Habs Stats: The First 70 Games

For the tenth sequence in a row, the Habs have taken six or more points out of 10. The Habs have been one of the most consistent teams in the league, with only one three-game regular-time losing streak over the season, albeit they have not had any significant winning streaks either.

The most recent five-game sequence started with two losses out of three games but was followed by impressive wins versus the New York Islanders and the Carolina Hurricanes.

Statistically, the Habs continue to progress defensively with two back-to-back sequences above a 0.900 Save Percentage, giving up only 14 goals, third-best over the season so far. Jakub Dobes’ performances have undoubtedly contributed to those results but advanced stats suggest that the team’s defence has helped as well. In the last four games of the segment, the Habs were fourth in the league in High Danger Chance Percentage at 60%, meaning that they obtained 60% of the High Danger Chances over the period. They also ranked 13th in High Danger Chance Allowed over the same period, which is a stark improvement from the 22nd position over the season.

Although the power play has been keeping pace, the penalty kill continues to be an issue, giving up four goals in 12 attempts in this segment. The silver lining here is that the underlying stats are improving on the penalty kill.

Their defensive zone time at four-on-five is ranked sixth^–lowest in the league and neutral zone time on the kill is highest in the league. Looking back at these four goals, Emil Heineman’s and Matthew Schaefer’s goals vs the Islanders are both shots that Jacob Fowler would surely like to stop. One could also argue that Nikolaj Ehlers’ goal versus the Hurricanes that deflected on Mike Matheson’s stick is somewhat of an unlucky bounce and/or a bad post coverage by Dobes.

Advanced stats presented by NHL Edge are shown below. As the season approaches the end, it becomes more and more difficult to significantly improve their team metrics. The Habs are a team that continue to rely on shot quality and their top-of-the-league shooting percentage at 13.2%.

Compared to last year, the Habs are 13 points ahead after 70 games. The team reached 88 points on April 12th last year, in game No. 80. With 12 games remaining, they are within three points of last year’s total (and they’ve since gotten two points closer). At this rate, they would need only 12 points (a 0.500 points percentage) to reach 100 points. The last time the Habs reached more than 100 points was in the 2016-2017 season, when they finished at 103, putting them at the top of the Atlantic. They were ousted by the New York Rangers in six games in the first round that year.

Although the Habs haven’t moved in the standings, there has been movement below them for the Wild Card race. The Blue Jackets have moved into a top-three seed in the Metropolitan Division, pushing the Islanders down, and the Senators have moved ahead of the Red Wings in the battle for the last Wild Card spot.

Injuries are going to be key during the remaining three weeks of the season. The loss of Dylan Larkin and Andrew Copp affected the Red Wings’ performances as of late. Although they are back now, it seems that they are not performing at 100%. In Ottawa, their defensive core has been decimated with the loss of Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot, among others. It remains to be seen if the two new rookies Carter Yakemchuk and Jorian Donovan, who have played their first NHL games in the thick of the race, can take the workload over the rest of the season.

In Montreal, Josh Anderson has missed two games with a shoulder injury but returned versus Carolina. The team is well-equipped with good offensive depth players ready to jump in. As long as the core group remains healthy, they should be able to lock in their position for the playoffs. The team is also advantaged with the remaining schedule. They are currently ranked ninth in Schedule Difficulty but all teams chasing them are ranked higher. That said, two of the next three games versus Carolina and Tampa Bay are going to be significant challenges. April will be somewhat less demanding, with six of the last eight games versus teams currently outside the playoffs.