s picks: Alberto Ginés López (gold), Sorato Anraku (silver), Toby Roberts (bronze)

John Burgman: A lot of people were picking Japan’s Tomoa Narasaki to win at the Tokyo Olympics; somewhat surprisingly, he did not even medal there. I think he will have a better showing in Paris—but I don’t think it will be enough to stop a career-capstone performance from veteran Jakob Schubert or the youthful momentum of Sorato Anraku.

• John’s Picks: Jakob Schubert (gold), Sorato Anraku (silver), Tomoa Narasaki (bronze)

Who Will Win Women’s Combined (Boulder & Lead)

Natalie Berry: Janja Garnbret is maybe an obvious pick [for gold], but given what she managed to achieve at the Tokyo Olympics—despite the pressure of a first Games and with the added uncertainty of speed (and a blip in qualification)—I think she has the mental game to do it all again in Paris in her two best disciplines. Her boulder talent, in particular, is unmatched. Ai Mori will challenge her in lead, but I’m not sure the margin after boulder will be big enough.

• Natalie’s picks: Janja Garnbret (gold), Natalia Grossman (silver), Ai Mori (bronze)

Tyler Norton: Janja Garnbret’s imperious reign of the Combined podium will remain unchallenged, but Ai Mori will use the lead-biased format to take silver over bouldering favorites like Oriane Bertone and Miho Nonaka. Brooke Raboutou’s well-rounded skill set will land her in third place, knocking her friend and USA teammate Natalia Grossman off the podium.

• Tyler’s picks: Janja Garnbret (gold), Ai Mori (silver), Brooke Raboutou (bronze)

Josh Hurlebaus: A healthy Janja Garnbret is as close to unbeatable as they come. I understand she is a “safe” pick, but she’s not likely to be wrecked by the bouldering setting style—unlike some shorter climbers. She’s done it all before and will cement her career with the only thing harder than winning the Olympics—repeating as Olympic champ.

• Josh’s picks: Janja Garnbret (gold), Natalia Grossman (silver), Ai Mori (bronze)

Eddie Fowke: It’s hard to look past Janja Garnbret, who has to be favorite on competition pedigree alone. I expect to see American second-generation star Brooke Raboutou and Great Britain’s newcomer Erin McNeice also on the podium, which might surprise some, but with others like US star Natalia Grossman hampered by injury, or others compromised by their specialization in either lead or boulder, I’m going for the above as my podium.

• Eddie’s picks: Janja Garnbret (gold), Brooke Raboutou (silver), Erin McNeice (bronze)

John Burgman: For the sake of variety, I want to go against the grain and pick someone other than Janja Garnbret to win. Yet, anyone who has watched the World Cups in recent seasons knows that predicting anyone other than Garnbret to win is just illogical. That doesn’t mean that someone other than Garnbret can’t shock the world—it’s possible, with Natalia Grossman, Brooke Raboutou, and Ai Mori being among the likeliest contenders. But all cogent signs and signals point to this Olympics being another Garnbret showcase.

• John’s picks: Janja Garnbret (gold), Natalia Grossman (silver), Brooke Raboutou (bronze)

Who Will Win Men’s Speed

Natalie Berry: I think the Chinese team is making huge progress across the board, and I think Peng Wu’s results and practice in the Olympic Qualifier Series will give him confidence.

• Natalie’s picks: Peng Wu (gold), Sam Watson (silver), Veddriq Leonardo (bronze)

Tyler Norton: Veddriq Leonardo will carry Indonesia’s rising flag all the way to the top by dodging the stumbles, falls, and false starts that plague his faster opponents. Jinbao Long will come in second in a close Big Final race, and Peng Wu will end in third place, cementing Asia’s new dominance of the Speed discipline.

• Tyler’s picks: Veddriq Leonardo (gold), Jinbao Long (silver), Peng Wu (bronze)

Josh Hurlebaus: This is probably the easiest prediction. Not because it’s guaranteed to be right, but when you look at his trajectory it’s hard to imagine someone beating him. And that person is Sam Watson. Not only is Sam Watson the world record holder, but he’s the only one posting training times that show that he is consistently at the world record level or faster.

• Josh’s picks: Sam Watson (gold), Peng Wu (silver), Veddriq Leonardo (bronze)

Eddie Fowke: In an event as explosive as speed, the one thing you can guarantee is that upsets will happen, and we could see a real lottery out there. I have gone for rising US star Samuel Watson to take the victory. If this kid isn’t on every sports-management company’s radar—with the LA Olympics only one Olympic cycle away—then said companies will be missing out. Of course, to win in Paris, Watson has to beat an incredible field; I see the podium completed by Jinbao Long and Veddriq Leonardo.

• Eddie’s picks: Sam Watson (gold), Jinbao Long (silver), Veddriq Leonardo (bronze)

John Burgman: Sam Watson will break his own world record (which he has already broken in practice) and win it all. The rest of the podium will basically be a coin flip, but I expect China’s team to excel.

• John’s Picks: Sam Watson (gold), Peng Wu (silver), Jinbao Long (bronze)

Who Will Win Women’s Speed

Natalie Berry: Ola [Aleksandra Miroslaw] came close to the podium at the Tokyo Olympics (fourth place) and it would be the perfect story if she takes the top spot in the single discipline in Paris. I think she has it in her!

• Natalie’s picks: Aleksandra Miroslaw (gold), Desak Made Rita Kusuma Dewi (silver), Emma Hunt (bronze)

Tyler Norton: Veteran Polish speedster Ola [Aleksandra] Miroslaw has been in her “Janja era” since the Tokyo Olympics, and she’s deservedly the favorite for Paris gold. Desak Made [Rita Kusuma Dewi] should shake off her false start in Wujiang and earn the silver that she so commonly wears. Bronze is anyone’s guess, but I lean towards Lijuan Deng adding another medal to her collection.

• Tyler’s picks: Aleksandra Miroslaw (gold), Desak Made Rita Kusuma Dewi (silver), Lijuan Deng (bronze)

Josh Hurlebaus: It’s hard not to go with Ola [Aleksandra Miroslaw]. She’s the current world record holder and lives in time ranges that other athletes only dream of. Up until Emma Hunt, Miroslaw was the only woman to make me believe that a sub-6 [seconds] would happen on the women’s side, and Miroslaw has a wealth of finals experience. That being said, Emma Hunt seems to be better every time we see her on the wall. And unlike Miroslaw, who has competed under the comfort of being the world record holder by a large margin, Hunt has had consistent experience racing people her speed or faster. Now that the world record gap is much smaller, will that pressure affect Miroslaw? Will the combination of Olympic pressure and having close races be too much? My brain says that Miroslaw’s experience and dominance will see her through to the gold, but my gut says Emma Hunt will pull off the win.

• Josh’s picks: Emma Hunt (gold), Aleksandra Miroslaw (silver), Aleksandra Kalucka (bronze)

Eddie Fowke: It’s hard to go past Aleksandra Miroslaw getting it done, but she will be pushed by the likes of her Polish countrywoman Aleksandra Kalucka and American Emma Hunt. (In saying that, breakthroughs can happen—and an all-Asian podium of athletes from Indonesia and China wouldn’t come as a surprise at all.)

• Eddie’s picks: Aleksandra Miroslaw (gold), Emma Hunt (silver), Aleksandra Kalucka (bronze)

John Burgman: Aleksandra Miroslaw has been on the speed throne for so long—and she has been a phenomenal and dominant champion for years—so I feel like we’re overdue for a changing of the guard. I think this Olympics will be Emma Hunt’s moment, and she’ll set a new world record along the way.

• John’s Picks: Emma Hunt (gold), Lijuan Deng (silver), Aleksandra Miroslaw (bronze)

Who/What Will Steal the Show?

Natalie Berry: I think speed will steal the show (again) for newcomers to the sport—especially now we have such a global representation of nations.

Tyler Norton: Speed climbing will steal the show. The rules are simple, the stakes are high, and the event doesn’t take three hours to declare a winner. Sam Watson and Emma Hunt are poised to become American heroes if they find medals: their races will be clipped, cropped, and shared so frequently that trad-daddies will have to delete their accounts. On another note, no climber attracts media attention like Alex Honnold—even if he’s only broadcast talent. The Olympics are smart to hire him. While the promised “Olympic bump” after the Tokyo Olympics never transpired at my local climbing gym, we welcomed first-timers citing Free Solo by the boatload.

Josh Hurlebaus: I see the men’s Combined having the highest overall drama among the events. There is less separation between the men, compared to Janja Garnbret and the other women. And in speed climbing, Bassa Mawem could steal the show; never doubt an athlete who is competing at home in the Olympics and who knows this might be their last shot. Also, there will be multiple world records broken/set in the women’s speed knockout rounds, with a final that pushes the world record close to 6.00.

Eddie Fowke: Janja Garnbret will steal the show, cementing her place in history with an absolute masterclass—and she’ll get the first-ever perfect score of 200 points.

John Burgman: We will witness several steal-showing moments. For starters, I envision a woman running 6:00 in speed, possibly even 5-point-something. Somewhat related to that, and at the risk of stating the obvious, the current Olympic records—which are now three years old—will get demolished in the very first men’s and women’s speed races in Paris. But the edge-of-your-seat viewing will be a razor-close battle between Natalia Grossman and Janja Garnbret in the boulder portion of the women’s Combined finals.

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